mitchnick Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I assume no word of the Para Euro means us "normal" people in this forum won't like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 LETS MONGER !! ** ABOUT JAN 22-23 ** *INFORMED DISCUSSION / SPECULATION** POINT #1 This system for JAN 22-23 has been showing up on the various long range weather models for several days. As we all know by now an Arctic outbreak is headed for the Midwest and the East Coast which arrives on Sunday and stays in place for most of next week. This arctic air mass is a critical difference between the system for January 22-23 and the previous weather systems over the last 10 days which at point LOOKED like they MIGHT bring some sort of winter weather to portions of the East Coast . If you go back and take a look at most of the significant East Coast winter storms over the past 70 years... most of feature arctic or semi Arctic air in place BEFORE the storm actually began. Occasionally there will be some situations of rain changing the snow or the cold air arriving "just in the nick of time" but for the most part the vast majority of significant East Coast winter storms have occurred when the Arctic air is in place BEFORE the event ever begins. POINT # 2 this system... no matter if it actually RAIN or SNOW ... appears to be a classic GULF / East Coast LOW MILLER A TYPE). These sorts of LOWs are much more favorable for significant winter weather across portions of NV VA WVA MD DEL as well as into se PA and NJ POINT #3 the second critical issue or variable with regard to this possible JAN 22-23... is the ** TIMING *** As impressive as the cold air is next week ... it is not going to last forever. The Southern System coming out of Texas and the Gulf coast will have to arrive in time so the cold air is still in place over the Middle Atlantic states. This FIRST image is the operational or **regular ** European model from Thursday afternoon. As you can see it shows a rain storm for the entire East Coast for January 23-24. The reason for this has to do with the upper air pattern. The regular European model slows as this LOW down by over developing it in the upper levels the atmosphere into what is called a *** CUTOFF LOW***. These sorts a systems move very slowly and as a result by the time the southern LOW reaches the Carolina Coast.... all the cold air is gone and the rain snow line is north of Albany in Northern New York State and over Northern New England! get_orig_img.png However lets looks at IMAGE #2 shows the European ENSEMBLE from this Thursday afternoons model run. As you can see it has a **vastly** different setup and shows a major snowstorm underway across portions of the Ohio Valley... the Tennessee Valley ...all the middle Atlantic... and a good portion of New England JAN 22-23. 192EPS.png The difference here is NUMBER #3 that the European Ensemble does NOT slow the southern LOW down. The Low keeps moving which means that it arrives when the cold air is still in place across the East Coast ---and that results in a major snowstorm. 204EPS5H.jpg Hey DT a couple of things first off fantastic post!! Looking at the way the current pattern is I favor the fast solution meaning no cut off which favors snow I would think.... Thinking back to big storms in Phl superstorm March 13th 1993 temps day before high 45 and all days prior were generally in the 50s and 40s...when it started snowing temp was like 40 then the cold crashed in this certainly would be an exception to this rule....I think this was a triple phased storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I assume no word of the Para Euro means us "normal" people in this forum won't like? It's not out yet on WxBell; I think SV gets it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I was just looking at the 500 maps on the gfs across the Pacific and into North America and I wonder if a truly massive shot of arctic air is at least a possibility over the next month or so. I confess that I didn't come up with this idea on my own as 1984-1985 analogs have shown up several times on the CPC site. It sure looks like it wouldn't take much on the gfs maps. Right now there isn't much in the way of remarkable cold over Alaska and northern Canada but that can change pretty quickly. If it were to happen I sure hope we have a little snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 My "GUT" feeling is that we will luck into one or perhaps one and a half snows sandwiched between intervals of slightly warmer than average and slightly drier than average. I will eat a bowling ball covered in Ketchup if our snow exceeds the seasonal mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's not out yet on WxBell; I think SV gets it first. It's not working on SV... Somethings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think this is more imagined than reality since there are almost no changes to the model itself in the GFSx (it's a DA package, with a small change to some land surface stuff to address a 2m T/Td bias and perhaps one other very minor change to a reference pressure in the SL scheme or something). My observations were based on only a handful of times I've looked and all at storms at very long leads that ops aren't really meant to be used for. Small sample combined with the wrong use and I'm sure I just got a bad vibe for no good reason but the few times I did look it had a vastly different and usually over amped solution then the op and has turned out wrong each time. Again no data and small sample so I'm sure the model is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Hey DT a couple of things first off fantastic post!! Looking at the way the current pattern is I favor the fast solution meaning no cut off which favors snow I would think.... Thinking back to big storms in Phl superstorm March 13th 1993 temps day before high 45 and all days prior were generally in the 50s and 40s...when it started snowing temp was like 40 then the cold crashed in this certainly would be an exception to this rule....I think this was a triple phased storm. Super storm of '93 was so exceptional you really should not compare. Phasing, blocking cold, incredible dynamics, so amazing and in early Spring nonetheless! Not worth a discussion but you can read volumes on that storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The 00z GFS looks different @ 114 hours. It is putting all its eggs into an earlier wave it looks like. This wave had been modeled to be just a minor disturbance that helped usher in cold air, but it LOOKS like it may be this wave that the 00z GFS is focusing on as the main storm...idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Interesting. This could be a case of a storm sneaking up on us. Look @ the 18z GFS @ 123 hrs you can see it had this same disturbance, but nothing really came of it. @ 120 hrs the 00z GFS looks like it may be forming a storm with this wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ^ I don't think it's a change in focus vs just throwing out the idea that the midweek disturbance might not get sheared to pieces. Of course if could effect things down the line. The sheared disturbance is what helped keep favorable confluence and colder air around longer for the later storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ^ I don't think it's a change in focus vs just throwing out the idea that the midweek disturbance might not get sheared to pieces. Of course if could effect things down the line. The sheared disturbance is what helped keep favorable confluence and colder air around longer for the later storm. To his credit, it is quite a bit different vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ^ I don't think it's a change in focus vs just throwing out the idea that the midweek disturbance might not get sheared to pieces. Of course if could effect things down the line. The sheared disturbance is what helped keep favorable confluence and colder air around longer for the later storm. Exactly....but I wonder if the midweek disturbance could actually be a legit low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 To his credit, it is quite a bit different vs 18z Oh, I wasn't discounting his post at all. Just that it doesn't mean there is nothing good coming on the heels. Lotsa waves and cold air for once...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Hey DT a couple of things first off fantastic post!! Looking at the way the current pattern is I favor the fast solution meaning no cut off which favors snow I would think.... Thinking back to big storms in Phl superstorm March 13th 1993 temps day before high 45 and all days prior were generally in the 50s and 40s...when it started snowing temp was like 40 then the cold crashed in this certainly would be an exception to this rule....I think this was a triple phased storm. Yeah that was literally a once in a lifetime event. I wouldn't use that storm as a point of reference... Unless of course we have something like it again... But likely we will not. At least not in out lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah, GFS is radically different vs 18z. I dunno know what to make of it and not even gonna try to predict it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Bob I'm actually wondering if maybe this mid week thing could be the main show because I doubt we get 2 major lows back to back....This is a huge departure from previous runs, but it could be one of those cases of a storm sneaking up on us, wouldn't be the first time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Oh, I wasn't discounting his post at all. Just that it doesn't mean there is nothing good coming on the heels. Lotsa waves and cold air for once...heh It's gonna try to cut this new found s/w. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Exactly....but I wonder if the midweek disturbance could actually be a legit low.Well we are nearing the inside day 7 zone so probably where we unravel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It looks so weird and messed up, not anyone was expecting something like this and I don't think this will happen. GFS has been wildly changing run to run lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's gonna try to cut this new found s/w. wtf I don't think it is going to cut, it just seems like a weak clipper like system I am a fan of the 2nd wave because of the PNA spike occuring with it. What sucks about this solution is now it basically destroys the 2nd wave which is the one we've been looking @. Idk wtf to make out of it....Either the 00z data found something or it is just a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I honestly don't know what to make of this. It's such a vast shift. I guess we gotta wait for other models to confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well we are nearing the inside day 7 zone so probably where we unravel. Are you implying that d9 on the ops doesn't go exactly as planned? Seriously man. You need to stop wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Everyone slow down and let it play out. lol, what? We're talking about this newfound wave. It's played out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol, what? We're talking about this newfound wave. It's played out already. lol....plus the 2nd one is completely sheared out because of this...this run is over. We'll find out from GGEM/EURO & ensembles if this is a blip or a new development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 So either this is the first of the 00z data that is going to begin trending towards this or it is complete garbage because none of the data has shown this yet....though we're talking about something 7-9 days out so it was possible something like this could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol....plus the 2nd one is completely sheared out because of this...this run is over. We'll find out from GGEM/EURO & ensembles if this is a blip or a new development. You know things are going awry when we wait for canada to fix our domestic problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just took a closer look @ the 18z GFS ensembles and there were actually a few that showed something like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 He is right, the wave we have been watching is completely gone, sheared to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Are you implying that d9 on the ops doesn't go exactly as planned? Seriously man. You need to stop wishcasting Well no and perhaps I'm a dick to keep reminding people these things. Tho I do think it's worth going back to winterwxluvr's comments that at a certain range even the ensembles don't necessarily tell you the right story. We've had so many times with models all locking in together at range only to see it fall apart later but it still sucks people back in every time. That said and as you know the pattern looks quite passable from here until about the time of that storm next week. Even after then it might be workable but it's not as good, and potentially we fully break down for at least a while. As has been said a number of times.. so many waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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