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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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I'd love to see this blow up. People been silly over it on the other social. It's like you're not even allowed to mention a good 'potential' pattern anymore or the wx police get ya. A reason the forums will live on. ;)

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we have no luck or bad luck. We are good at saying next though

This weekend is the first real chance we've had. I'd say both storms are juat bad luck. It wouldn't have taken all that much to get something at least modest out of the whole deal. It's been really stubborn up and down the coast though. We're far from being singled out here.

I haven't written off the Sunday deal yet. It's just a longshot with no noticeable favorable trend today across guidance.

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Bob where are you man, check out 177 hours

The idea has been supported with both the eps and Gefs for a couple days now. Looks like a decent chance considering the lead. Could easily go west but the cad sig showing up is encouraging. Waaay to far out there to get excited by an op run but nice to see the gfs following the more favorable cluster of solutions

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Problem by then is we're back into +AO/+NAO it seems. I mean yeah last two winters yada yada. But you can't feel comfortable with something ideal or close at such range when it doesn't need big shifts to suck.

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Problem by then is we're back into +AO/+NAO it seems. I mean yeah last two winters yada yada. But you can't feel comfortable with something ideal or close at such range when it doesn't need big shifts to suck.

 

Yea I'm not excited at all really, EURO is way inland anyway....well maybe we'll see a miracle on the 12z runs for Sun nights storm , night all 

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Yea I'm not excited at all really, EURO is way inland anyway....well maybe we'll see a miracle on the 12z runs for Sun nights storm , night all 

There's just so damned many waves for one thing. I counted just thru next Thur and there were 5 consolidated southern stream vorts.  Greatly diminishes any sort of confidence at range and causes assorted other problems.. tho perhaps less western ridge would be a good thing for the storm after the storm after the storm (or whatever one the 200 hr thingy is now).

 

I have to admit the sinking feeling of wasting time and futility has started to hit me more. We might need to reshuffle for a while and try again with better wavelengths .... tho I wouldn't be that shocked if Nino messes with that usual idea heading into late winter at least a bit.

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it's really rare to get more than 6" in immediate DC metro from a storm that goes to our west...It usually flips by then..

I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening.

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It looks like one of those setups where it will look good in the LR, but as we move closer it shifts NW because there is no 50/50....so I'd imagine, like I just said, that we'd need a shortwave to develop & strengthen later

Not saying the evolution or depiction of the GFS is right but this supposed sick setup that we were anticipating yielded us a trace of snow. So maybe a "non-ideal pattern" may do the trick to get us a snowstorm.
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There's just so damned many waves for one thing. I counted just thru next Thur and there were 5 consolidated southern stream vorts.  Greatly diminishes any sort of confidence at range and causes assorted other problems.. tho perhaps less western ridge would be a good thing for the storm after the storm after the storm (or whatever one the 200 hr thingy is now).

 

I have to admit the sinking feeling of wasting time and futility has started to hit me more. We might need to reshuffle for a while and try again with better wavelengths .... tho I wouldn't be that shocked if Nino messes with that usual idea heading into late winter at least a bit.

 

agreed...I think we'll score something measurable by the end of the month.  Might be that final week if not earlier..

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I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening.

 

TO me, and I am much further south but there is always a warm nose that sneaks in sooner than modeled on lows to the west unless cold air is being replenished. 

 

Also not seeing the confluence Heisenberg speaks of. 

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I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening.

didn't we get 10 inches last Feb with a west track
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I think one takeaway is we are continuing to see a decent antecedent air mass. One that at least gives us some wiggle room with the track. The euro showed the worst case. Right up the middle of the country like a middle finger. But the euro ens paint a decent picture irt the envelope of solutions. A good number of members give us snow with a west track. I'm fine with that even though we know it's not pretty at some point. And totally agree about the gfs. A foot from a west track is not happening.

 

me too...often it changes to freezing drizzle/drizzle or mix or light rain or dries out quickly.  We flip a lot, but often it isn't a big deal.  I think sometimes people overreact to a flip.  Usually it isn't driving rain and a temp spike where we flood away all our snow....

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