USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It looks like the lead shortwave is further north and weaker on the 18z GFS compared to previous runs so the cold air shot doesn't move far enough south before the second low arrives with the precip. However, the 18z GFS op shows a decent amount of potential coastal storms afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Blah blah. It ain't happening. We're need to get some frost first Going to see snow before we get frost in the ground this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Sucks you moved to death valley. Permanent? Oh lol, I left actually only lived there in November. Just haven't updated my location. I'm in good old Waterbury again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Starting an event thread 6 days out. This would have been an instant weenie tag 6 or 7 years ago. Absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 GYX told us to "cross our fingers" But local news is going to town on this. It's all about clicks and likes, so it's hard to take a steady approach with storms. I think our winter forecasts have gotten worse since we started releasing snow totals 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Meh meh and more meh Move N of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 gfs not bad for berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 0z GGEM is a lot colder than the GFS. It even has NYC below freezing at 132 hours lol It pops a miller B right off NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Damn Snow88 you beat me to it, 00z CMC is all snow by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Haven't seen one of these for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Steve which model is that, by the way, the 00z GFS is much colder, -13C at 850mb for the 29th OES enhancement and full snow fall on the 00z CMC. I can't wait for the EURO tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 CMC is pretty damn cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z EURO is rolling in, out to hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z EURO is rolling in, out to hour 72. Well? Details brother..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Well? Details brother..... Second that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Well? Details brother..... A tickle warmer aloft at 120 hours as the WAA really starts to kick in. 00z Tuesday 0oC is still hanging out down around ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 By the time precip arrives 18z Tuesday 700 mb is above freezing across western CT, 850 is above freezing to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Verbatim it would ping to Eek. But there will be some wicked CAD. 0oC at 700 mb at LCI, but -10oC at 850 at IZG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah 850mb temps are cold, I think it can be large enough at the base of the column for it to transition from snow to rain to snow again before reaching the ground. OES event looks possible on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah 850mb temps are cold, I think it can be large enough at the base of the column for it to transition from snow to rain to snow again before reaching the ground. OES event looks possible on Tuesday. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Out to hour 144 now, 850mb temps still below freezing. Still looks like it goes from snow to rain mix. Will be interested to see what the hour 240 looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah I mean it is possible, but not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Verbatim it would ping to Eek. But there will be some wicked CAD. 0oC at 700 mb at LCI, but -10oC at 850 at IZG. Can you explain that using different terms? Just learning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Pretty classic SWFE look on the Euro, Lakes Region on NE gets saved by a late developing low pressure in the Gulf of Maine. 850 mb even tries to develop a closed low out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Can you explain that using different terms? Just learning here. The Euro would sleet all the way into central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The Euro would sleet all the way into central NH. Cool now thats something I could understand. Thanks. Even a sleet storm would be plowable for me with some of the accounts I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 HFD would have about 0.25" QPF of a least a sub-freezing sounding (albeit probably not the best snow growth towards the end of that 6 hours). Then about 0.50" QPF with temps above freezing from 700 down through 925 mb. Surface temps probably below freezing in some areas, so pockets of freezing rain. Then the Euro spits out another 0.30" QPF, though dry slotting probably means show over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Scott will be happy though, the Euro has a nice cold tuck Wednesday. Tickles 40 at BOS at 12z, then crashes to 32 by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Ran some grids using 2/3 Euro to 1/3 GFS for temps aloft next week. Straight even blend of all models for QPF and PoP. GFS snow ratios. That far out I was the only office with any QPF grids, so that's why you can't see anything outside my borders. Obviously this is a bit generalized due to the time range, but you get the idea. There was also a strip of icing (around 0.10") through southern NH and up the ME coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah 850mb temps are cold, I think it can be large enough at the base of the column for it to transition from snow to rain to snow again before reaching the ground. OES event looks possible on Tuesday. Ding ding ding we have a weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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