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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Nice stable 3 wave pattern there, Pack. All of the + height anoms are in the wrong places.

It's locked in. That's my fear is this pattern is just to stable. People say we cannot sustain this pattern through winter but why not we have been in this same pattern for well over a month or two now. I think this year we see extremes but on the wrong side like we are already.
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It's locked in. That's my fear is this pattern is just to stable. People say we cannot sustain this pattern through winter but why not we have been in this same pattern for well over a month or two now. I think this year we see extremes but on the wrong side like we are already.

 

Like I said, our weather now is one of extremes. Either the pattern lasts throughout winter, or it flips like a switch and goes to the other extreme. There doesn't seem to be any gradual changes or "normal" weather anymore. It's either one end of the extreme or the other.

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Like I said, our weather now is one of extremes. Either the pattern lasts throughout winter, or it flips like a switch and goes to the other extreme. There doesn't seem to be any gradual changes or "normal" weather anymore. It's either one end of the extreme or the other.

I agree brick. Either we get stuck in this awful pattern or we flip hard the other way. I hope we flip but this is an extremely stable pattern we are in.
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Jon won't like the new CFSv2

You're right I don't. Obviously a step backwards and if the pattern that's producing that image made sense I'd worry, but it doesn't make sense and CFSv2 is likely struggling here.

 

Here's the last 30 runs:

sybRHPI.png

 

and the latest

S0LjPfK.png

 

The deep negatives over Alaska and Greenland don't match up with El Nino patterns in January. We're expecting a pacific or gulf of AK low as seen in the 1st 30 runs and the newest run wants to elongate that over AK and have a large ridge undercutting it...that's about as +++AO/NAO you can get. I'm surprised it's not warmer for the month with that look. Overall I don't buy it. Not because it's warm but because it doesn't make sense, the El Nino isn't even expected to weaken until later this spring.

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CANSIPS/JAMSTEC are for suckers. CFS has been spot on and this is what it's showing for Jan. Early Jan flip...LOL. Feb's not dead yet...yet.

You should post the CFS snow maps for the month of January . JB was raising a glass to them yesterday lol

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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New JMA isn't anything to write home about and is pretty much as expected. Weeks 3&4 are averaged in this model and that's the first two weeks of January, so the JMA is saying a large shakeup in the pattern likely won't occur before Jan 15th, however that doesn't mean it's not capable of producing snow in that time period, it would just be limited to the mid-atlantic states. The ridge is more elongated to the north than the previous run, as well as a more elongated trough over the south, which is a good thing....baby steps though. 

 

CQUcghG.png

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WSI's EVPN analog model for Jan...it's done well in the past.  Good news it looks cooler than Dec, LOL...#yikes

 

Wow.  That and the CFSV2 are basically going persistence.  Hard to bet against it.  Like I said in the banter thread, the analogs from here on out are pretty split as are the dynamic models.  I'm personally forecasting +2 degrees F in my area. I'd probably go with dead 0 for RDU south though.

 

EDIT: For January

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Wow.  That and the CFSV2 are basically going persistence.  Hard to bet against it.  Like I said in the banter thread, the analogs from here on out are pretty split as are the dynamic models.  I'm personally forecasting +2 degrees F in my area. I'd probably go with dead 0 for RDU south though.

 

EDIT: For January

 

Yeah I really don't think the CFS isn't gonna change much until the pattern actually changes at this point, I still think the models are sniffing out some decent changes by Jan 1, how long and how big those changes are is certainly not clear at all

 

Its the long range of the GFS but the model has had something around the end of Dec early Jan for a few days now in the SE....again its lala land sooooooo take with huge pinch of salt BUT its nice to see blue over the SE which isn't something we have seen hardly at all in the operational model runs even in the fantasy range....

 

 

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Yeah I really don't think the CFS isn't gonna change much until the pattern actually changes at this point, I still think the models are sniffing out some decent changes by Jan 1, how long and how big those changes are is certainly not clear at all

 

Its the long range of the GFS but the model has had something around the end of Dec early Jan for a few days now in the SE....again its lala land sooooooo take with huge pinch of salt BUT its nice to see blue over the SE which isn't something we have seen hardly at all in the operational model runs even in the fantasy range....

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png

 

Have to start somewhere. 

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Yeah I really don't think the CFS isn't gonna change much until the pattern actually changes at this point, I still think the models are sniffing out some decent changes by Jan 1, how long and how big those changes are is certainly not clear at all

 

Its the long range of the GFS but the model has had something around the end of Dec early Jan for a few days now in the SE....again its lala land sooooooo take with huge pinch of salt BUT its nice to see blue over the SE which isn't something we have seen hardly at all in the operational model runs even in the fantasy range....

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png

Yeah it's the GFS but the recent trend in fantasy land is actually showing a pattern that makes sense, GOA low which all but guaranetees a +PNA, only issue is the ridge over the NE. Get that GOA low in the right place to pump that +PNA and we have a chance even in this crappy pattern as seen from the recent GFS runs. The models are getting in range for the switch to -AO/-NAO in Jan for most El Ninos so it will continue to pump out fantasy solutions. I would like to get some agreement on the GEFS and then the EPS for the 10-day and I'll get excited.

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AO is still crappy, I'm sure he doesn't think that will change until after Jan based on his QBO graphs

Yeah he was saying Feb before that turned around if it does. The AO has sucked for the last few winters . As long as we can get help from the EPO and pna we will have our chances . Now clearly the EPO won't lock in like it did last year . But anything is better than nothing at this point . I scored the last two winters with a positive NAO /AO

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Euro weeklies aren't too bad for Week 4

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/677613037147332608

..ridge location follows Bastardi's idea for January I believe, he'll be harping on this run tomorrow.

so basically, for Bastardis winter forecast anomalies , as a whole, to verify, Jan and Feb, will basically have to be about -12 and -12, respectively !?
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Euro weeklies aren't too bad for Week 4

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/677613037147332608

 

..ridge location follows Bastardi's idea for January I believe, he'll be harping on this run tomorrow.

 

I would be way happy with seasonal with occasional periods of blockiness...the end of the 18Z GFS was pretty weird

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AO is still crappy, I'm sure he doesn't think that will change until after Jan based on his QBO graphs

It's crappy still through week 4 but heights in general around the pole look much much better. The ao basically creeps down through the run. And there are even hints of above normal heights on the means. Not a negative ao or anything but far weaker than its been.

I find this interesting to the extent that Jan 83 raged + during the first half of Jan. There were some daily readings approaching +5 during that stretch before the reversal towards neutral and eventually negative. Part of me wants to believe that the next 2 weeks are the peak of the + ao regime we've been in for weeks on end. IF the flip is going to happen this year (and that's a big if) we could potentially be ahead of schedule meaning it happens in mid-late Jan instead of Feb.

All we can do is watch and wait. Everybody should be encouraged with the latest weeklies. By far the best run in quite a while.

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It's crappy still through week 4 but heights in general around the pole look much much better. The ao basically creeps down through the run. And there are even hints of above normal heights on the means. Not a negative ao or anything but far weaker than its been.

I find this interesting to the extent that Jan 83 raged + during the first half of Jan. There were some daily readings approaching +5 during that stretch before the reversal towards neutral and eventually negative. Part of me wants to believe that the next 2 weeks are the peak of the + ao regime we've been in for weeks on end. IF the flip is going to happen this year (and that's a big if) we could potentially be ahead of schedule meaning it happens in mid-late Jan instead of Feb.

All we can do is watch and wait. Everybody should be encouraged with the latest weeklies. By far the best run in quite a while.

BOb have u seen the monthlies word is it looks good? Phase 7 on the Mjo!

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