Hoosier Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 Pretty crazy that BUF hasn't had snow. By now you'd think they would've picked up some lake effect by accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Yeah, I don't see a reason to bet on suppression for the forseeable future. Can never say never with an individual storm but by and large, most storms should tend to run inland/cut. It should be reasonably active in the region even if it's a struggle to get cold enough for snow. On the flip side, look at yesterday. Was anyone online following that system with any sort of real interest? Lets face it, it's snow/cold or nobody cares during DJF. We just had a real snooze of a year and we are looking at possibly 3 more straight months of boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 On the flip side, look at yesterday. Was anyone online following that system with any sort of real interest? Lets face it, it's snow/cold or nobody cares during DJF. We just had a real snooze of a year and we are looking at possibly 3 more straight months of boredom. Even if winter is subpar, I doubt it will be as bad as you're suggesting. Should have some chances. I'm with Stebo...give me precip and eventually something will work out. It can't snow if there's no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Even if winter is subpar, I doubt it will be as bad as you're suggesting. Should have some chances. I'm with Stebo...give me precip and eventually something will work out. It can't snow if there's no precip.Yep, it would be something if we maintained above normal precipitation through the winter, that would buck the El Nino trends for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Pretty crazy that BUF hasn't had snow. By now you'd think they would've picked up some lake effect by accident. Interestingly Akron-Canton (CAK) is also looking at a similar delayed start to the accumulating snow season. I would have thought there'd be more years where they wouldn't have had measurable snowfall by December, but there are only 4. Latest first measurable snowfalls for CAK: Dec 2nd, 1985 Dec 8th, 2009 Dec 16th, 1998 Dec 25th, 2001 It's been 273 days since CLE last recorded an inch of snow. The longest gaps between 1 inch snowfalls at CLE: 291 days - 2012 282 days - 1998 281 days - 2006 275 days - 1995 CLE should easily move into the second longest stretch between 1 inch snowfalls, but would have to make it to December 17th to have the longest such gap. Certainly some snow futility going on in the eastern Great Lakes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Interestingly Akron-Canton (CAK) is also looking at a similar delayed start to the accumulating snow season. I would have thought there'd be more years where they wouldn't have had measurable snowfall by December, but there are only 4. Latest first measurable snowfalls for CAK: Dec 2nd, 1985 Dec 8th, 2009 Dec 16th, 1998 Dec 25th, 2001 It's been 273 days since CLE last recorded an inch of snow. The longest gaps between 1 inch snowfalls at CLE: 291 days - 2012 282 days - 1998 281 days - 2006 275 days - 1995 CLE should easily move into the second longest stretch between 1 inch snowfalls, but would have to make it to December 17th to have the longest such gap. Certainly some snow futility going on in the eastern Great Lakes right now. And long term doesn't look good for strong El Ninos for white on X-mas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Even if winter is subpar, I doubt it will be as bad as you're suggesting. Should have some chances. I'm with Stebo...give me precip and eventually something will work out. It can't snow if there's no precip.I would tend to agree. We have already had a very impressive November snowstorm in the region this year, we are on an excellent run of snowy winters regardless of the pattern (snowfall avg is noticeably increasing), and the jet is juiced with a volatile el nino in place. Will Detroit look like Barrow meets Marquette as it has the last 2 winters? Absolutely not. The chance is very real we have a subpar winter. But will there be plenty of chances thus winter? Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 And long term doesn't look good for strong El Ninos for white on X-mas. Some ugly stats but picking a single day is likely a bad coincidence. I will have to look up detroits white christmas stats in strong Nino as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 So it's down to January and February for something decent to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 So it's down to January and February for something decent to happen. According to Hoosier, watch the Dec. 20th-25th time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 So it's down to January and February for something decent to happen.No. Maybe for more sustained winter...but absolutely a decent storm can happen in an overall warm december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Looking back to see what it was on Christmas Eve and Day here in 1997. There was a dusting of snow with light LES on the Eve. Except for being a blow torch on the 10th (69°), and in the 40s from the 14th-18th, it was typical temp wise - precip another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2015 Author Share Posted November 29, 2015 Looking back to see what it was on Christmas Eve and Day here in 1997. There was a dusting of snow with light LES on the Eve. Except for being a blow torch on the 10th (69°), and in the 40s from the 14th-18th, it was typical temp wise - precip another story. There was a synoptic system on the 24th...heaviest totals were farther west but a couple inches in Chicago. I remember it well...started ripping fat flakes in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Christmas Eve storm of 97 was one of my favorite snowstorms as it happened on xmas eve. Started sleeting later in the morning, and then quickly shifted over to very heavy snowfall all afternoon into the evening. Was a very wet snow, but it added up to over 8" IIRC. I was living in the QC at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 There was a synoptic system on the 24th...heaviest totals were farther west but a couple inches in Chicago. I remember it well...started ripping fat flakes in the afternoon. Now I remember that one. I saw the aftermath of it - was out of town up in Madison I believe. I remember the snow being frozen solid like a rock when I got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Looking back to see what it was on Christmas Eve and Day here in 1997. There was a dusting of snow with light LES on the Eve. Except for being a blow torch on the 10th (69°), and in the 40s from the 14th-18th, it was typical temp wise - precip another story. Dec 10, 1997 featured my favorite snowstorm of that 97-98 winter here. At 5" it was the biggest of the season. You sure it was 69F there? Here are White Christmases at Detroit during El Ninos. Cant stress enough though this is purely anecdotal, as any random day can have anything. Can have white Christmases in the worst winters and bare Christmases in the best. STRONG Dec 25….snow…snowdepth 1877 ------ 0 ------ 0 1888 ------ 0 ------ 0 1896 ------ T ------ 5 1899 ------ T ------ T 1902 ----- 3.3 ----- 7 1940 ------ 0 ------ 0 1957 ------ 0 ------ 0 1972 ------ 0 ------ 0 1982 ------ 0 ------ 0 1991 ------ 0 ------ 0 1997 ------ T ------ 0 MOD Dec 25….snow…snowdepth 1911 ------ 0 ------ 0 1914 ------ 0 ------ 8 1918 ------ T ------ 0 1925 ----- 3.6 ----- 4 1930 ------ 0 ------ 3 1941 ------ 0 ------ 0 1965 ----- 0.5 ----- T 1968 ------ 0 ------ T 1986 ------ 0 ------ 0 1987 ------ 0 ------ 0 1994 ------ 0 ------ 0 2002 ----- 3.8 ----- 5 2006 ------ 0 ------ 0 2009 ------ 0 ------ T WEAK Dec 25….snow…snowdepth 1904 ------ T ------ 1 1905 ----- 0.4 ----- T 1923 ----- 1.0 ----- 1 1939 ------ 0 ------ 0 1951 ----- 6.2 ---- 13 1953 ------ 0 ------ T 1963 ------ T ------ 3 1969 ------ T ------ 3 1976 ------ T ------ T 1977 ------ T ------ T 2004 ------ T ------ 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 CFS locked in a torch December on its last daily run of November and has been very consistent with that depiction. The past few runs did transition to more of a -PNA look on the 2m anomaly map, most notably on the 11/30 run. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Cfs weeklies show those insane warm anamolies really scouring out by christmas. Will be interesting to see if this translates to a perfectly timed cold and snow shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 CFS locked in a torch December on its last daily run of November and has been very consistent with that depiction. The past few runs did transition to more of a -PNA look on the 2m anomaly map, most notably on the 11/30 run. Sent from my SM-G900V 11/30 run had the heat focused slightly more east with more prominent cool anomalies in the south west US. Sizzlin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 man that rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Cfs weeklies show those insane warm anamolies really scouring out by christmas. Will be interesting to see if this translates to a perfectly timed cold and snow shot.11/29 run you referred to, after going back to appearing more Niñaish like much of November has been in week 3, almost looks more like the straight strong Niño composite in week 4 with lower heights implied across the southern tier of the US. On the 500 mb plot, still have the positive height anomalies from the northern Plains to off the east coast. No end in sight to the raging +NAO and +AO either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 It always seems that December is always burned the worst in a "Bad Winter Pattern". I told my snowmobile buddies to fill their calendars up with work until at least Dec 20th... It's obviously a foregone conclusion that December will be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 11/29 run you referred to, after going back to appearing more Niñaish like much of November has been in week 3, almost looks more like the straight strong Niño composite in week 4 with lower heights implied across the southern tier of the US. On the 500 mb plot, still have the positive height anomalies from the northern Plains to off the east coast. No end in sight to the raging +NAO and +AO either. I dont put much faith in the cfs, so I pretty much just glance at temp anomaly maps on tropicaltidbits. Definitely didnt analyze it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 The final run of the month turned wetter for December, so that's nice, but generally speaking I don't put as much faith in the precip output as temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 The ensembles certainly show improvement toward the middle of December. It doesn't have to be bitter cold by then to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I can believe that our wet streak will continue. Not too hard to imagine that. We just need to get the moisture and the cold air to meet up together. Going to be boring for awhile I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Yeah getting some hints now of some cold and maybe a more snowy period by the middle of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Yeah getting some hints now of some cold and maybe an active period by the middle of DecemberWe're still in an active period....Its just rain, not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 A little OT but here's a loop of that 12/24/97 storm that was mentioned yesterday. I remember the flakes being huge for a while...like mini snow bombs...which radar seems to back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 We're still in an active period....Its just rain, not snow. My bad, Sally. Already know you're down for a DAB for Wednesday morning NAM continues to be bullish with 1-2" somewhere across northern IL and the Euro has around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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