Hoosier Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Well, some indications (not just the CFS lol) that this month may be a bit hostile for winter weather lovers. Sustained winter weather may be hard to come by, though as we saw recently, there could be some wintry periods and downward trending averages means that it won't have to be super cold to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Door is open for some crazy stuff. Colder 850's in northern Mexico than parts of central Canada on the 10 day euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Well, some indications (not just the CFS lol) that this month may be a bit hostile for winter weather lovers. Sustained winter weather may be hard to come by, though as we saw recently, there could be some wintry periods and downward trending averages means that it won't have to be super cold to snow. We lost the entire month of December last year, a very good chance this one might be toast as well. Way too many storms buzz sawing their way into northern British Columbia -- cutting off our cold source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 this is going to rule so hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 December looks like it's going to try to out torch December 2014. There's been a lot of derision over the CFS for it's very warm winter look, but if we get an extremely warm December, we're very likely to end up well above normal for the winter even if January and February are near normal/relatively cold. Never say never in LR forecasting but last winter ended up as cold as it did mainly on the strength of the record February and that's very unlikely to occur this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 December looks like it's going to try to out torch December 2014. There's been a lot of derision over the CFS for it's very warm winter look, but if we get an extremely warm December, we're very likely to end up well above normal for the winter even if January and February are near normal/relatively cold. Never say never in LR forecasting but last winter ended up as cold as it did mainly on the strength of the record February and that's very unlikely to occur this winter. tapatalk_1448492247292.png Hey RC, are you guys at LOT going to do a winter forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Hoosier, you jumped the gun on me starting the December thread. I had a good thing going by starting the November thread, which turned out to be pretty entertaining after a few dull months and was hoping to keep the streak going. The first couple of weeks don't look so good winter-wise, so we can blame you. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Hey RC, are you guys at LOT going to do a winter forecast?Unfortunately, doesn't look like we will this year. Never got a good opportunity to work on an outlook with my coworker on the office climate team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 this is going to rule so hard It's just going to feel like April... Nothing we don't experience 3 or 4 months out of the year already. Minus the storms. I'm loading up my work schedule for December, I'm writing off the first 3 weeks right of the top. On the plus side, I'll probably make more money with the warmer temps, last December was a company record month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 It's just going to feel like April... Nothing we don't experience 3 or 4 months out of the year already. Minus the storms. I'm loading up my work schedule for December, I'm writing off the first 3 weeks right of the top. On the plus side, I'll probably make more money with the warmer temps, last December was a company record month. December has unanimously been pegged as the suckiest month of the coming winter by forecasters. I have a VERY busy month. While snow is always welcome I can say I honestly wouldn't have time to enjoy it as much as in Jan-Feb due to schedule. I just hope we get snow at Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 December has unanimously been pegged as the suckiest month of the coming winter by forecasters. I have a VERY busy month. While snow is always welcome I can say I honestly wouldn't have time to enjoy it as much as in Jan-Feb due to schedule. I just hope we get snow at Christmas. Quite a few also said as much about November too, but we got a couple of what I consider "best case scenarios". The same could happen in December, but it's not looking good for the first part of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Quite a few also said as much about November too, but we got a couple of what I consider "best case scenarios". The same could happen in December, but it's not looking good for the first part of the month. very true. By no means did I mean December would be a snowless torch, just that its definitely not going to be a wintry month. The Nov 21st snowstorm timing could NOT have been more perfect timing or perfect scenery for me personally. I got to basically spend the entire weekend enjoying snow. Sure, whatever snow we get in December I will enjoy, but between the busy times of the Christmas season, moving into a new house, and working M-F I will be busy busy busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 On the plus side, I'll probably make more money with the warmer temps, last December was a company record month. Yep^. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 very true. By no means did I mean December would be a snowless torch, just that its definitely not going to be a wintry month. The Nov 21st snowstorm timing could NOT have been more perfect timing or perfect scenery for me personally. I got to basically spend the entire weekend enjoying snow. Sure, whatever snow we get in December I will enjoy, but between the busy times of the Christmas season, moving into a new house, and working M-F I will be busy busy busy. Congrats! I'm just curious to know, are you still going to be in Wyandotte / Downriver, or are you moving to another part of the metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Yep^. yep ditto although if we have a miserably long drawn out winter that doesn't get underway until February and doesn't end until mid April, then it kind of washes out the early winter gains. At least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Congrats! I'm just curious to know, are you still going to be in Wyandotte / Downriver, or are you moving to another part of the metro area? Wyandotte. Im buying my late grandpas house. Its one of those old houses (all hardwood floors, my favorite) with so much old-school charm, you cant get that in a newer house or condo. I thought about moving closer to Farmington Hills but I REALLY want this house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Does anybody know what causes the sometimes ragged and inconsistent output with the GFS in some grid regions? Below is a 10m wind plot for an upcoming system and non-smooth values are very apparent on the southern fringe. Is this an issue with specifically the GFS? I've seen in occur with various other products including temperatures and upper level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 Hoosier, you jumped the gun on me starting the December thread. I had a good thing going by starting the November thread, which turned out to be pretty entertaining after a few dull months and was hoping to keep the streak going. The first couple of weeks don't look so good winter-wise, so we can blame you. lol test8.gif Yes, but I have serious storm thread cred, especially among the northern IL folks. By the way, I got dibs on Dec 20-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Quite the death look. Glad no one was expecting anything from this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Those snowbirds who move to Miami for the winter might want to rent a condo in Canada instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 After March ended, 2015 will go down as a real snooze for most people on this subforum. My 16 inches has completely melted away. It was cool that it happened, but it lasted such a short amount of time that I'm downgrading its impact and final score in my "all-time book". I'd have rather seen 8 inches stick around for a month as opposed to 16 inches melting in 3 days. Sorry to the "Big Dog" lovers, they stink if they just melt away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Am I missing something here?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Yes, but I have serious storm thread cred, especially among the northern IL folks. By the way, I got dibs on Dec 20-25. Saved for posterity. Getting the rain that the western sub got yesterday. Going to watch temps slloowwwwllly side today after enjoying near-record temps for Thanksgiving. Precursor to early Dec. weather? I'm thankful for the Bears beating the Packers, although in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't mean squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 euro hinting at a look capable of smashing some local records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Another pre December freak out. Seems like every year some of us (including myself) panic prior to the start of met winter. Have to see what actually happens. Things can change fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 If Buffalo can hold off on any measurable snow through next Thursday, it would be the latest on record for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Another pre December freak out. Seems like every year some of us (including myself) panic prior to the start of met winter. Have to see what actually happens. Things can change fast.Even if December is shot...it certainly doesn't mean the whole winter is shot, which is what a lot of the panic tends to get at (in fact a mild Dec has been pegged by most all along). Even a sucky December will likely yield a few snowfalls...and I'd rather them at Christmas than now (of course I'd rather nonstop snow and cold til april, but that's not how it works lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Even if December is shot...it certainly doesn't mean the whole winter is shot, which is what a lot of the panic tends to get at (in fact a mild Dec has been pegged by most all along). Even a sucky December will likely yield a few snowfalls...and I'd rather them at Christmas than now (of course I'd rather nonstop snow and cold til april, but that's not how it works lol). I'd say if we're sitting here on January 20 without a transition to more consistent wintry weather or any signs of such on the horizon, then it's time to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 If Buffalo can hold off on any measurable snow through next Thursday, it would be the latest on record for them. Long range looks like we will definitely break the record. Some of the ski country has picked up 10-20 inches but only a trace under 1k ft elevation in the rest of WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 I'd say if we're sitting here on January 20 without a transition to more consistent wintry weather or any signs of such on the horizon, then it's time to be concerned. December and January are the best winter months IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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