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Mid-Atlantic winter 2015-16 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx

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RIC beat DCA in the following winters:

2012-2013 (8.6 vs 3.1)

2011-2012 (4.5 vs 2.0)

2010-2011 (10.8 vs 10.1)

2001-2002 (8.7 vs 3.2)

1997-1998 (1.2 vs 0.1)

1988-1989 (15.4 vs 5.7)

1982-1983 (29.4 vs 27.6)

1979-1980 (38.6 vs 20.1)

1976-1977 (13.8 vs 11.1)

1972-1973 (6.7 vs 0.1)

1970-1971 (15.2 vs 11.7)

1968-1969 (15.9 vs 9.1)

1965-1966 (39.2 vs 38.4)

1964-1965 (20.4 vs 17.1)

1961-1962 (38.9 vs 15.0)

1959-1960 (32.3 vs 24.3)

1958-1959 (14.9 vs 4.9)

1954-1955 (12.9 vs 6.6)

1951-1952 (13.4 vs 10.2)

1949-1950 (8.8 vs 3.4)

1947-1948 (25.2 vs 21.2)

1946-1947 (23.1 vs 20.0)

1939-1940 (34.2 vs 25.3)

1914-1915 (17.5 vs 14.5)

1903-1904 (20.4 vs 20.2)

1901-1902 (15.8 vs 13.1)

1900-1901 (15.1 vs 9.1)

 

 

Honorable mention - 1999-2000 (both 15.4)

 

Great information, Thanks.  That more than I would have expected.  The majority are El Nino events, it appears.

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All right, we're ready to go. 57 contestants total!

 

Below are the top five Weenies and Debbie Downers, as measured by total combined snow predicted*:

 

Weenies:

attml (215.3")

Me (146.0")

mappy (137.0")

RIC Airport (125.1")

dailylurker (121.0")

 

Debbie Downers:

RodneyS (10.4")

MN Transplant (13.8")

Ian (20.7")

Onceinalifetime2009-10 (26.3")

WestminsterDeathband (28.2")

 

Quite a range of calls we have- there's huge bust potential on either side. There are also quite a few instances where the tiebreaker will be very important. This should be a great contest to follow! I will be giving periodic updates of the top five leaders once we start getting into accumulating snow events.

 

(*Note that I'm not using these combined totals for anything- I'm taking the four individual departures people have at each airport and summing up the absolute values. This was just for fun.)

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jesus, no idea i went that high. oh well. BACKLOADED WINTER FTW

 

For me, I'm banking on the usual El Nino February HECS pattern where we get like a 6-8" event and then the 20-30" HECS a few days to a week later. If it doesn't happen then this will all blow up in my face. I'm only predicting 3-4 accumulating events, mostly in February. I expect December to mostly suck. 

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Just from a probability standpoint, I think those with low guesses are more likely to bust than those who are "high".  The reason being that all it takes is one big storm and the low guesses are toast.  And in a nino year, the likelihood of a big storm is higher.  Doesn't mean it will happen, but I think it actually takes more luck for a season without a big storm to occur than vice versa.

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DCA:  0.1"

IAD:   2.3"

BWI:  4.8" (Mapgirl jackpot)

RIC:   0.1"

OKV:  0" (the one coastal to give some slushy snow to the mid-Atlantic will - of course - miss us to the east.)

 

Tiebreaker:  Unnecessary, these guesses would win the contest outright.

 

Too late to officially enter, but at least I can claim bragging rights when these come to pass.

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DCA:  0.1"

IAD:   2.3"

BWI:  4.8" (Mapgirl jackpot)

RIC:   0.1"

OKV:  0" (the one coastal to give some slushy snow to the mid-Atlantic will - of course - miss us to the east.)

 

Tiebreaker:  Unnecessary, these guesses would win the contest outright.

 

Too late to officially enter, but at least I can claim bragging rights when these come to pass.

 

I'll keep track of you in the spreadsheet but you can't be an official entry. If we suck that bad you'll be the unofficial winner (official prize will go to Rodney). 

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Just from a probability standpoint, I think those with low guesses are more likely to bust than those who are "high".  The reason being that all it takes is one big storm and the low guesses are toast.  And in a nino year, the likelihood of a big storm is higher.  Doesn't mean it will happen, but I think it actually takes more luck for a season without a big storm to occur than vice versa.

 

But that big storm is unlikely to happen... the chance of that is maybe 30% at best. That's why I went pretty low... I think we'll pull off a 3-6" storm and a few smaller events, but for the most part I expect a boring, rainy winter, which is fine with me... we can't win every year.

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But that big storm is unlikely to happen... the chance of that is maybe 30% at best. That's why I went pretty low... I think we'll pull off a 3-6" storm and a few smaller events, but for the most part I expect a boring, rainy winter, which is fine with me... we can't win every year.

It's much more likely to happen in a Nino.

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I'll keep track of you in the spreadsheet but you can't be an official entry. If we suck that bad you'll be the unofficial winner (official prize will go to Rodney). 

 

Thanks.  I hope that I'm ridiculed for ages.  I have a snow-blower I'd like to play with.

 

I suppose I could try to see if it could be used to throw leaves from my yard over to my neighbors'.

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I realize that.... in most winters the chance of a big one is much less than 30%. Hope I'm wrong.

It all depends upon the definition of "big".

 

For some of these predictions, one 6-8" snow is going to seriously damage their chances.  The odds of a 6-8" snow have to be greater than 3 in 10.

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It all depends upon the definition of "big".

 

For some of these predictions, one 6-8" snow is going to seriously damage their chances.  The odds of a 6-8" snow have to be greater than 3 in 10.

Maybe where you live. I'd say "big" is prob about 8".. which is roughly an 8% chance in D.C. 

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So only 8 years in 100 does it snow 8" in DC?

No, not necessarily. I guess I should do a winter avg. 1 in 14 snow events in recent climo (past 30 yrs ending last year) has been 8" or greater. 

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It all depends upon the definition of "big".

 

For some of these predictions, one 6-8" snow is going to seriously damage their chances.  The odds of a 6-8" snow have to be greater than 3 in 10.

 

Oh, when I said "big", I meant KU (10-12"+)

 

I'll be surprised if we don't get at least one 4-8" storm.

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No, not necessarily. I guess I should do a winter avg. 1 in 14 snow events in recent climo (past 30 yrs ending last year) has been 8" or greater.

Just total the number of 8" snows in the past 50 years and you'll be able to calculate your avg. That would give you the likelihood.

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Just total the number of 8" snows in the past 50 years and you'll be able to calculate your avg. That would give you the likelihood.

Looks like 28 since the typically cited switch to DCA in 1945. That's 40% of winters based on a raw average of 70 winters. But... they all came in 19 winters as they tend to cluster more than a lot of wx records. So.. I dunno if that's a useful metric overall. Still think the 1 in 14 is a better way to look at it though most winters don't have 14 events and there are of course plenty of gaps longer and shorter.  Tho perhaps just 19/70 is workable for a general idea.

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Looks like 28 since the typically cited switch to DCA in 1945. That's 40% of winters based on a raw average of 70 winters. But... they all came in 19 winters as they tend to cluster more than a lot of wx records. So.. I dunno if that's a useful metric overall. Still think the 1 in 14 is a better way to look at it though most winters don't have 14 events and there are of course plenty of gaps longer and shorter. Tho perhaps just 19/70 is workable for a general idea.

Are they clustered in Nino winters?

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Are they clustered in Nino winters?

1945-1946    1
1946-1947    1
1957-1958    2
1960-1961    2
1963-1964    2
1965-1966    1
1966-1967    1
1970-1971    1
1973-1974    1
1978-1979    1
1982-1983    1
1986-1987    3
1987-1988    2
1995-1996    2
1998-1999    1
1999-2000    1
2002-2003    1
2005-2006    1
2009-2010    3
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