87storms Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 13.4 IAD: 21.2 BWI: 16.9 RIC: 8.2 Tiebreaker: 3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 RIC beat DCA in the following winters: 2012-2013 (8.6 vs 3.1) 2011-2012 (4.5 vs 2.0) 2010-2011 (10.8 vs 10.1) 2001-2002 (8.7 vs 3.2) 1997-1998 (1.2 vs 0.1) 1988-1989 (15.4 vs 5.7) 1982-1983 (29.4 vs 27.6) 1979-1980 (38.6 vs 20.1) 1976-1977 (13.8 vs 11.1) 1972-1973 (6.7 vs 0.1) 1970-1971 (15.2 vs 11.7) 1968-1969 (15.9 vs 9.1) 1965-1966 (39.2 vs 38.4) 1964-1965 (20.4 vs 17.1) 1961-1962 (38.9 vs 15.0) 1959-1960 (32.3 vs 24.3) 1958-1959 (14.9 vs 4.9) 1954-1955 (12.9 vs 6.6) 1951-1952 (13.4 vs 10.2) 1949-1950 (8.8 vs 3.4) 1947-1948 (25.2 vs 21.2) 1946-1947 (23.1 vs 20.0) 1939-1940 (34.2 vs 25.3) 1914-1915 (17.5 vs 14.5) 1903-1904 (20.4 vs 20.2) 1901-1902 (15.8 vs 13.1) 1900-1901 (15.1 vs 9.1) Honorable mention - 1999-2000 (both 15.4) Great information, Thanks. That more than I would have expected. The majority are El Nino events, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 DCA: 18.8"IAD: 26.9"BWI: 38.9"RIC: 19.1"Tiebreaker: 3.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 so about 25% of the time...makes sense.. That is actually much higher than I expected. But it does make sense in Nino I suppose. Thanks for the info famartin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 All right, we're ready to go. 57 contestants total! Below are the top five Weenies and Debbie Downers, as measured by total combined snow predicted*: Weenies: attml (215.3") Me (146.0") mappy (137.0") RIC Airport (125.1") dailylurker (121.0") Debbie Downers: RodneyS (10.4") MN Transplant (13.8") Ian (20.7") Onceinalifetime2009-10 (26.3") WestminsterDeathband (28.2") Quite a range of calls we have- there's huge bust potential on either side. There are also quite a few instances where the tiebreaker will be very important. This should be a great contest to follow! I will be giving periodic updates of the top five leaders once we start getting into accumulating snow events. (*Note that I'm not using these combined totals for anything- I'm taking the four individual departures people have at each airport and summing up the absolute values. This was just for fun.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 jesus, no idea i went that high. oh well. BACKLOADED WINTER FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 jesus, no idea i went that high. oh well. BACKLOADED WINTER FTW For me, I'm banking on the usual El Nino February HECS pattern where we get like a 6-8" event and then the 20-30" HECS a few days to a week later. If it doesn't happen then this will all blow up in my face. I'm only predicting 3-4 accumulating events, mostly in February. I expect December to mostly suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It's amazing that my combined 36" prediction wasn't low enough to make the top 5 low guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 PFWx, I'll pm you a spreadsheet template that does all the math for you. I'll check the column equations today and make sure everything is right before I send it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 PFWx, I'll pm you a spreadsheet template that does all the math for you. I'll check the column equations today and make sure everything is right before I send it. I already have one set up, but I can take a look at what you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just from a probability standpoint, I think those with low guesses are more likely to bust than those who are "high". The reason being that all it takes is one big storm and the low guesses are toast. And in a nino year, the likelihood of a big storm is higher. Doesn't mean it will happen, but I think it actually takes more luck for a season without a big storm to occur than vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I partly went low to have minimal company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA: 0.1" IAD: 2.3" BWI: 4.8" (Mapgirl jackpot) RIC: 0.1" OKV: 0" (the one coastal to give some slushy snow to the mid-Atlantic will - of course - miss us to the east.) Tiebreaker: Unnecessary, these guesses would win the contest outright. Too late to officially enter, but at least I can claim bragging rights when these come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA: 0.1" IAD: 2.3" BWI: 4.8" (Mapgirl jackpot) RIC: 0.1" OKV: 0" (the one coastal to give some slushy snow to the mid-Atlantic will - of course - miss us to the east.) Tiebreaker: Unnecessary, these guesses would win the contest outright. Too late to officially enter, but at least I can claim bragging rights when these come to pass. I'll keep track of you in the spreadsheet but you can't be an official entry. If we suck that bad you'll be the unofficial winner (official prize will go to Rodney). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just from a probability standpoint, I think those with low guesses are more likely to bust than those who are "high". The reason being that all it takes is one big storm and the low guesses are toast. And in a nino year, the likelihood of a big storm is higher. Doesn't mean it will happen, but I think it actually takes more luck for a season without a big storm to occur than vice versa. But that big storm is unlikely to happen... the chance of that is maybe 30% at best. That's why I went pretty low... I think we'll pull off a 3-6" storm and a few smaller events, but for the most part I expect a boring, rainy winter, which is fine with me... we can't win every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 But that big storm is unlikely to happen... the chance of that is maybe 30% at best. That's why I went pretty low... I think we'll pull off a 3-6" storm and a few smaller events, but for the most part I expect a boring, rainy winter, which is fine with me... we can't win every year. It's much more likely to happen in a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I'll keep track of you in the spreadsheet but you can't be an official entry. If we suck that bad you'll be the unofficial winner (official prize will go to Rodney). Thanks. I hope that I'm ridiculed for ages. I have a snow-blower I'd like to play with. I suppose I could try to see if it could be used to throw leaves from my yard over to my neighbors'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It's much more likely to happen in a Nino. I realize that.... in most winters the chance of a big one is much less than 30%. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I realize that.... in most winters the chance of a big one is much less than 30%. Hope I'm wrong. It all depends upon the definition of "big". For some of these predictions, one 6-8" snow is going to seriously damage their chances. The odds of a 6-8" snow have to be greater than 3 in 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It all depends upon the definition of "big". For some of these predictions, one 6-8" snow is going to seriously damage their chances. The odds of a 6-8" snow have to be greater than 3 in 10. Maybe where you live. I'd say "big" is prob about 8".. which is roughly an 8% chance in D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Maybe where you live. I'd say "big" is prob about 8".. which is roughly an 8% chance in D.C. So only 8 years in 100 does it snow 8" in DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 So only 8 years in 100 does it snow 8" in DC? No, not necessarily. I guess I should do a winter avg. 1 in 14 snow events in recent climo (past 30 yrs ending last year) has been 8" or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It all depends upon the definition of "big". For some of these predictions, one 6-8" snow is going to seriously damage their chances. The odds of a 6-8" snow have to be greater than 3 in 10. Oh, when I said "big", I meant KU (10-12"+) I'll be surprised if we don't get at least one 4-8" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 No, not necessarily. I guess I should do a winter avg. 1 in 14 snow events in recent climo (past 30 yrs ending last year) has been 8" or greater. Just total the number of 8" snows in the past 50 years and you'll be able to calculate your avg. That would give you the likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#BUSYBULLET Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 DCA: 18.5" IAD: 26.8" BWI: 24.2" RIC: 12.5" Tiebreaker: 3.0" February 14-15 MillerA 12"+ w/mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Just total the number of 8" snows in the past 50 years and you'll be able to calculate your avg. That would give you the likelihood. Looks like 28 since the typically cited switch to DCA in 1945. That's 40% of winters based on a raw average of 70 winters. But... they all came in 19 winters as they tend to cluster more than a lot of wx records. So.. I dunno if that's a useful metric overall. Still think the 1 in 14 is a better way to look at it though most winters don't have 14 events and there are of course plenty of gaps longer and shorter. Tho perhaps just 19/70 is workable for a general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Looks like 28 since the typically cited switch to DCA in 1945. That's 40% of winters based on a raw average of 70 winters. But... they all came in 19 winters as they tend to cluster more than a lot of wx records. So.. I dunno if that's a useful metric overall. Still think the 1 in 14 is a better way to look at it though most winters don't have 14 events and there are of course plenty of gaps longer and shorter. Tho perhaps just 19/70 is workable for a general idea. Are they clustered in Nino winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Are they clustered in Nino winters? 1945-1946 1 1946-1947 1 1957-1958 2 1960-1961 2 1963-1964 2 1965-1966 1 1966-1967 1 1970-1971 1 1973-1974 1 1978-1979 1 1982-1983 1 1986-1987 3 1987-1988 2 1995-1996 2 1998-1999 1 1999-2000 1 2002-2003 1 2005-2006 1 2009-2010 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 I think we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 DCA: 1.7" IAD: 6.1: BWI: 4.5" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker: 2.30" . Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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