homedis Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 not that it wasn't expected but hi-res guidance jumped south shows a relatively nice lake enhanced defo for NE IL I'm about 5.8 miles away from the lake. Wonder how much I will be affected... but in a situation like that it would probably end up well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z GGEM... Thats amazing for me! LE right over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 2-4" in mine tonight and 3-5" tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 3-6 on the P&C, one mile from the lake. 6-12 in my p&c. 8.8" in the hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS absolutely clobbers a large section of the subforum. 8-14 inches Chicago and NW of Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Anyone else getting server errors when trying to loop my favorite 24hr RAP/RUC on ESRL site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z GGEM... Widespread 6"+ throughout the subforum. Really hoping ORD can beat that 6.3" record for earliest measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Widespread 6"+ throughout the subforum. Really hoping ORD can beat that 6.3" record for earliest measurable snowfall. I'm putting the likelihood at 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS has all the snow melted by hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1023 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 UPDATE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH INITIAL LOOK AT 12Z GUID. UPPER TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE MID MISS VLY WITH NEWD CURVE TO UPPER SPEED MAX. LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS SPEED MAX FAVORS A MORE NWD SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WATERS TENDS TO DRAW THESE LOWS CLOSER AS WELL. WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED RISK FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS DELTA T INCREASES TO 16C WITH A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY IN PLACE IN THAT WINDOW OF TIME. STILL SOME CONCERN THOUGH WITH MESO MODELS TRENDING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF WI INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WE ALSO THINK SOME DRY AIR AT THE OUTSET WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME INITIAL ACCUMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER THE 12Z DATA...COORD WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES BEFORE CHANGING ANY AMOUNTS. THE NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT STILL LOOKS GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Anyone else getting server errors when trying to loop my favorite 24hr RAP/RUC on ESRL site? YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z RGEM... Significant south extent of the snow. All the way down to Decatur/champaign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The NAM still feels too north, and no other model is that sharp on the cutoff (lake effects should not reach this far inland) The NAM is higher resolution than the GFS/Euro/GGEM. Not as high resolution as short term hi-res models. So, it's probably correct. I'm not worried about the NAM here, its definitely having issues with the lake. What issues with the lake? RGEM looks like the NAM with less lake issues What issues with the lake? 12Z GFS is nice for South MI then the 0Z, looks like more NAM like with no lake issues sans the immediate lake shore. Again, what issues with the lake? This isn't sound meteorological reasoning, and these posts don't lend any credence to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Significant south extent of the snow. All the way down to Decatur/champaign Yup I'm starting to come into play for a little something. Fabert not buying it, pulling out the temp soil card, he tends to play very conservative. Espicially in these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 15z RAP seemed to tick north vs 12z run or at least a little warmer (valid 06z) can anyone confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Looking at the GFS soundings, KMDW is AOB freezing at 975mb for the entire event. The only layer above freezing is 1000mb. Furthermore, we're at < -10 at 700mb, at < -15 or so at 600mb. I think ratios will actually be pretty good, in that we could see 10:1 even right up to the lake. The bigger problem becomes melting, but the fact that this is a night time event is very helpful. I think this event may surprise myself and Alek, in that these 6" amounts could certainly verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 What is the Over/under for MBY. 40 Miles NNW of Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 15z RAP seemed to tick north vs 12z run or at least a little warmer (valid 06z) can anyone confirm Still looks like it takes close to the same track across northern MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z UKMET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. 8" on the ground already in Sioux Falls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. 8" on the ground already in Sioux Falls... Holy ****. Rip city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Looking at the GFS soundings, KMDW is AOB freezing at 975mb for the entire event. The only layer above freezing is 1000mb. Furthermore, we're at < -10 at 700mb, at < -15 or so at 600mb. I think ratios will actually be pretty good, in that we could see 10:1 even right up to the lake. The bigger problem becomes melting, but the fact that this is a night time event is very helpful. I think this event may surprise myself and Alek, in that these 6" amounts could certainly verify. great post, mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. 8" on the ground already in Sioux Falls... i posted some meso screen grabs of that fgen band earlier, it's kind for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. 8" on the ground already in Sioux Falls... At least another 4-5" to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I went with 3-6" for the metro area on fb except for south of a line from Adrian to the city. I just don't feel confident enough to say we get more than that, although I wouldn't be shocked if we did, if we do realize thunder snow tomorrow evening as the low moves by. I do suppose parts of Livingston and Oakland counties could do well with their higher elevations, Jongerland over to dmcland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Wow. 8" on the ground already in Sioux Falls... Must be some convective snows there. A ten inch estimate report very near the 8" report, and surrounding reports only at 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That I-88 corridor getting love from all the ladies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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