Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 forecast sounding out over southern Lake Michigan tomorrow afternoon It would be better to show this in BUFKIT, but there's a few hundred J/kg CAPE even on this unmodified sounding. Imagine what it would look like with a lake temp of 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Any live streams that may come in handy later for this one folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Interesting thing is it actually changes back to rain on the coast a few hours later as the east flow off the lake comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Looks like the snow built back into the Sioux Falls area. Snow making it's way into the LOT cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Interesting thing is it actually changes back to rain on the coast a few hours later as the east flow off the lake comes in. HRR.png i mentioned that being possible this morning and that 18z run is a bit colder than 17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Snow making it's way into the LOT cwa.All virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 FWIW 18z NAM is going to support a more SE push of better QPF that Hoosier showed on the RAP above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 i mentioned that being possible this morning and that 18z run is a bit colder than 17z I think we continue to see them trend colder to match up with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 More QPF is always good. Clouds building here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 forecast sounding out over southern Lake Michigan tomorrow afternoon It would be better to show this in BUFKIT, but there's a few hundred J/kg CAPE even on this unmodified sounding. Imagine what it would look like with a lake temp of 50. was just looking at that...non zero instability popping up especially on the 4k NAM over the lake and downwind of the lake tomorrow morning into afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS absolutely clobbers a large section of the subforum. 8-14 inches Chicago and NW of Detroit. Would be funny if our best storm ends up happening outside DJF. 1974-75 deja vu? I'm liking '77-78 on moisture 'roids myself.. Souix Falls reporting 10"+ already. I like where we sit too wrt double digit totals. One time of the year I'm glad to be nowhere near the lake Bullseye. I see you bullseye bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 MCD 1987... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...FAR NERN NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 201951Z - 210045Z SUMMARY...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF IA INTO THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING FROM NERN NEB ACROSS SIOUXLAND INTO N-CNTRL IA. LEADING PORTION OF THE HEAVY SNOW APPEARED TO COINCIDE WELL WITH 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTING INTENSE RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR EARLIER TODAY NEAR SIOUX FALLS. WHILE REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS THE 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS SHIFTED NE...MID-LEVEL DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CNTRL NEB IS YIELDING A MERGER OF HEAVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS SIOUXLAND. ASCENT TIED TO THE DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD FOSTER A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING...LIKELY PIVOTING ESE. WITH AMDAR DATA INVOF KOMA DEPICTING SATURATION DOWN TO ABOUT 850 MB /COMPARED TO 700 MB IN THE 12Z RAOB/...THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN IA SHOULD BE ROUGHLY THE SRN EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH 02Z. ..GRAMS.. 11/20/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Dang some of these short term guidance models are putting rain in my backyard. I think that may be overdone as most models confine the rain to the immediate lakeshore/within 2 miles of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 15z SREF for ORD. A bit more clustered and a bit more realistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Any live streams that may come in handy later for this one folks? I'm streaming my front yard: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/libertyville-snow Everything looks pretty on-target compared to models. Impressive totals showing up in some of those persistent bands. Interestingly, looking at radar things look a little more scattered in the southern half of Iowa than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z RAP is more generous with precip farther southeast in LOT cwa output_xaUYW3.gif Just checking in with you all. Anyways, I hope this is the case as it seems a fair amount of guidance wants to sorta sucker-hole IKK and surrounding areas. I guess we'll see. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Spotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just checking in with you all. Anyways, I hope this is the case as it seems a fair amount of guidance wants to sorta sucker-hole IKK and surrounding areas. I guess we'll see. Good luck to all. Hey. Yeah, we're in a similar situation, being on the edge of the better precip. fwiw, 15z SREF plumes are very similar for our two areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just checking in with you all. Anyways, I hope this is the case as it seems a fair amount of guidance wants to sorta sucker-hole IKK and surrounding areas. I guess we'll see. Good luck to all. Wait until LAF/OKK ends up with more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Winter Storm Warning extended down to Will County now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 gonna be a shame if this is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 P&C lowered to 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 gonna be a shame if this is rain NAM 12km is all snow, waiting for the 4km precip maps to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just about every run has me right on the razor's edge of cutoff. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Current temp is 40 Dewpoint is 16 Humidity 38% It's going to take time to saturate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 gonna be a shame if this is rain No way it's rain if this is close to being right. This is from Meigs Field (or what was Meigs Field) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Jackpot right over head. 9.4 inches. Let's see if this is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wickedtwister28 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 In regards to the NAM or even GFS. Live in western Michigan and wanna know what's up with the sudden split in snowfall over western lower Michigan? I thought the storm was deepening therefore strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 No way it's rain if this is close to being right. This is from Meigs Field (or what was Meigs Field) cgx.png Where do you pull these soundings from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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