Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Awful quite around here with a potentially significant winter storm coming through. I honestly don't believe the Euro, I'll take the middle road. Woodlawn I'm afraid we're in for it!!! Hunker down my freind! I'm growing more and more concerned that the cold air will be trapped here and up the Lee of the apps for longer than many models show. Going to put up the mustang tomorrow after church and get the Subaru ready to go out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just looked at a bunch of obs from Mnt locations & all of the sudden my 62 degrees feels nice! Haven't weighed in much on the upcoming event as it's a mess. Tend to think the euro is off base on this one. Gonna be a ugly situation for some. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nice wrap to a superb winter day A lot of God's handiwork on display on a classic winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here is my call map on this one, but honestly.. who really knows? This one could be very bad, or it could be a huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here is my call map on this one, but honestly.. who really knows? This one could be very bad, or it could be a huge bust. looks like a good call. Too bad this storm is nothing like what was being shown a few days ago. Was looking forwad to a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nice wrap to a superb winter day A lot of God's handiwork on display on a classic winter day Nice picture Bill.I had a niece that was married in that church. Well, I got the dreaded 33 and wintry mix forecast for Monday. Then I looked up at the weather station it says IT'S 5 DEGREES !!! This storm must be coming from a desert. If this thing would've been a good hit, I might say thanks and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here is my call map on this one, but honestly.. who really knows? This one could be very bad, or it could be a huge bust. Nice Ward. I'll take it. Like Franky said, not a big dog, but a good size beagle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nice Ward. I'll take it. Like Franky said, not a big dog, but a good size beagle. I'll take 3-5, kinda what I was thinking, sure wish that H pressure could have stalled out another 24 hrs. shame we didn't have something to lock it in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah good call map Ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thanks guys. I am really hoping for more snow and maybe a very early onset. Oh well, at least we will have a few hours to watch flakes fly. Maybe someone here get a surprise and cashes in. I really hope so because that makes these events really fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Forecasting this storm system for my internship is driving me insane right now. I just want to pull my hair out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Skiing on Beech This Evening. Snow drifts off Beech Mountain Parkway near Oz and Eldeberry Roads Drifting is common in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 can't believe madison and buncombe and haywood counties are not under a winter storm warning also, I actually thought some of the upstate would go to a warning with no questions for all of wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It should be upgraded to a warning today if current trend holds. Hmm...I also has no idea that I was upgraded to a warning. Who knows. * my warning states 6-9 inches of snow and only about a tenth of an inch of sleet/fzr. I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It should be upgraded to a warning today if current trend holds. Hmm...I also has no idea that I was upgraded to a warning. Who knows. * my warning states 6-9 inches of snow and only about a tenth of an inch of sleet/fzr. I'll take that Good luck. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Under a warning here also with 4 - 6 and a quarter inch of ice. Would love for this to stay all snow but doesn't look like that's going happen. Like you Ash, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hey all, I'm not feeling this one, especially for Buncombe county and all areas south and west. It looks to me like northern mountains will do quite a bit better, say something close to what Ward put out in his map. But for the other areas, most models keep the initial slug of snow just too far north for anything meaningful. For Asheville, I think a dusting of snow, a trace of ice, and lots of rain. This should be the case too for areas like Franklin, WCU, Brevard, Hendersonville, Lake Lure, etc. The system appears to track west of the Apps, and wedges always erode from the edge first...meaning the southern and southwestern counties go to rain before places like Mt. Airy or Winston. The waa is just too stout and the fast retreating nature of the parent high does not favor a long-lived winter event. Look at current obs in Missouri and how far north freezing rain is being reported. I'm happy to revise this pending 12Z data. At this point, I expect nothing more than a Winter Weather Advisory for Buncombe, Haywood, and everyone else south of I-40. Good luck with your map, Ward! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hey all, I'm not feeling this one, especially for Buncombe county and all areas south and west. It looks to me like northern mountains will do quite a bit better, say something close to what Ward put out in his map. But for the other areas, most models keep the initial slug of snow just too far north for anything meaningful. For Asheville, I think a dusting of snow, a trace of ice, and lots of rain. This should be the case too for areas like Franklin, WCU, Brevard, Hendersonville, Lake Lure, etc. The system appears to track west of the Apps, and wedges always erode from the edge first...meaning the southern and southwestern counties go to rain before places like Mt. Airy or Winston. The waa is just too stout and the fast retreating nature of the parent high does not favor a long-lived winter event. Look at current obs in Missouri and how far north freezing rain is being reported. I'm happy to revise this pending 12Z data. At this point, I expect nothing more than a Winter Weather Advisory for Buncombe, Haywood, and everyone else south of I-40. Good luck with your map, Ward! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Good analysis. The trends are not in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Good luck to the northern fellas. Hopefully mist of the precip stays snow and very little ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thanks HT and I agree, my confidence in that map is low. 925mb temps look to hold strong over Henderson Co. Until 6-7am tomorrow but then that warm nose finally turns everything to rain. My map was predicated on thoughts that precip could begin earlier then expect, but who knows. This one has high bust potential written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Arrrgggg ! Monday Night Rain. Low around 33. South southeast wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Already returns overheard on radar for some of the Mtn areas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Already returns overheard on radar for some of the Mtn areas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I was just getting ready to post that I have a very fine flurry now. Almost a diamond dust look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I was just getting ready to post that I have a very fine flurry now. Almost a diamond dust look. Nice Joe! This is what I was hoping for. If we can get DP's up, I think these will make it into the valley. The key for everyone here to get snow is to have moisture reach the ground before 3-4am tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nice Joe! This is what I was hoping for. If we can get DP's up, I think these will make it into the valley. The key for everyone here to get snow is to have moisture reach the ground before 3-4am tomorrow morning. Ward, I have bonafide light snow now with a temp of 17.2. Didn't expect snow this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Can't believe that we have some of the coldest temps of the season and we're 24 hours away from a rain storm. Just a weird system but I guess it fits in with a weird winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ward, I have bonafide light snow now with a temp of 17.2. Didn't expect snow this early. Wolf getting some flurry action too. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/wolf-ridge-base/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rays Mountain Weather Morning thoughts Image courtesy of Raysweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Snowing!!! Flurries but slowly increasing strength. Now a light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's snowing pretty good. Didn't really expect this already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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