nchighcountrywx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Clipper snow for tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Worst ice storm in ten years. Almost half an inch of ice, temp stayed at 31 till 8:30 this morning. I lost power at 3a.m, woke up to a big KABOOM!!! transformer blew right beside my window, green sparks flew everywhere. 226,221 and I-40 were all shut down last night due to stranded motorists and wreck. I-40 looked like a parking lot, several shelters had to open. I woke up at midnight before the transformer blew to thunder and lightning. Crazy storm to say the least. Nice it took until about 5am to lose power here. Crazy how fast they worked to turn it back on for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks good on radar. Hopefully it'll hang together and gives us a surprise. No snow this morning but temps have been dropping since about 3 am. Down to 26.9 now. Can't believe how long that CAD is hanging on in the foothills and northern piedmont. Just proves once again that the models, always, scours it out too soon. I hope the valleys get an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Worst ice storm in ten years. Almost half an inch of ice, temp stayed at 31 till 8:30 this morning. I lost power at 3a.m, woke up to a big KABOOM!!! transformer blew right beside my window, green sparks flew everywhere. 226,221 and I-40 were all shut down last night due to stranded motorists and wreck. I-40 looked like a parking lot, several shelters had to open. I woke up at midnight before the transformer blew to thunder and lightning. Crazy storm to say the least.Lol enjoy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah this coming through actually looks very robust. I could see some surprise amounts coming out of the mountains with this. Either way more snow on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah this coming through actually looks very robust. I could see some surprise amounts coming out of the mountains with this. Either way more snow on the way. Won't really be a surprise Winter Storm Warnings are out in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Won't really be a surprise Winter Storm Warnings are out in Tennessee.I could care less about TN. I saw that they had one on the boarder, just a thin strip but I'm talking about here in NC. They have 1 to 3 for me but as robust as this little system looks I could see more coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah this coming through actually looks very robust. I could see some surprise amounts coming out of the mountains with this. Either way more snow on the way.looks really good for you guys, probably 6" possibly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah guys I like the SW component to this one. Here is my map.. I hope everyone sees some flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Not bad Ward. Looks pretty good. The ground is still very cold. We also still have some ponds stoll frozen over. Yeah Frankiln things should be pretty decent around here. Should be some good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah guys I like the SW component to this one. Here is my map.. I hope everyone sees some flakes! As always, thank you for your forecast map. Of course...I do have some comments about it! Your depiction of snowfall in the Balsams is very likely to be underdone or otherwise not depicted well in a relative sense. It will be an all snow event with some of the highest QPF totals located there due to the orographics so puzzled by your forecast depiction of the Balsams. Don't know of any particular reason in this setup why the Southern Balsams would get 3 to 6" while central balsams and Northern Balsams get 1 to 3"?(It is a given that the small area around Balsam gap will get less but that covers a very small area.) SW wind flow favors the Plott Balsams...in addition the overall track of the storm would also tend to maximize totals in the Balsams. 35 to 40 knots SW winds that will coincide with the precip will generate enhancement there. The same type of wind flow tends to cause snow shadowing in parts of Hayward County...you can see this shown on the some of the Hi-res radar simulations...some of the same areas that you show for some enhanced snow. This is a VERY important local mechanism for precip generation and is the main reason why the Balsams average about 50% more precip than the Valley areas. Your map doesn't depict this mechanism at all save perhaps for the Southern Balsams which actually are much more prone to SE or S wind enhancement than SW wind enhancement. IMO, the NWS map does a much better job depicting the Balsams but again is probably underplaying the accumulation for the higher elevations. Overall, using the coarse grid that you use makes it very difficult to do a good job at showing the crazy quilt patterns generated by the terrain in NC. I know it won't be easy..but consider using the same type of map the NWS uses but with your own forecast depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Sure temps won't be a problem ? Getting awful warm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Sure temps won't be a problem ? Getting awful warm today. The Hi-Res snow maps really show an elevation dependence so the warm temps will be a problem but have to imagine that your elevation will be above the snowline. With it being mostly at night, this might help the cause for the valley areas however. (Currently, it is the upper 20's along the ridge tops so will be no problem there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 As always, thank you for your forecast map. Of course...I do have some comments about it! Your depiction of snowfall in the Balsams is very likely to be underdone. It will be an all snow event with some of the highest QPF totals located there due to the orographics so puzzled by your forecast depiction of the Balsams. Don't know of any particular reason in this setup why the Southern Balsams would get 3 to 6" while central balsams and Northern Balsams get 1 to 3"?(It is a given that the small area around Balsam gap will get less but that covers a very small area.) SW wind flow favors the Plott Balsams...in addition the overall track of the storm would also tend to maximize totals in the Balsams. 35 to 40 knots SW winds that will coincide with the precip will generate enhancement there. The same type of wind flow tends to cause snow shadowing in parts of Hayward County...you can see this shown on the some of the Hi-res radar simulations...some of the same areas that you show for some enhanced snow. This is a VERY important local mechanism for precip generation and is the main reason why the Balsams average about 50% more precip than the Valley areas. Your map doesn't depict this mechanisms at all save perhaps for the Southern Balsams which actually are much more prone to SE or S wind enhancement than SW wind enhancement. IMO, the NWS map does a much better job depicting the Balsams but again is probably underplaying the accumulation for the higher elevations. Overall, using the coarse grid that you use makes it very difficult to do a good job at showing the crazy quilt patterns generated by the terrain in NC. I know it won't be easy..but consider using the same type of map the NWS uses but with your own forecast depiction. Yeah man I use this program called snagit and I am sure the NWS has something much more expensive/better. My depictions are all hand drawn and I am still nailing down my knowledge so cut me a little slack. I don't generate any profit from my site so it is hard to justify spending any more money then I already have. Thanks for the insight though man, I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah man I use this program called snagit and I am sure the NWS has something much more expensive/better. My depictions are all hand drawn and I am still nailing down my knowledge so cut me a little slack. I don't generate any profit from my site so it is hard to justify spending any more money then I already have. Thanks for the insight though man, I appreciate it! Your welcome..and yes I know that NWS guys have a funding advantage over you! However, don't let that get you down...the best meteorological minds are not working for the government to be sure..and you can be much more flexible, take risks, react to changes faster and use your local knowledge to beat their forecast. Do that a few times, and your following will increase. Soon the ad revenues will pour in and you can delegate the task to some grad student while you are on a beach in the S. Pacific enjoying life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Lol good stuff Ward and Mike. Always a pleasure reading the comments. Also Joe I think as precipitation starts we drop quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Also euro showing a good system with cold air in place for us. Winter is far from over fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Good map. But big difference between dusting and 2". My forecast would be a flurries to a dusting from central Alleghany to eastern Buncombe County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snow already falling in the Smoky Mtns. You can see the big curtains of snow falling then evaporating into the dry air in the Valleys as this camera points towards Clingman's Dome towards the NE. http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmcam/grsmcam.cfm And now further East..just reached the top of Mt Lyn Lowry about 3:10 PM. http://www.saunookweather.com/wxwebcam.php Looks like the snow level is probably 5800 to 6000 feet up at the moment. Radar suggests heavy snow to commence by 3:45 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snow level is significantly lower further north below 3,500 ft in Watauga County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snow already falling in the Smoky Mtns. You can see the big curtains of snow falling then evaporating into the dry air in the Valleys as this camera points towards Clingman's Dome towards the NE. http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmcam/grsmcam.cfm And now further East..just reached the top of Mt Lyn Lowry about 3:10 PM. http://www.saunookweather.com/wxwebcam.php Looks like the snow level is probably 5800 to 6000 feet up at the moment. Radar suggests heavy snow to commence by 3:45 PM. Good stuff Mike. That snow line should start to drop pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks way overdone for my backyard but I will take it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snowing in Haywood county. Confirmed report on Hemp hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks way overdone for my backyard but I will take it lol. Yeah that map looks odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This type of system would have easily been able to produce 1-3" in the foothills if we didn't have the sinking/drying air behind the big storm and warm temps today. Asheville would have been a nice spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Good map. But big difference between dusting and 2". My forecast would be a flurries to a dusting from central Alleghany to eastern Buncombe County.Ray uses it rather frequently so I thought I would give it a try lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Very healthy. I think Beech Mountain will be in a 4-8" sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Pouring snow in highlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snowing lightly at Wolf Ridge per web cam. I would expect that means Joe is cashing also. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Snowing here in mitchell county border areas on Unaka range, Iron mtn, Buladean valley, and Roan mtn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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