FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Based on the observations of 4" at Beech, 4" at LeConte and snowfall amounts recorded in Maggie Valley, Waynesville, Balsam, Mt. Pisgah etc....plus the 0.3" precip totals that were observed in Haywood county downsloped from the Balsams....which I usually double to get the approximate ridge top total based on previous observations..minimum of 4" fell in the higher elevations of the Balsams with 6" quite possible so overall pleased on how it turned out. It did appear that the duration of the snow was shorter than expected when prevented boom totals but nevertheless one of the better quick hitting storms of the season. I was actually quite surprised, when Ray says something like a dusting to 2 inches or whatever the amount, i'm always on the lesser end. But I managed to push out 2 inches so here it could have overperformed slightly. good quick storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Light snow and 29o here with about an inch on the ground...Mitchell county schools out again...8 straight school days out for snow and 13 days total missed in 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 A beautiful wet snow, my favorite! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Another angle Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Another angle Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Incredible picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nice pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Great pictures, Nelson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Thanks for taking the time to get those. You are great with your drone ! Have you had it over on Roan Mountain Jane Bald or Mount Mitchell yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Your aerial pictures are amazing as usual, Nelson! And I like nchighcountrywx's idea of taking the drone up to Roan Highlands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Wow...Those are incredible...I think the second one beats the pics from app ski mtn you took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Thanks guys! I have not taken it to Roan Mtn or Mt Mitchell...lets hope we get another wet snow this season and I'll see what I can do. I also got some video of this sunrise that's pretty spectacular, may put together a video in the next day or two. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Can I ask what drone/camera you use? Might need to spend some of my tax money on some goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Can I ask what drone/camera you use? Might need to spend some of my tax money on some goodies.My main rig is an inspire 1 proSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nice Nelson, what a great talent you have! A talent that I believe will become very profitable in the future if the FAA doesn't intervene with new laws. Thanks for sharing with us man and I might have some drone questions for you at some point in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Thanks guys! I have not taken it to Roan Mtn or Mt Mitchell...lets hope we get another wet snow this season and I'll see what I can do. I also got some video of this sunrise that's pretty spectacular, may put together a video in the next day or two. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk you should head down this way and take it over the cullasaja River gorge and whitewater falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Yeah awsome pics Nelson. Had about an inch this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nice pics. I want a drone! I'm down in Salter Path at the beach house. Me and my boys are tuna fishing this weekend. It'll be 50's warming to the mid 60's by Sat. Coming back on Monday. Don't let it snow without me !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 We have had flurries the entire day up here in Boone. Anyone else? Didn't recall seeing that in the forecast Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 If only we could get some cold air in for our next storm. If it takes the right track and we get the cold air, we will be golden. But I'm still highly doubting anything other than some back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro was very generous this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I am really liking the way things are setting up next week. I just don't see this low cutting and the if it doesn't it looks like it will really ramp up. We are in a great spot here in WNC, I am liking what a lot of the EPS members were advertising. I'd definitely like it if I lived in the mountains. Not sure about here. It may be a west of I-77 special. I'm all-in, anyways, though, because it's late February. We usually get sloppy seconds from WNC specials in the NW Piedmont, anyways, so I'll look forward to the sloppy inch on the front or the backend! Can we dial up this WNC special, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'd definitely like it if I lived in the mountains. Not sure about here. It may be a west of I-77 special. I'm all-in, anyways, though, because it's late February. We usually get sloppy seconds from WNC specials in the NW Piedmont, anyways, so I'll look forward to the sloppy inch on the front or the backend! Can we dial up this WNC special, though? I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'll take it. I thought I was in the banter thread, haha. I could easily see something like the following happening, though. It's been awhile since we've seen a legit WNC special that blanks the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I thought I was in the banter thread, haha. I could easily see something like the following happening, though. It's been awhile since we've seen a legit WNC special that blanks the Piedmont. it sure has. I can't remember the last storm that was a Mtn special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I am really liking the way things are setting up next week. I just don't see this low cutting and the if it doesn't it looks like it will really ramp up. We are in a great spot here in WNC, I am liking what a lot of the EPS members were advertising. I guess I'm in the this will be a non-event camp. Lack of cold air no matter what track the low follows. The current huge early Spring thaw running amok all the way into my backyard here in Michigan is going to kill the meager snow pack over a large area making cold air at the surface further South even harder to come by. Having said that, on the backside, some nice upslope snows should follow for the normal spots especially if the low really gets cranking and tracks way West pulling a lot of moisture West of the mountains to be pulled back Southeast with the cold air. Looking at year to date snowfall at the Ski resorts: http://www.skisoutheast.com/snow-reports/ I see that Beech is up to 57". A nice improvement but still will likely fall short of their average of 90"..or the Ray's Weather prediction of 110"..or other's 200% of average or 180". (Note: Beech snowfall measures are not taken at the top of the mountain. I estimate it probably snows 10 to 20" more per season at the summit than it does in the town at Beech.) Perhaps a deep late season upper level low will make up the difference for the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I didn't like the storm to start with and thus far it appears a good thing to not get my hopes up. Like I mentioned yesterday there's not much cold air to work with even with a coastal track. Maybe the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I guess I'm in the this will be a non-event camp. Lack of cold air no matter what track the low follows. The current huge early Spring thaw running amok all the way into my backyard here in Michigan is going to kill the meager snow pack over a large area making cold air at the surface further South even harder to come by. Having said that, on the backside, some nice upslope snows should follow for the normal spots especially if the low really gets cranking and tracks way West pulling a lot of moisture West of the mountains to be pulled back Southeast with the cold air. Looking at year to date snowfall at the Ski resorts: http://www.skisoutheast.com/snow-reports/ I see that Beech is up to 57". A nice improvement but still will likely fall short of their average of 90"..or the Ray's Weather prediction of 110"..or other's 200% of average or 180". (Note: Beech snowfall measures are not taken at the top of the mountain. I estimate it probably snows 10 to 20" more per season at the summit than it does in the town at Beech.) Perhaps a deep late season upper level low will make up the difference for the mountains? 12z Para Euro still says this one will be a very close call. Column is very close to frozen aloft when the main batch of precip moves over KAVL. Also the Para develops a meso high on the NC/VA border that helps keep that column cold. It is a much closer call then you are alluding to. As far as mountain snowfall, it looks like it isn't so far fetched for places to reach average now. 30" at Beech with a month and a half left to go is not crazy. Sugar is also around 20" off from their avg now, so that is certainly within reach. I recall back before the last large storm a few saying that things didn't look good for snow until Feb. And we all know how that turned out. Lets just see how this plays out instead of jumping ship 5 days out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's not there. I just don't believe we can get a good hit. I hope I'm wrong but I see nothing that can sway my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's not there. I just don't believe we can get a good hit. I hope I'm wrong but I see nothing that can sway my opinion. Go read from pg 28-35 of this thread. No cold air, low cuts through TN Valley.. That is all that is posted. Point being, lets wait until Sunday night to say this will be a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z Para Euro still says this one will be a very close call. Column is very close to frozen aloft when the main batch of precip moves over KAVL. Also the Para develops a meso high on the NC/VA border that helps keep that column cold. It is a much closer call then you are alluding to. As far as mountain snowfall, it looks like it isn't so far fetched for places to reach average now. 30" at Beech with a month and a half left to go is not crazy. Sugar is also around 20" off from their avg now, so that is certainly within reach. I recall back before the last large storm a few saying that things didn't look good for snow until Feb. And we all know how that turned out. Lets just see how this plays out instead of jumping ship 5 days out again. Well, the GFS shows the freezing level at a nose bleed level of 700mb!! More likely, the actual thermal fields will fall in between the GFS and the Euro yielding a non-snow event. Yes there is still time for the solutions to change but still leaves the problem of the lack of a cold air source. (FYI-It was 89 degrees in Garden City, Kansas yesterday. It will likely hit 60 degrees in parts of Michigan today! Cold air is only going to return/recover slowly especially with loss of snow pack.) You might recall I mentioned that I gave it about a 50% chance of a major storm in the month of January. If you subtract out the totals from just that one storm, this season to date would have been more or less a near complete bust for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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