franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 In March. I suspect he will be able to spend a lot more time up there than me so hopefully we should get some great reports if I can get him to post here. Hopefully, he will also install a Davis Weather Link setup on the observation tower for continuous weather data. I still plan on hanging around here for awhile as I find the local climate here in the mountains rather fascinating.are you planning on buying another piece of property in the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 are you planning on buying another piece of property in the state? No. I decided to change directions with my weather hobby. After observing the Indian Monsoon last July, looking at a distant thunderstorm over Romania, observing the glaciers of Southern Greenland and watching the weather in a Costa Rican rain forest in December, I think traveling the World enjoying local climates all over will be very enjoyable keeping me busy and entertained for many years to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 No. I decided to change directions with my weather hobby. After observing the Indian Monsoon last July, looking at a distant thunderstorm over Romania, observing the glaciers of Southern Greenland and watching the weather in a Costa Rican rain forest in December, I think traveling the World enjoying local climates all over will be very enjoyable keeping me busy and entertained for many years to come! You know when you call it "my mountain" and some of your narrative here it makes you sound a little pretentious.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You know when you call it "my mountain" and some of your narrative here it makes you sound a little pretentious.. Yes yes....as a flea claims his dog as his own to be sure! Do note that "Mike Gold" is an alias/persona created for another type of online forum and I carry some of that over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You know when you call it "my mountain" and some of your narrative here it makes you sound a little pretentious.. Well he does/did kind of own the top, so him saying my mountain top is accurate, not pretentious imo. I hope that the new owner is willing to share observations with us too! As far as microclimates are concerned I have heard of a village I believe in Venezuela where Thunderstorms develop right on the shore where the ocean and mountain meet and the lightning last for 5-6 hours while the storm basically stays stationary. That is something I would love to see! Good luck and I am glad that you will still stop by with your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well he does/did kind of own the top, so him saying my mountain top is accurate, not pretentious imo. I hope that the new owner is willing to share observations with us too! As far as microclimates are concerned I have heard of a village I believe in Venezuela where Thunderstorms develop right on the shore where the ocean and mountain meet and the lightning last for 5-6 hours while the storm basically stays stationary. That is something I would love to see! Good luck and I am glad that you will still stop by with your thoughts! It is on the list if that country ever gets its act together! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336338/The-everlasting-storm-Stunning-images-unique-phenomenon-Venezuela-lightning-raged-EVERY-NIGHT-thousands-years.html http://www.slate.com/articles/life/world_of_wonders/2011/02/an_everlasting_lightning_storm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yes yes....as a flea claims his dog as his own to be sure! Do note that "Mike Gold" is an alias/persona created for another type of online forum and I carry some of that over here. Was just my impression that's all, I know you are a knowledgeable board member just seem a little smug at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 No. I decided to change directions with my weather hobby. After observing the Indian Monsoon last July, looking at a distant thunderstorm over Romania, observing the glaciers of Southern Greenland and watching the weather in a Costa Rican rain forest in December, I think traveling the World enjoying local climates all over will be very enjoyable keeping me busy and entertained for many years to come! Fantastic sights, Mike. I hope that someday I might be able to enjoy similar excursions. Thanks for participating in our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Nice little flurry action currently. Cold (25.2) and windy. Kinda' reminds me of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ray's calling for double-digit totals along the western escarpment through next Wed. Sounds fun ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ray's calling for double-digit totals along the western escarpment through next Wed. Sounds fun ! Looks like you will be living the good life Joe! I am hoping we can find a way to pick up an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah next week looks unreal for some great upslope action finally with deep cold settling in. I'm excited about some double digit upslope snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yeah next week looks unreal for some great upslope action finally with deep cold settling in. I'm excited about some double digit upslope snow totals. Yea I'm excited even next to the blue ridge for 3 days worth. Gonna be fun to watch...oh and I have developed a bad feeling in my gut when I think about the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Yea I'm excited even next to the blue ridge for 3 days worth. Gonna be fun to watch...oh and I have developed a bad feeling in my gut when I think about the rest of winter.Lol don't worry. It's going to have to play out but one week at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Last year din't deliver the goods till February and March. We're already above climatology here in the escarpment. I think the next few weeks has the potential to be interesting. I wish you guys the best up in the highlands, hopefully them double digit totals verify. I'm not expecting much here in the escarpment maybe a stray snow/rain shower at best. I'm only a few miles from Avery County, I will definitely be cruising around checking things out. Does anyone know which day looks good for the best upslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It is only going to take 50-100 more miles of a NW shift on the models to put WNC in the game for Sunday. If the 850mb low can get captured just a hair faster and the trough goes negative over AL/GA, we will be in business. Upslope could also enhance the flow if it were to push this far west. Who knows, crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 It is only going to take 50-100 more miles of a NW shift on the models to put WNC in the game for Sunday. If the 850mb low can get captured just a hair faster and the trough goes negative over AL/GA, we will be in business. Upslope could also enhance the flow if it were to push this far west. Who knows, crazier things have happened.Lol yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It is only going to take 50-100 more miles of a NW shift on the models to put WNC in the game for Sunday. If the 850mb low can get captured just a hair faster and the trough goes negative over AL/GA, we will be in business. Upslope could also enhance the flow if it were to push this far west. Who knows, crazier things have happened.I'm trying really hard to believe there's no chance of that so I don't get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 6z NAM puts WNC in play. Could see a few snow flurries out of this if we aren't careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 6z NAM puts WNC in play. Could see a few snow flurries out of this if we aren't careful. sounds great, do you think KAVL could see an inch or two Monday night Tuesday time frame? t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 sounds great, do you think KAVL could see an inch or two Monday night Tuesday time frame? t Yeah man I believe the airport should see around and An inch or so. I guess some mets around here are waiting for the snow hole that shows on the models around Asheville to disappear. It won't though because it never does. The models try and compensate for downsloping but the formula used cannot accurately predict how far out the TN mountains the moisture will push. Hell I could see downtown get 2-3" with this flow. I have noticed with northwest flow snow here to examine the size of the feed of moisture that will bank up against the mountains and then compare that with 700mb winds. If 700mb winds are above 20kts, upward vertical velocities with elevate moisture through upslope into the dendritic zone where snowflakes form. If surface winds are also stout, this moisture will be propelled into the valleys below. So with that said. The moisture stream looks favorable for 36+ hours with flow whereas a normal NWF only hangs around for 12 hours. With surface winds expected to be high and 700mb winds even high, getting moisture into the dendritic zone won't be a problem because basically the dendritic zone will set up around the top of the peaks. Honestly I don't really know how much to expect, but I think people could be in for a big surprise because the dynamics support a very interesting scenario.. even into the valleys of WNC and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah man I believe the airport should see around and An inch or so. I guess some mets around here are waiting for the snow hole that shows on the models around Asheville to disappear. It won't though because it never does. The models try and compensate for downsloping but the formula used cannot accurately predict how far out the TN mountains the moisture will push. Hell I could see downtown get 2-3" with this flow. I have noticed with northwest flow snow here to examine the size of the feed of moisture that will bank up against the mountains and then compare that with 700mb winds. If 700mb winds are above 20kts, upward vertical velocities with elevate moisture through upslope into the dendritic zone where snowflakes form. If surface winds are also stout, this moisture will be propelled into the valleys below. So with that said. The moisture stream looks favorable for 36+ hours with flow whereas a normal NWF only hangs around for 12 hours. With surface winds expected to be high and 700mb winds even high, getting moisture into the dendritic zone won't be a problem because basically the dendritic zone will set up around the top of the peaks. Honestly I don't really know how much to expect, but I think people could be in for a big surprise because the dynamics support a very interesting scenario.. even into the valleys of WNC and beyond. What day do you think the best upslope will happen? I was going to cruise around Avery County just don't know what day would be best Monday Evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What day do you think the best upslope will happen? I was going to cruise around Avery County just don't know what day would be best Monday Evening? I think that sounds like a great plan! Looks like the best forcing will be in place between 8pm-12am Monday night so I would think that the chance for seeing heavy snowfall in that area will increase. Take some pictures and post them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thanks for the updates Ward. Looking forward to a wintry week whatever falls. Have friends coming up from Florida Thurs. for their annual ski trip. Looks like they won't be disappointed with conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thanks for the updates Ward. Looking forward to a wintry week whatever falls. Have friends coming up from Florida Thurs. for their annual ski trip. Looks like they won't be disappointed with conditions. No problem Joe! I hope that they can get to your house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That's true. Haven't thought about. That got me thinking, I guess it's too early for anyone to predict accum amounts. Neither Ray or GSP have spit any totals out yet. Looking forward to seeing some maps maybe tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That's true. Haven't thought about. That got me thinking, I guess it's too early for anyone to predict accum amounts. Neither Ray or GSP have spit any totals out yet. Looking forward to seeing some maps maybe tomorrow afternoon.should be warnings issued for the border counties with advisory for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm hearing 3-6 is the safe best for most of the APPS with west pushing a foot and the east a couple of inches. I honestly think 4-8 is a little more reasonable for most of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The favored areas should exceed double digits, the lakes are warm and the column saturation is great up to 700mb for over 48 hours. Met and Joe should cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That's true. Haven't thought about. That got me thinking, I guess it's too early for anyone to predict accum amounts. Neither Ray or GSP have spit any totals out yet. Looking forward to seeing some maps maybe tomorrow afternoon. Yeah this one is a tough call but I think above 4000' on the TN/NC border see 10"+. I am inclined to think that even the valleys of WNC see 1"-3" from this flow. I will put together my map tomorrow before the game, but I think it will be hammering down Monday night all across WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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