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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Measured around 7:30 and reported 5.75". Maybe picked up another tenth during this last burst. Happy with the 5.75 as it was in line with most level headed guidance. Also,i have an 18 month old so, he needs to be able to walk in it :)

 

Only one reason I quoted this post. For posterity so new posters can read & learn. This is the way you optimistically look at snow. Someone who understands that crazy top end numbers are probably not gonna verify. Happy with what they get & putting a positive spin on it. There's a lesson in here fellas! Congrats on your snow and your attitude Mark!!!

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Awesome Jason! 

12 inches here pending today,which i don't see much coming this way. AVL Airport 13.4,8th biggest snow of all time. Very nice snowstorm here. Hopefully, the winter holds more surprises.

 

 

Well Don, after tracking systems over the past 15 years I have learned to always lean low regardless of models outputs. Projected Snow maps are nice to look at and dissect to the millionth degree. However, I have (IMBY) never have never seen anything bust high. I know those around our area have, but I have not, and thats cool. The thermal belt in which I live in normally keeps systems at bay and is named that that reason :)

Now, if the Low would have stayed closed and transferred sooner to the coast maybe a few more Inches due to the death of the warm nose. But its all good. 

 

 

Only one reason I quoted this post. For posterity so new posters can read & learn. This is the way you optimistically look at snow. Someone who understands that crazy top end numbers are probably not gonna verify. Happy with what they get & putting a positive spin on it. There's a lesson in here fellas! Congrats on your snow and your attitude Mark!!!

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

365

FXUS62 KGSP 231135

AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

635 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE

WEEKEND WEARS ON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ATOP THE REGION

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE

CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...PARTIALLY FOR

AVIATION-RELATED GRIDS BUT ALSO TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE UPSTATE

AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO HANG ON. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR

NOW. PTYPE IS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST.

WE REALLY GOT LUCKY WITH THIS EVENT AS THE SURFACE COLD LAYER

ENDED UP A LITTLE DEEPER THAN WHAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED...RESULTING

IN MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...AND SPARING US THE WIDESPREAD

POWER OUTAGES AND ICE-RELATED IMPACTS ORIGINALLY FEARED /THERE ARE

STILL MANY OUTAGES...BUT NOT ON THE SCALE WE MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE

SEEN/. THE INITIAL WARM NOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY

MORNING ALSO RESULTED IN MORE SLEET THAN SNOW AT ONSET...WHICH

KEPT DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS A BIT. IN ALL THOUGH WIDESPREAD 7-10

INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS WITH 10-15 INCHES...SOME HIGHER

AMOUNTS...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. PIEDMONT AREAS WERE A MIXED BAG

DEPENDING ON SLEET VS SNOW VS FREEZING RAIN BUT ALL IN ALL STILL A

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AND ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS /FRIDAY WAS

THE 4TH SNOWIEST SINGLE DAY EVER AT ASHEVILLE...AND THE STORM TOTAL

OF 13.4 WAS 8TH HIGHEST ON RECORD THERE/. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC

INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW/SLEET/ICE TOTALS.

AT THE SURFACE...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE WESTERN LOW OF THE

MILLER-B HAS FILLED IN WHILE THE EASTERN LOW HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE

AND IS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT WORKS ITS WAY UP THE

COAST. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERALLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AT

AFD TIME. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AT AFD TIME JUST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY

OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT AS THIS CONTINUES TO DIVE

SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PICK UP. INITIAL CONCERN

IS PRIMARILY TRYING TO FIGURE OUT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...IF

ANY. AFTER A RAPID DRYING OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SEEING A BIT OF BLOSSOMING AGAIN AS SYNOPTIC

LIFT PICKS UP AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE. OVERALL THIS SHOULD NOT

AMOUNT TO MUCH...MAINLY JUST SOME FLURRIES...AND FOR THE MOST PART

THE PIEDMONT IS DONE WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. DOWNSLOPING WILL

CONTINUE TO DO ITS THING OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT

PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...WHILE THE MOISTURE ATTENDANT WITH THE

UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST. VERY DIFFERENT STORY ALONG

THE WESTERN SLOPES OF COURSE WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN

PROLONGED SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE SOME OF THESE WORKING ACROSS THE

SLOPES AND INTO SOME OF THE PASSES AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ASHEVILLE

FOR EXAMPLE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE

A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS JUST BASED

ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...BUT WITH THE DRY SNOW CANNOT RULE OUT SOME

HIGHER TOTALS.

AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG

BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS BUILDING IN...THE OTHER CONCERN

WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT MAY

BE SPARED SOME OF THE GUSTINESS BUT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CAN BE

EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP THIS WORDING

INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN

RANGES WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT WITH TREES

AND POWER LINES WEIGHED DOWN BY SNOW AND ICE IN THE MEANTIME WITH

THE GUSTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES SEEM

LIKELY. WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS

THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW

SNOW. THE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ELSEWHERE

TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING EFFECTS TODAY...AND MAY HAVE TO REVISIT

PRODUCTS FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT

OF SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO PEEK THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY /IF ANY/

VERSUS THE SNOWPACK. MODELS USUALLY DO NOT DO A VERY GOOD JOB OF

DEPICTING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT RESULT FROM THE SNOW...SO

HAVE LEANED A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS TODAY. MANY AREAS WILL NOT MAKE

IT ABOVE FREEZING SO WILL SEE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT

ALONG AREA ROADS. PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS MAY CREEP

ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT JUST ENOUGH TO MELT

SOME OF THE SNOW/SLEET BEFORE RE-FREEZING TONIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES

DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AT 230 AM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SE OF

CAPE COD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF STREAM

TO THE BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MS RIVER

VALLEY. THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY...WHILE THE RIDGE

PROGRESSES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BY TUESDAY

MORNING THE RIDGE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED AND

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN

MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY MORNING DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER

THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE GULF

INFLOW SETS UP OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT

OVER THE PLAINS. THIS GULF INFLOW SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY...APPROACHING

THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE SPREADS

EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT

MOUNTAINS VALLEYS MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM AROUND 15

DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS

RISING HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT MODERATE THE COOL AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AT 230 AM SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER

TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN MEXICO...BETWEEN

RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE WEST COAST. SLOW

PROGRESSION WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS TO EASTERN CANADA AND THE

GULF STATES BY THURSDAY...WHEN THE MODELS TRY TO CLOSE OFF AND UPPER

LOW NEAR THE MS RIVER DELTA. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN

SEABOARD...AND THE LOW REACHES TOE CAROLINA COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSSES THE WESTERN

CAROLINAS AND NE GA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO

MODERATE PRECIPITATION...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN IN

NC...BUT TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. MOISTURE PERSISTS

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING LINGERING RAINFALL IN THE PIEDMONT

INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IN NC ON

TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE MODELS DEVELOP A

SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF...WITH THE ECMWF WAVE MUCH

DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM WAVE. BY THURSDAY THE

ECMWF SPREADS MOISTURE BACK NORTH OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN

CAROLINAS...WHILE THE GFS MOISTURE JUST REACHES THE COAST. ECMWF

THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT FREEZING

RAIN. THIS ECMWF LOW WOULD DEPART THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...TAKING

THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

TEMPERATURE WILL WARM FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL

AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...THEN WILL FALL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL AS

HEIGHTS FALL....WARMING AGAIN BEING THE UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...STILL SOME LINGERING -SHSN ACROSS THE

AREA AND HAVE EXTENDED WORDING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. MAY

HAVE TO EXTEND IT MORE AT KAVL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

RADAR TRENDS. MIXED BAG OF CIGS OUT THERE BUT MAINLY HIGH MVFR

TO LOW VFR AND HAVE STARTED TAFS MVFR EITHER IN PREVAILING OR

TEMPO GROUP. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE -SN EXPECTED AS

WELL. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING FOR ALL BUT

KAVL. OVC VFR SKIES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD

SCATTER OUT AFTER 00Z FOR ALL BUT KAVL WHERE LOW VFR SHOULD REMAIN

IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES CONTINUING

THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE. AS FOR WINDS...FOR ALL BUT KAVL...NNE

WINDS WILL BACK N TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND

10KT TO START BUT WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS TO 20KT OR SO POSSIBLE

THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING OVERNIGHT BELOW 10KT AS THE GRADIENT

SLACKENS. FOR KAVL...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH

15-20KT G25-30KT BY LATE MORNING...LASTING ALMOST THROUGH THE END

OF THE PERIOD BUT WITH LOW-END GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY

MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP

TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-06Z

KCLT LOW 50% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

KGSP LOW 31% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 65% HIGH 83%

KHKY LOW 37% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

KGMU LOW 56% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

KAND MED 75% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING

WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY

EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-

017-018-026-028.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ029.

NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-

058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.

SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR

SCZ001>010-012>014.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ011-

019.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH

NEAR TERM...TDP

SHORT TERM...JAT

LONG TERM...JAT

AVIATION...TDP

Copyright: Wright-Weather, LLC (1997-2006)

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Moonhowl

Moonhowl

Posted
Posted

Picked up 2" additional overnight- total of about 10" still some OK snow falling, surprising since we are now downsloping.....

Had fun, will head back to the warmer (not by much) climes of GA....

 

In East Asheville about three miles from the Tunnel; I am measuring about 6"; I am sure there has been some compaction but not that much.

 

PS be safe traveling back to GA.

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted

Congrats Jason!, anytime you get a foot it's one for the books. Hope you get to enjoy it today.

 

Awesome Jason! 

 

 

 

 

Thanks guys!  We definitely have the best sub   sub-forum.  Looks like the NW guys will beat my 12 inch total. Hopefully, Joe will join them.    I went out to shovel. That is some deep snow! Surprisingly, it is fairly powdery, but it was still heavy, 20 degrees, windy, and I was cold. 

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Thanks guys! We definitely have the best sub sub-forum. Looks like the NW guys will beat my 12 inch total. Hopefully, Joe will join them. I went out to shovel. That is some deep snow! Surprisingly, it is fairly powdery, but it was still heavy, 20 degrees, windy, and I was cold.

Congrats Jason! Glad you were able to rake it in on this one!

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Thanks guys!  We definitely have the best sub   sub-forum.  Looks like the NW guys will beat my 12 inch total. Hopefully, Joe will join them.    I went out to shovel. That is some deep snow! Surprisingly, it is fairly powdery, but it was still heavy, 20 degrees, windy, and I was cold. 

 

 

Thanks Jason! I'm up to 9 and still have moderate snow. Might even amp up a little this afternoon.

 

Congrats to all and thank you guys for all the hard work keeping up with this storm. 

 

In the spirit of looking forward, anything on the horizon worth watching? 

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted

Thanks Jason! I'm up to 9 and still have moderate snow. Might even amp up a little this afternoon.

 

Congrats to all and thank you guys for all the hard work keeping up with this storm. 

 

In the spirit of looking forward, anything on the horizon worth watching? 

 

You will make it !!  Looks like the end of the next week holds some potential for something, but it is far from a slam dunk, then a warm up, and then some hope for later February and March. That is what I have collected from those wiser than me.  :)

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

No doubt. Thanks to Met85 for throwing us foothills boys a rope :)

Thanks guys!  We definitely have the best sub   sub-forum.  Looks like the NW guys will beat my 12 inch total. Hopefully, Joe will join them.    I went out to shovel. That is some deep snow! Surprisingly, it is fairly powdery, but it was still heavy, 20 degrees, windy, and I was cold. 

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Thanks !! Good forecast on your part. I am ready for the next one. :snowing:

Thanks man, maybe next Friday/weekend? Haha who knows but it is possible. GFS shows a suppressed system and euro shows a little overrunning qpf but a nw trend would put us close.. Maybe a little warm. Who knows man haha look where we came with this storm from 6 days ago!
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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

NWF bands are impressive, that's for sure. Although maybe slightly biased high due to drifting, our recent 6 hours snow board measurement put us at 13.7" of snowfall and counting as of 10 am. Snow depth is still 7-10 inches due to sleet, melting, and drifting, though.

 

We'll probably end around 14-15" of snowfall after NWF snow is done.

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