DopplerWx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 hey guys. im thinking of going on a weekend ski trip to appalachian ski mtn vday weekend. any tips/advice? i havent skied in 10yrs and my wife has never skied period, so hopefully it will be a good starting point for us. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I am still liking Friday morning for some backside snow showers around WNC at the least. The euro continues to pick up on a weak deformation zone developing over WNC and providing NWF type action with the higher mountains getting decent snow totals. This will be similar to the Sunday morning event that we had 2 weeks ago, where most got a dusting to 1" of snowfall even down in the French Broad River Valley. Lots of time for this to change, but the models are beginning to harp on that signature. I am already close to climo here at my house as far as snowfall, so any more that falls will be bones. This will go down as an above average year for most in the Valley's of WNC as far a snowfall avg. The higher mountains though will need an abundance of nuisance NWF event to reach above average, but another big snowstorm like two Friday's ago and some peaks will be close to average. At this point, I see basically no chance that the mountains will get anywhere close to average. For example, Beech Mtn has only recorded 21"(Avg 90"+) and it is now February! Probably only Mt. Mitchell might reach average due to the freakish storm that hit there along with some of the Southern Blue Ridge areas that got dumped on and don't normally receive much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 At this point, I see basically no chance that the mountains will get anywhere close to average. For example, Beech Mtn has only recorded 21"(Avg 90"+) and it is now February! Probably only Mt. Mitchell might reach average due to the freakish storm that hit there along with some of the Southern Blue Ridge areas that got dumped on and don't normally receive much snow.I still think it's possible, as the higher elevations still have 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I still think it's possible, as the higher elevations still have 3 months. Over the last 4 years, Beech has averaged about 39" from now till the end of the season. 39" + 21=60". So basically, it would need to double it's normal snowfall going forward to just reach average. First week of February which normally is prime time for Beech will be uneventful. LeConte is in about as bad as Beech. The normally snowiest location South of New York....a site near Davis WV has only managed to muster 53 inches: http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com/ Only one year in the last 15 has had less snow. Basically, the trend is NW flow events have been few and far between this year and those that have occurred have generally under-performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Over the last 4 years, Beech has averaged about 39" from now till the end of the season. 39" + 21=60". So basically, it would need to double it's normal snowfall going forward to just reach average. First week of February which normally is prime time for Beech will be uneventful. LeConte is in about as bad as Beech. The normally snowiest location South of New York....a site near Davis WV has only managed to muster 53 inches: http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com/ Only one year in the last 15 has had less snow. Basically, the trend is NW flow events have been few and far between this year and those that have occurred have generally under-performed. I agree on the lack of good flow snow. Its been a few years since there was worth one to chase at soco gap which usually does very well. We also have not had a true Miller a storm this year. It's been a Miller b or a double barrel storm killing the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 At this point, I see basically no chance that the mountains will get anywhere close to average. For example, Beech Mtn has only recorded 21"(Avg 90"+) and it is now February! Probably only Mt. Mitchell might reach average due to the freakish storm that hit there along with some of the Southern Blue Ridge areas that got dumped on and don't normally receive much snow. While I agree that it is not very likely, I wouldn't say that there is no chance. Most on here called off January before the big storm and that ended up bringing some valleys to climo already. It will be interesting to see if we can get a big storm to bring more close to average because that is what it is going to take now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 06Z NAM shows sustained winds of 80 mph tomorrow at ridge top level: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=850wh&rh=2016020206&fh=33&r=rv&dpdt= (click on map location to look at soundings) Will be several times worse than this on my mountain tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Nice Mike. I think we have a lot of winter left in the tank. Watch out for March also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like some good NWFS after the strong cold front passage next week as well as some clipper type systems so the typical areas should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like some good NWFS after the strong cold front passage next week as well as some clipper type systems so the typical areas should do well.Yeah I like what's coming. Especially around the 9 onward. Looks pretty active with deep cold and some good chances of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yeah I like what's coming. Especially around the 9 onward. Looks pretty active with deep cold and some good chances of snow. I really like the upcoming pattern. Rates are going to be very high with the clipper being modeled. Not to mention the fact that the bombing out LP modeled before the clipper could very well trend our way and give us another couple of inches of snow. I think by this time next week most who post in the mountain thread will have snow on the ground again. Good times ahead guys! Oh and watch out for Friday morning lol, I have watched this period for a while now and the euro dropped .4" of snow on KAVL, so that leads me to believe that flurries will certainly be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I really like the upcoming pattern. Rates are going to be very high with the clipper being modeled. Not to mention the fact that the bombing out LP modeled before the clipper could very well trend our way and give us another couple of inches of snow. I think by this time next week most who post in the mountain thread will have snow on the ground again. Good times ahead guys! Oh and watch out for Friday morning lol, I have watched this period for a while now and the euro dropped .4" of snow on KAVL, so that leads me to believe that flurries will certainly be possible.I think our best hope is the 2nd wave. There is just not enough room for the first to amplify with the next trough in its heels. Hopefully that trough can dig more and become something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think our best hope is the 2nd wave. There is just not enough room for the first to amplify with the next trough in its heels. Hopefully that trough can dig more and become something better. Meantime, the low-level jet is crashing into the mountains. 70 Knots at the ridge top! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think our best hope is the 2nd wave. There is just not enough room for the first to amplify with the next trough in its heels. Hopefully that trough can dig more and become something better. I agree with you Franklin. The weenie in me wants to believe maybe the 5h can capture the 850mb just a tad earlier. It does however look like a central NC/SC and east event. Oh well at least this is better then tracking 60 and rain lol. Those are some impressive winds Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I agree with you Franklin. The weenie in me wants to believe maybe the 5h can capture the 850mb just a tad earlier. It does however look like a central NC/SC and east event. Oh well at least this is better then tracking 60 and rain lol. Those are some impressive winds Mike! With this type of pattern, the winds tend to be laminar flow and are generally not felt on the ground unless something mixes them down like a thunderstorm. Another exception is just a few of the properly exposed ridgetops that basically scrap through the stable layer that hugs the ground. This setup, in fact, is the only normal setup that my mountain really gets nailed on as the winds tend to be damped from other directions. (It is out of the SW at the ridge top.) A neighbor was thinking about going up to the top this morning to try to verify this very local but perhaps exceptional windstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 With this type of pattern, the winds tend to be laminar flow and are generally not felt on the ground unless something mixes them down like a thunderstorm. Another exception is just a few of the properly exposed ridgetops that basically scrap through the stable layer that hugs the ground. This setup, in fact, is the only normal setup that my mountain really gets nailed on as the winds tend to be damped from other directions. (It is out of the SW at the ridge top.) A neighbor was thinking about going up to the top this morning to try to verify this very local but perhaps exceptional windstorm. Living on a high peak in WNC has got to be thrilling. Good analysis and something that most in the valley would never even think about. I hope your neighbor makes it up there, I would love to see what he documents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Living on a high peak in WNC has got to be thrilling. Good analysis and something that most in the valley would never even think about. I hope your neighbor makes it up there, I would love to see what he documents! Living on a high peak in WNC has got to be thrilling. Good analysis and something that most in the valley would never even think about. I hope your neighbor makes it up there, I would love to see what he documents! Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. I have an accepted offer on the mountain top. The one consolation is that the buyer's hobby is weather and I will see if I can get him to post his future observations/experiences here on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Mike, winds were roaring here this morning! What a monster upslope event forecasted to unfold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Didn't notice any winds here this morning but we did have quite a bit of flooding here in Boone, had a few swift water rescues. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Very serious flooding going on right now. Cars under water and many roads impassable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Very serious flooding going on right now. Cars under water and many roads impassable It appears almost 5" of rain has fallen in parts of Jackson County (6.4" at Lake T.): http://water.weather.gov/afws/stprecipsummary.php?state=NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The rain this morning.... ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The rain this morning.... ouch. And with all the snow melt it's sloppy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hey guys are the Super Clippers still on for next week, Monday night thru Wednesday time frame, not much excitement in here so just wandering. Isn't the real cold air next week suppose to produce high snow ratios plus small Low pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Dont look for much unless you live near the TN border, if the shortwaves dig south enough it may mean a few inches for places like Asheville and east of the Blue Ridge, but it doesnt look great for anything more than snow showers/flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Dont look for much unless you live near the TN border, if the shortwaves dig south enough it may mean a few inches for places like Asheville and east of the Blue Ridge, but it doesnt look great for anything more than snow showers/flurries Yep see what you mean, I guess the trends for these clippers have not shown up as well as they did the other day, there was a lot of hype about the digging and really cold air producing some high ratio snows even around the Asheville area plus south and east of Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yep see what you mean, I guess the trends for these clippers have not shown up as well as they did the other day, there was a lot of hype about the digging and really cold air producing some high ratio snows even around the Asheville area plus south and east of Asheville. I wouldn't give up on seeing snow. This will be an anomalous period of flow that we don't see every winter and could provide a surprise. Clippers don't normally produce for the valleys of WNC but most clippers don't last for 24+ hrs. Just sit back and enjoy, you are already at climo so the rest is just bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I wouldn't give up on seeing snow. This will be an anomalous period of flow that we don't see every winter and could provide a surprise. Clippers don't normally produce for the valleys of WNC but most clippers don't last for 24+ hrs. Just sit back and enjoy, you are already at climo so the rest is just bonus! Looks like there will be a 48 hour period of good upslope starting Monday morning but cloud level wind direction/velocities will not be optimum for most of the time frame but moisture thickness should be outstanding coupled with very steep lapse rates, little wind shear, and great snowflake production.(The snow flakes will actually be forming in the clouds right at eyeball level on the ridge tops!) Flow will be Westerly for much of it so the Central/Northern Balsams will do better than normal and the TN areas less so when compared to the normal NW flow regime. Having said that, I think it likely will be the best upslope event of the entire season. SnoJoe will be doing a happy dance next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like there will be a 48 hour period of good upslope starting Monday morning but cloud level wind direction/velocities will not be optimum for most of the time frame but moisture thickness should be outstanding coupled with very steep lapse rates, little wind shear, and great snowflake production.(The snow flakes will actually be forming in the clouds right at eyeball level on the ridge tops!) Flow will be Westerly for much of it so the Balsams will do better than normal and the TN areas less so when compared to the normal NW flow regime. Having said that, I think it likely will be the best upslope event of the entire season. SnoJoe will be doing a happy dance next week! those westerly winds are much better for my area too. Probably worth a drive to soco gap for this one.When do you close on the property? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 those westerly winds are much better for my area too. Probably worth a drive to soco gap for this one. When do you close on the property? In March. I suspect he will be able to spend a lot more time up there than me so hopefully we should get some great reports if I can get him to post here. Hopefully, he will also install a Davis Weather Link setup on the observation tower for continuous weather data. I still plan on hanging around here for awhile as I find the local climate here in the mountains rather fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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