• Member Statistics

    16,050
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NWAflizzard
    Newest Member
    NWAflizzard
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
dailylurker

Tracking hurricane Joaquin OTS

Recommended Posts

No other system has been such a "nail-biter" to date, in living memory. About the 4km being OTS, not a big deal. Been doing that when other models were west. 4km was 250 miles east of 0z on the last run.

The differences were always very small. I don't necsarilly think it only has to do with the hurricane. If for some reason the trough digs more than expected etc you could go back to other solutions. Plus as a cat 4 it has helped build ridging aruound itself so its not necessarily feeling the pull east by the low south of Bermuda. There are a number of legitimate solutions that are not OTS still on the table. I guess we are in an age of modeling it shouldn't go back to a hit but still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW... Steve DiMartino on Twitter: "As I stated, if Joaquin passed 75W, then this storm track must be adjusted back to the west."

https://mobile.twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/649763187986984960

 

Does he still think DC is going to get 12"+ all snow on 2/14/07?

 

The NAM is like the Nationals, just playing out the season, throwing in a fist fight here or there, not letting you know what is coming next. But like the Nats, they both suck, and they're both done being useful.

 

NAM and Euro are like Papelbon and Harper.  One chokes and the other is the MVP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No other system has been such a "nail-biter" to date, in living memory. About the 4km being OTS, not a big deal. Been doing that when other models were west. 4km was 250 miles east of 0z on the last run.

For a hurricane? I completely disagree that this was the ultimate nail-biter in a lifetime. No Hurricane watch was ever issued, whereas there have been plenty of warnings/watches issued for other hurricanes that didn't verify.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z GFS a tad west so far thru 15

You guys probably think I'm joking but I'm not. Coming west.

 

 

 

For a hurricane? I completely disagree that this was the ultimate nail-biter in a lifetime. No Hurricane watch was ever issued, whereas there have been plenty of warnings/watches issued for other hurricanes that didn't verify. 

Back before we had advanced standards and models. We use the current baseline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well southeast of the NAM at 24

 

Edit: 39 hrs further west but still headed northeast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a noticeable shift back west overall.. and depending on where it settles hard to say it's the last IMO. Nail biter no, but this storm fits the pattern in a whole lot of ways still. If that weakness was not so pronounced to the east it would likely be a US hit even without a perfect trough. Depending on how fast it does or doesn't break down and how far west it is to start.. still worth watching.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a noticeable shift back west overall.. and depending on where it settles hard to say it's the last IMO. Nail biter no, but this storm fits the pattern in a whole lot of ways still. If that weakness was not so pronounced to the east it would likely be a US hit even without a perfect trough. Depending on how fast it does or doesn't break down and how far west it is to start.. still worth watching.

Way more than worth watching. Look at the phase starting at hr54.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_eus_10.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.