Kmlwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Aren't we mostly concerned about whether or not it gets captured at this point? I mean - if it shifts west that would increase its chances of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z UKIE says no thanks guys... I'll head out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z UKIE says no thanks guys... I'll head out to sea Not like that's shocking news, though. Also probably a good indicator Euro will hold serve. Doesn't the UKIE like to foreshadow the Euro sometimes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Levi Cowan mentioned this a little bit ago on Twitter: 0Z GFS has large area of up to a millibar higher MSLP northeast of Joaquin tomorrow afternoon. Dropsondes helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Not like that's shocking news, though. Also probably a good indicator Euro will hold serve. Doesn't the UKIE like to foreshadow the Euro sometimes? No, it's been sporadic, couple runs showed OBX hits while the Euro was OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Recon cant find a the center it looks like??? Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Not like that's shocking news, though. Also probably a good indicator Euro will hold serve. Doesn't the UKIE like to foreshadow the Euro sometimes? yes....Euro will hold serve and be OTS again...I should go to bed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Recon cant find a the center it looks like??? Weird. It's not at the center yet Notice how the winds die down and the pressure drops I guess another 10 minute wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No, it's been sporadic, couple runs showed OBX hits while the Euro was OTS. That's not what I meant. I mean in general terms. We see it sometimes in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That's not what I meant. I mean in general terms. We see it sometimes in winter. In the end, it doesn't mean anything in my opinion. I really want to see the 0z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Levi Cowan mentioned this a little bit ago on Twitter: 0Z GFS has large area of up to a millibar higher MSLP northeast of Joaquin tomorrow afternoon. Dropsondes helped. It's got a really healthy mid-level anticyclone with it. I don't think it's being influenced by the weakness to the east much at all. It wasn't necessarily supposed to be going anywhere yet but west is still winning in real world terms for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's not at the center yet Notice how the winds die down and the pressure drops I guess another 10 minute wait yup. guess its moving North now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Also the CONUS low is a cutoff which are often slow .. we see that all over the place. Not to mention hard to predict. tornadotony on Twitter was commenting how unusual SW moving storms are in the Atlantic and noting biases we see with them.. like Katrina of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Will have to wait for the center fix, but this may suggest that the center has edged north a bit. yep, NW movement it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 In the end, it doesn't mean anything in my opinion. I really want to see the 0z GEFS. I'll guess 11 GEFS US landfall members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownS.EasternVa Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Why isn't anyone paying attention to the invest in the Atlantic. The models are way off, invest should be heading north its flying to the east at 11 mph. It seems as though something is pushing its way between the invest and Hurricane J. With that being said the Bermuda High has trended stronger all summer its what forced Dennis and Erika west. Could the same dynamics be at work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Why isn't anyone paying attention to the invest in the Atlantic. The models are way off, invest should be heading north its flying to the east at 11 mph. It seems as though something is pushing its way between the invest and Hurricane J. With that being said the Bermuda High has trended stronger all summer its what forced Dennis and Erika west. Could the same dynamics be at work? It looked pretty amazing going into sunset and the outflow still looks superb for the most part. I guess it's cycling tho it's also pretty freaking deep at this point so it's hard to keep bombing at a certain point. But it's pumping warmth out of itself and aiding ridging on its edges. It could halt but it's far enough west now so any more west it goes makes it increasingly interesting once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownS.EasternVa Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And on top of that point the el nino make the Bermuda high stronger. The super el nino maybe flexing its muscle like it has all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No vortex yet but looks like it has accelerated a little to the WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 New recon fix has the center at 22.93N, 74.65W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Gefs west apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Gefs west apparently There looks to be two areas of LP. One near S NC, and one 200 miles off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like half of the individ ensembles make an EC LF from what I see of the 20 members on RaleighWx'S PAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Euro starting- anyone play by playing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Euro looks a bit north at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Not gonna do it this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 euro is a bit west through 60....but not some huge jump so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 EURO def made a nice jog west @ 69 hours, its not gonna do it this run, but def encouraging. Running out of time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 though 72 it's probably 75-100 miles west of were it was at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 @ 72 hours Joaquin is trying to partially phase with the ULL, probably too late though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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