weatherbo Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Overperforming...IND put an 80° on the board at 3:20. Sweet heat for late October. EDIT: Record for the day is 85° in 1947. Dang, it's only 40 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 One of the rare times that the ILN AFD had a decent discussion. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. ALOFT...THE FLOW PATTEN WILL BECOME PSEUDO-ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THIS IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP FROM SATURDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP BY 4-6 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...AND NORTH (SUNDAY) TO NORTHEAST (MONDAY) WINDS PROVIDING COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 If the 12Z GFS would verify, Flash Flooding would be real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Not much change on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Started a thread for next weeks system http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47095-october-27-29-rainywindy-system-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 One thing that might help Patricia is she is expected to become a coastal low off of the coast of Texas and then move inland again bringing up a bunch of moisture, it will likely be non tropical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 brrr.... 26 this morning 19 at doe lake in Alger county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Leaves really coming down now, 1st lawn raking is in order now. Color really popped within the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Picked up 0.27" of rain today. Now up to 1.04" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Liking the more frequent rains as of late. 0.38" of rain came down here. Still drizzling outside. Going to have to do some raking this weekend, once the leaves dry out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Feels like summer out there tonight with dews in the low 60s, and temps holding well above 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Total precip through November 9th on the 0Z GFS... nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 SPC placed the Detroit area and NW Ohio under a marginal risk for severe weather in their latest day 1 outlook. Was a bit surprised we weren't under one before. ...SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...NERN IND...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT WITH ANARROW PLUME OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODEST DIABATICHEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEAGER MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG. BUTDEEP SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS 500-MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND75 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THEFRONT SHOULD FORCE CONVECTION AROUND PEAK HEATING...WITH ELONGATEDHODOGRAPHS FAVORING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. WITHLIMITED INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GREATLY INTENSIFY.GIVEN THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A DELINEATION OFMARGINAL RISK FOR WIND/TORNADO APPEARS PRUDENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Looks like a nice fall system could be ramping up mid week across the Lakes. Definitely aided by the remnants of "Patricia". Breezy, wet, and raw all words I think will become synonymous going forward Not necessarily an OCT topic, but the first few days of NOV look interesting in the region based on tonight's EURO and GFS. Fantasyland GFS with another strong hurricane nailing the Baha California. Now the question is.... what will actually verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Thought I was going to watch a football game out in MSU today but might see some tornadoes instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Thought I was going to watch a football game out in MSU today but might see some tornadoes instead I had some forecaster from Wilmington Ohio come to the Ohio State Campus yesterday for a work shop. Though the probabilities are low, I was told if everything went perfect (for a weather person) we could have some exciting weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Some cool looking scuddy showers this morning along the frontal passage with strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I picked up another 0.62" over the last 24 hours, so my October total has gone from zero to 1.22" this week. When it wasn't raining yesterday, it was drizzling, and today is no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Buckets...some flash flooding in Naperville Heavy stuff only lasted a minute....but with all the leaves clogging drains...there are quite a few spots with standing water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 SPC placed the Detroit area and NW Ohio under a marginal risk for severe weather in their latest day 1 outlook. Was a bit surprised we weren't under one before. ...SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...NERN IND... BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW PLUME OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODEST DIABATIC HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEAGER MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG. BUT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS 500-MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 75 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD FORCE CONVECTION AROUND PEAK HEATING...WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GREATLY INTENSIFY. GIVEN THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A DELINEATION OF MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND/TORNADO APPEARS PRUDENT. This will probably yield something since I am going to Chicago today for the get together. Of course if it was a normal weekend where I was at home nothing would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I picked up another 0.62" over the last 24 hours, so my October total has gone from zero to 1.22" this week. When it wasn't raining yesterday, it was drizzling, and today is no different. In North Texas, the rain they received in the last 36 hours turned a top 10 driest October into a top 10 wet October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Nice wedge of clearing working its way in from the NW. Really mild out still. 50s underneath those low clouds to the west coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 nice soaker this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Storm development occurring near Chicago right now, could see a few damaging wind/a tornado report out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Line of Thunderstorms near Coldwater is picking up steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 41 and gusty out. A welcome .94" of rain. now I'm only 3" below since 9-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Leaves falling off like mad, front ready to roll through. Rain didn't amount to squat over the last 2 days. Monthly total still stands at 0.03" for the month. I really Hope Patricia remnants don't spoil this record breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Line just moved through. Mass leaf casualties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Wow, was surprised to be out working in the yard and hear thunder just now. Checked the radar and a razor thin line of thunderstorms is about to roll through. Made it to 71 IMBY and possibly a degree higher at DTW too, a nice overperformance. Got a decent soaking overnight as well, which makes for a great trifecta weather-wise in Detroit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Surprisingly torrential downpours with this convection overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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