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9/9/15 - 9/10/15 rain/t'storm potential


weatherwiz

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Computer forecast models swing a cold front slowly towards the region later this afternoon and evening before stalling the front right over southern New England tomorrow.  As the front stalls a wave or a few weak waves of low pressure are expected to develop along the front.  While instability/shear parameter vales are rather meh, enough instability will be present to run the risk for some t'storms and with a low probability for a marginal severe storm or two.  The biggest risk/potential, however, is heavy rains.  

 

There could be a couple periods of heavier rains around, all depending on how many waves of low pressure develop, where the front stalls, and how long the front sits overhead.  At this time, it's still a little difficult to pin down where the axis of heaviest rainfall totals will occur.  

 

Looking at the NAM/GFS it's possible the axis of heaviest rains could occur across northwestern CT into western and central MA and into southern NH.  Within this axis of rainfall as much as 2-3'' of rain can occur.  Maybe even an isolated higher amount depending on any convection.  

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