CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Just not coming together It is. There were two batches. The second one is near NYC. The key is to see how that interacts on north side of front. As I said to you before, it's mesoscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It is. There were two batches. The second one is near NYC. The key is to see how that interacts on north side of front. As I said to you before, it's mesoscale. .68, Nashua, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It is. There were two batches. The second one is near NYC. The key is to see how that interacts on north side of front. As I said to you before, it's mesoscale. I think that offshore convection is going to screw things up for SNE. The high res models have really backed off over the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I think that offshore convection is going to screw things up for SNE. The high res models have really backed off over the last few hours. Kudos to blizz24 on his original thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I think that offshore convection is going to screw things up for SNE. The high res models have really backed off over the last few hours. The stuff off NJ? I was thinking that stuff near NYC would either be a nice convergence band on west side of that little comma head, or just stagnant band of +RA moving north into SNE. We'll see how it goes this evening, I know some models were pretty aggressive later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 I think that offshore convection is going to screw things up for SNE. The high res models have really backed off over the last few hours. It seemed like the hi res models (well it didn't seem like...they did) really went bonkers today, however, guidance seems to have done a pretty solid job overall depicting the areas that would be hardest hit. Looked like western sections would get a good soak and eastern CT and points east. It almost seems like once you get within the event sometimes the hi-res models seem to go a little overboard and such...not sure if they take into account what's happened already or whatever but it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It seemed like the hi res models (well it didn't seem like...they did) really went bonkers today, however, guidance seems to have done a pretty solid job overall depicting the areas that would be hardest hit. Looked like western sections would get a good soak and eastern CT and points east. It almost seems like once you get within the event sometimes the hi-res models seem to go a little overboard and such...not sure if they take into account what's happened already or whatever but it's interesting. Some of the globals were way too deformation happy which tends to happen in warm seasons...and not enough respect for low level forcing which again happens with globals. I thought the GFS was guilty of that..euro too I guess. but yeah...the mesos were too QPF happy. That convection moving east off NJ isn't helping as Ryan alluded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 One more batch of showers for the region and then it's over . Sunny day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2015 Author Share Posted September 11, 2015 Some of the globals were way too deformation happy which tends to happen in warm seasons...and not enough respect for low level forcing which again happens with globals. I thought the GFS was guilty of that..euro too I guess. but yeah...the mesos were too QPF happy. That convection moving east off NJ isn't helping as Ryan alluded too. I definitely agree with that. You can see how the low level forcing was not really heavily favored by the models here. While some of the models did have like a second max in eastern areas (eastern CT/RI, etc)...the extent of it was pretty underdone and it was all b/c the low level forcing factor. Meanwhile, the models had the jackpots in western sections where the deform was taking too much into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2015 Author Share Posted September 11, 2015 One more batch of showers for the region and then it's over . Sunny day tomorrow Saturday night and Sunday actually look quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Saturday night and Sunday actually look quite interesting.Really? Seems mundane . Hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 The stuff off NJ? I was thinking that stuff near NYC would either be a nice convergence band on west side of that little comma head, or just stagnant band of +RA moving north into SNE. We'll see how it goes this evening, I know some models were pretty aggressive later on. I thought the same thing earlier but I think that convection east of ACY is interrupting moisture transport. That band moving through CT isn't really backbuilding or anything. FLying right through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Kudos to blizz24 on his original thoughts ?.98 here in CT USA where he said nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 BOX can take down the FFW now except maybe for the Cape. Hoping I can eek out an inch out of this .Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 BOX can take down the FFW now except maybe for the Cape. Hoping I can eek out an inch out of this .Ugh Glad we forecast 0.5"-1.5" with locally higher amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Glad we forecast 0.5"-1.5" with locally higher amounts!That covers all bases to be sure. .5 to as much as locally infinite higher. But you guys did well. You got me psyched with some of your tweets today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 That covers all bases to be sure. .5 to as much as locally infinite higher. But you guys did well. You got me psyched with some of your tweets today That's how it goes. You know they'll be a good band in a narrow area. Just where. Those amounts near GON are what you worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 0.00" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 0.00" so far T Just had a moisture boundary move through. Went from 65/65 and spitting -RA to 65/56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 T Just had a moisture boundary move through. Went from 65/65 and spitting -RA to 65/56. Same here... 65/57... feels a bit chilly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I thought the same thing earlier but I think that convection east of ACY is interrupting moisture transport. That band moving through CT isn't really backbuilding or anything. FLying right through. Wv and radar indicates that convection is moving north no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Wv and radar indicates that convection is moving north no? Toward RI/E Mass I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Toward RI/E Mass I think.nice embedded meso, they had a lot of rain this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It's been raining off and on all day. Around 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 a little more than an inch here.....4-5 inches to my south on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 .98 here in CT USA where he said nada .39 here so far. Looks like Hannahan nailed it with his .5-1.5 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 .39 here so far. Looks like Hannahan nailed it with his .5-1.5 call.depends where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It's been the s coast. Again. I thought they would do well , but second part really didn't do much most other areas. At least as I envisioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It's been the s coast. Again. I thought they would do well , but second part really didn't do much most other areas. At least as I envisioned.EMA might get croaked soon and that semi deform is looking better. Lol Tolland High 61 degrees wind NNE 21 with moderate rain . Shawl weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 NAM goes bonkers still for ENE tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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