packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Never trust the NAM with QPF.......unless it's showing the least. The 12km NAM has been quite useless with these past rain events, the 4km hasn't been to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The 12km NAM has been quite useless with these past rain events, the 4km hasn't been to bad. I bet we'll get less than half of what the GFS is showing in that map there. I like the map, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 GSP continues to ramp up the forecasted totals as we get nearer and nearer to the event: Interesting! Especially if you read their afternoon discussion !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I bet we'll get less than half of what the GFS is showing in that map there. I like the map, though!Have you been hanging with Brick, Marietta, or Snowblind2011??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Have you been hanging with Brick, Marietta, or Snowblind2011??? Trick or treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I bet we'll get less than half of what the GFS is showing in that map there. I like the map, though!I think there is a 3-4" swath somewhere, I agree with Lookout, up 85 corridor looks like best bet. I bet we are 1-2" where 2" is closer to NW Wake.Tomorrow night the NAM will already be rolling at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Unless gulf coast convection messes this up, someone from Atlanta to Raleigh will approach 5 inches of rain with this. If the gulf does mess it up, it may be less than 1 inch for some areas for most of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Unless gulf coast convection messes this up, someone from Atlanta to Raleigh will approach 5 inches of rain with this. If the gulf does mess it up, it may be less than 1 inch for some areas for most of that area. I'm loving the new Shetley optimism this season! And Pack, yeah I'll be glad when the time changes. I like more darkness early and more model data early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 00Z 4K NAM keeping it quite damp, but onset keeps moving back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 For the Raleigh area on the 11:00 news... WRAL --- 2-3". WNCN -- 1-1½" Guess the in-house models are speaking differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC 10 mins · We're expecting 2-3 inches of rain in Central NC today through Wednesday. Monday will be the wettest day. Street flooding is possible. Drive safely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Euro run was a Cold Rain special... ATL to GSP to CLT to RDU were all 5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Euro run was a Cold Rain special... ATL to GSP to CLT to RDU were all 5"+. That run is looking better for us. Just under 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 GSP ups the totals again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Euro run was a Cold Rain special... ATL to GSP to CLT to RDU were all 5"+. Man that's nice! Let's keep it going through the winter...just 40F colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The extreme "heat" wave that was going to be this week and sunny skies, seem to have been tempered alot! Welcome Godzilla Niño ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 The extreme "heat" wave that was going to be this week and sunny skies, seem to have been tempered alot! Welcome Godzilla Niño ! The heat wave here will be occurring at night with overnight lows 15-20 degrees above normal all week long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I have to say the GFS has been really consistent with this event, the Euro was to amp'd at day 3-4. Have to remember that for the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The heat wave here will be occurring at night with overnight lows 15-20 degrees above normal all week long.It's call cloud cover and limited diurnal range, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 UK goes nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 UK goes nuts... Keep us posted on the Euro later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Keep us posted on the Euro later! Euro ticked south, LOL...has the 3-5" band just south of Wake Co. Has your backyard in 3-4", Brick 1.5 and mby at 2". ATL is 5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Euro ticked south, LOL...has the 3-5" band just south of Wake Co. Has your backyard in 3-4", Brick 1.5 and mby at 2". ATL is 5"+. Haha! The infamous south trend. Riiiight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 12z Ni-res NAM. Looks about right with the radar returns currently. Currently getting shafted here really good. Only 0.05" so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Robert alluding to lots more rainfall on the way...after this current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 We have this now, and the AFD hints that this could be expanded later to cover the Charlotte Metro. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC251 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY....AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THEAREA THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL DEVELOP FROM AN UPPERLEVEL LOW MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMMOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THEAREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREADRAINFALL...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIAAND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>007-010>013-019-020400-/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.A.0002.151102T0000Z-151103T0000Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-GREENWOOD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...BALDWIN...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...ROYSTON...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...REED CREEK...ELBERTON...WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...NINE TIMES...PUMPKINTOWN...ROCKY BOTTOM...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...GOWENSVILLE...MARIETTA...TIGERVILLE...SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION...GREENWOOD251 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATESOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEASTGEORGIA...ELBERT...FRANKLIN...HABERSHAM...HART...RABUN ANDSTEPHENS. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...GREATER GREENVILLE...GREATER OCONEE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...GREENWOOD...LAURENS...OCONEEMOUNTAINS...PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SPARTANBURG AND UNION.* FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING* 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE DAY ONMONDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...THISADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SLOW RISES ALONG CREEKS ANDSTREAMS...AND EVEN SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 We're still in an overall warm pattern but we will need to watch day 7 or so to see how cold the air mass is behind this next weekends cold front. For those that have not received a freeze this could be your time. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=165ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_165_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151101+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Brick don't read wxsouth. If you struggle with week after week of Seattle weather your gonna need a psychologist the next 4 months. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Brick don't read wxsouth. If you struggle with week after week of Seattle weather your gonna need a psychologist the next 4 months. Enjoy The Nino ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Brick don't read wxsouth. If you struggle with week after week of Seattle weather your gonna need a psychologist the next 4 months. EnjoyA good wedge kicks the SE ridges butt, everytime! The death ridge has taken an atomic chop, and now a freeze is possible next weekend, for those who have not seen one ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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