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The Last Days Of Summer: September 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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Yes. It was a memorable period. As noted previously, the Wunderground figures sometimes differ from the daily climate reports.

NWS uses EST even though we are still on Daylight savings. Wunderground is just based on the usual midnight. It was 81 at midnight, but 79 by 1am. Streak ends by the slimiest of margins both in temp and time.

 

 

LGA ends too with a high of 79. However Newark streak lives to see another day.

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NWS uses EST even though we are still on Daylight savings. Wunderground is just based on the usual midnight. It was 81 at midnight, but 79 by 1am. Streak ends by the slimiest of margins both in temp and time.

 

 

LGA ends too with a high of 79. However Newark streak lives to see another day.

So even though it was 80° at midnight it doesn't count because of Daylight Savings Time? I never knew they took that into consideration.

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You know you are in a warm pattern when NYC still finishes the day at +5 with clouds and thunderstorms dominating the day. Probably the warmest September 1-10th for NYC at +8.9.

Sun-Mon will be our best shot at AOB normal temps before the next warm surge. Whatever drops occur in the departures the next few days will sure to go up again.

What is the warmest September on record though and how do we stand currently at NYC?

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Sun-Mon will be our best shot at AOB normal temps before the next warm surge. Whatever drops occur in the departures the next few days will sure to go up again.

What is the warmest September on record though and how do we stand currently at NYC?

Sept. 1961 is the warmest at +6.1 above the current normal for month.   We already tied the record number of 90 deg. days for the month at 6.   In 1961 some of the 6 came late in month.

 

I just looked at a site that has old records and I found 8  90deg. days in 1961, CPK, not 6.

 

1961,9,1 94

1961,9,2 95

1961,9,3 88

1961,9,4 94

1961,9,5 93

1961,9,6 88

1961,9,7 78

1961,9,8 79

1961,9,9 87

1961,9,10 92

1961,9,11 92

1961,9,12 94

1961,9,13 88

1961,9,14 87

1961,9,15 76

1961,9,16 72

1961,9,17 70

1961,9,18 71

1961,9,19 67

1961,9,20 72

1961,9,21 72

1961,9,22 88

1961,9,23 90

1961,9,24 87

1961,9,25 81

1961,9,26 78

1961,9,27 78

1961,9,28 81

1961,9,29 69

1961,9,30 73

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Sept. 1961 is the warmest at +6.1 above the current normal for month. We already tied the record number of 90 deg. days for the month at 6. In 1961 some of the 6 came late in month.

It's early but given the pattern I'd say there's a chance for us to get close to that year. Next week will be interesting, I think there's a shot at 1-2 more 90+ days.

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Sun-Mon will be our best shot at AOB normal temps before the next warm surge. Whatever drops occur in the departures the next few days will sure to go up again.

What is the warmest September on record though and how do we stand currently at NYC?

 

The interesting thing about average September 10-20th for NYC is that just reaching 80 degrees is still a +3 to +5 high.

All NYC needs to finish top ten warmest Septembers is to hold onto a +3.1 or greater through the end

of the month.

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The interesting thing about average September 10-20th for NYC is that just reaching 80 degrees is still a +3 to +5 high.

All NYC needs to finish top ten warmest Septembers is to hold onto a +3.1 or greater through the end

of the month.

8 consecutive 80 degree days are possible Sept. 15-22 before an 850mb. crash to 0C!   Will run at a ridiculous 15C for a week supposedly.

BTW:  The CFSv2 weeklies show nothing but microwave warmth for the next 5 weeks as 500mb pattern is continuously above normal.   But the 06Z OP looks like it wants to show the first cold air invasion of season by end of period.   

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Revised due to the 1:01 (12:02 ST)  79 degree update.  NYC ends the remarkable streak (arguably a technicality) but overall season 80s still in play.

 

NYC   80 (+) days and 70 of 73 (7/4: 75, 7/9: 79, 9/9: 79)

 

EWR 68 straight 80 (+) days and 72 of 73

 

1. 62 (7/10-9/9/2015)

2. 59 (6/26-8/23/1944)

3. 41 (7/8-8/17/1943 and 7/4-8/13/2011)

4. 40 (6/20-7/29/1966)

 

 

NYC 80 (+) Days 2015
 
April: 1
May: 18
Jun: 16
Jul: 29
Aug:  31 
Sep: 9
 
 

Top 5 for Central Park:

 

1. 108, 1944

2. 106, 1991

3. 104, 1959

4. 100, 1949 and 2005

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**unless updated otherwise the temp at the park was 70 at 12:51 AM then 69 at 1:51 so we'll see if it dropped to 69 at 1:00 (12 EST), but we'll need to wait till 4:30PM for that info incredibly inefficient way of distributing data.**  But assuming it stayed at 70 here is the 70 plus minimum tally.

 

Courtesy of Uncle

NYC has 54 days with a minimum 70 or higher...the record is 61 set in 1906...

61 in 1906

60 in 2005

55 in 2015 (and counting)

54 in 1908

 

52 in 1980

51 in 2013

47 in 2012

46 in 1876

46 in 1959

 

&70(+) min by month (2015)

 

May: 3

Jun: 6

Jul: 19  (6 69's)

Aug:  19 (3 69's) 

Sep: 8

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Back to the sunshine and great weather.  NYC will add on some 80s for season total record.

 

EWR should continue the 80s streak.  SUN/MON wil likely end the Newark stretch before warmth returns next week (tue 9/15)

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

Yeah, the GFS doesn't signal a significant cooldown for another two weeks. Until then, it looks to be fairly comfortable.

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Of the last 90 days at LaG, the mean temperature has been above normal 66 times, below normal 19 times and just normal 5 times.    In just the last 30 there has been just 1 below day and 1 normal day,  ie. 28 days have been above normal!  Of the next 15 days, I would expect 3 below normal days and the rest above normal---if a cold shot actually makes it here around the 24-26th. period.

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Max. Temps. for CPK in Sept. 1961:

 

1961,9,1 94
1961,9,2 95
1961,9,3 88
1961,9,4 94
1961,9,5 93
1961,9,6 88
1961,9,7 78
1961,9,8 79
1961,9,9 87
1961,9,10 92
1961,9,11 92
1961,9,12 94
1961,9,13 88
1961,9,14 87
1961,9,15 76
1961,9,16 72
1961,9,17 70
1961,9,18 71
1961,9,19 67
1961,9,20 72
1961,9,21 72
1961,9,22 88
1961,9,23 90
1961,9,24 87
1961,9,25 81
1961,9,26 78
1961,9,27 78
1961,9,28 81
1961,9,29 69
1961,9,30 73

Looks like there were 8  90deg. days and not 6 like I thought.

Labor Day was on the 4th. that Sept.
 

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