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PSUBlizzicane2007

Tropical Storm Erika

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Maybe I am missing something but I don't see a ton of dry air around. The SAL out ahead of it continues to slide West in tandem with Erika. Also, I think a majority of the models are indicating interaction with the islands more than anything else. Shear doesn't appear to be a problem moving forward unless again I am missing something.

 

 

Shear was analyzed at 6.9m/s or 13 knots as of 18z...the ULAC is displaced to the SW and producing moderate shear which is why we have the presentation that we have now. Also, "dry air" isn't just what you see on a WV loop. It can be stability, which can clearly be seen on the OLR anomaly maps 

 

 

 

ScreenHunter_191%20Aug.%2025%2016.11.png

 

Globe_7D.gif

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I guess nobody sees this as a red flag? GFS OP is a major outlier to the ensembles. 

 

 

 

What really had my attention earlier was the euro and the blocking high. That seems to have been a fleeting solution.

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Erika's dead or close to death. Convection over the past day or so has not succeeded in covering the dominant low-level center, and Erika is entering a more stable and sheared environment nearby. Pulsating convection can only get a weak system so far, and I've already outlined the obstacles to regeneration after day three. I'd say Danny 2.0 or maybe the ghost of Debby 2000--another system forecast to pose a possible hurricane threat to South FL that encountered shear and struck Hispaniola instead.

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 252045
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,
Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection
near and to the south of the center. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and
this is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.
Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle
of the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has
been ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previous
forecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future
intensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates
increasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the
GFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the
forecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening,
however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance.
The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the
previous one and is close to the model consensus.

A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues
to be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of
Erika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the
next several days. Late in the forecast period, there is
significant spread in the models, with those models that depict a
weaker system being farther south and west and those having a
stronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one
and is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus.

Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the
northeastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the
next advisory package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

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Erika's dead or close to death. Convection over the past day or so has not succeeded in covering the dominant low-level center, and Erika is entering a more stable and sheared environment nearby. Pulsating convection can only get a weak system so far, and I've already outlined the obstacles to regeneration after day three. I'd say Danny 2.0 or maybe the ghost of Debby 2000--another system forecast to pose a possible hurricane threat to South FL that encountered shear and struck Hispaniola instead.

You remind me of Bagdad Bob who always insisted the US Army was no where near Bagdad as a tank drove behind him.

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This is the first real threat to South Florida in years. A lot could change, but the NHC forecast is currently the perfect scenario for a Cape Verde hurricane near Miami. If their current track is accurate it would rapidly intensify into  major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf Stream.

 

We will know by Friday if this is a real threat for South Florida. It could hit Hispaniola, get sheared apart, or strengthen too early and recurve like the Euro says. We shall see. In any case I am excited.

 

I will be stocking up on supplies tomorrow if this current NHC scenario holds.

 

CNSHc5lUwAAYUbK.png

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This is the first real threat to South Florida in years. A lot could change, but the NHC forecast is currently the perfect scenario for a Cape Verde hurricane near Miami. If their current track is accurate it would rapidly intensify into major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf Stream.

We will know by Friday if this is a real threat for South Florida. It could hit Hispaniola, get sheared apart, or strengthen too early and recurve like the Euro says. We shall see. In any case I am excited.

I will be stocking up on supplies tomorrow if this current NHC scenario holds.

CNSHc5lUwAAYUbK.png

I would add a 4th option. Erika holds its own but never really strengthens and hits Florida as a mid range storm. Personally I'd go with a weak sheared system eats Hispaniola

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This is the first real threat to South Florida in years. A lot could change, but the NHC forecast is currently the perfect scenario for a Cape Verde hurricane near Miami. If their current track is accurate it would rapidly intensify into  major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf Stream.

 

We will know by Friday if this is a real threat for South Florida. It could hit Hispaniola, get sheared apart, or strengthen too early and recurve like the Euro says. We shall see. In any case I am excited.

 

I will be stocking up on supplies tomorrow if this current NHC scenario holds.

 

CNSHc5lUwAAYUbK.png

 

 

I'm trying to hold my excitement in check.  Never good to be in the middle of the cone 5-6 days out with Hispanolia also being a player.  There is a lot that can go wrong yet but nevertheless I am intrigued.

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Models are tightly clustered north of Hispaniola for now, if it's passing just north of Hispaniola Friday then we are in trouble. I don't think there will be any recurve.

 

CNSWa9QUcAENy7a.png

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Models are tightly clustered north of Hispaniola for now, if it's passing just north of Hispaniola Friday then we are in trouble. I don't think there will be any recurve.

 

 

op gfs has been much further south than the ensembles, which may be why it is showing an open wave thru 120hrs.

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The gfs is notoriously bad for tropical cyclone forecasting. Don't look at erikas projection, instead look at the large scale systems which determine steering.

It's fairly clear at this point Erika won't recurve, biggest and most crucial factor is whether it interacts with Hispaniola or passes well to the north. We will know Friday, maybe even by Thursday

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The gfs is notoriously bad for tropical cyclone forecasting. Don't look at erikas projection, instead look at the large scale systems which determine steering.

It's fairly clear at this point Erika won't recurve, biggest and most crucial factor is whether it interacts with Hispaniola or passes well to the north. We will know Friday, maybe even by Thursday

Say what now? The deterministic gfs has had the lowest or second lowest mean track error in the Atlantic basin for lead times out to five days for the the past 6+ years now. The gfs and ecmwf have been trading first place (statistically tied) back and forth for a while.

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People need to get a grip, this isn't anything more than something to watch at this point. Board wide there is a hysteria that really needs to get checked as its frankly embarrassing. Ericka is a piece of crap right now and has a tough road ahead.

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People need to get a grip, this isn't anything more than something to watch at this point. Board wide there is a hysteria that really needs to get checked as its frankly embarrassing. Ericka is a piece of crap right now and has a tough road ahead.

seriously? nhc has a cane off the coast of south fl @ day 5...over warm waters/low shear/minimal dry air.  fact is if the nhc track verifies we are looking at a deepening cyclone off the us coast.  you cant wait until 24-48 hrs out to tell folks to prepare for a possible storm.

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People need to get a grip, this isn't anything more than something to watch at this point. Board wide there is a hysteria that really needs to get checked as its frankly embarrassing. Ericka is a piece of crap right now and has a tough road ahead.

Well said, thanks.  But it is interesting to see mets disagree and that is what learning is all about.

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They are absolute garbage for tropical cyclone forecasting, period.

Baseless claims are frowned upon TH. Present your facts or keep this type of comments to yourself please.

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Baseless claims are frowned upon TH. Present your facts or keep this type of comments to yourself please.

I'll say it again, global models are GARBAGE for tropical cyclone forecasts. They are extremely innacurate since they cannot even resolve the structure of the tropical cyclone due to low resolution, and there's not enough data to initialize them even if they had enough resolution. Using the projection of a tropical cyclone in a global model is incredibly foolish, and anyone with tropical cyclone forecasting experience knows this.

 

Deleting such comments because you "frown on them" is over moderation. Americanwx never used to be communist like that, so I don't accept it.

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GFDL shows Erika turning northward around 120 hours, which makes no sense given the high pressure system that will be in place over the Eastern U.S. This is the time of year where there's barely any mid-latitude troughs interacting with the sub-tropics, so I'm fairly sure we will not be seeing a northerly turn before crossing 80 west. Models have a tendency to over-amplify mid-latitude troughs in the medium to long range this time of year, which might explain the GFDL behavior.

 

729d2eaf6aba3b70f48e7fa5a4e5a457.png

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I'll say it again, global models are GARBAGE for tropical cyclone forecasts. They are extremely innacurate since they cannot even resolve the structure of the tropical cyclone due to low resolution, and there's not enough data to initialize them even if they had enough resolution. Using the projection of a tropical cyclone in a global model is incredibly foolish, and anyone with tropical cyclone forecasting experience knows this.

 

Deleting such comments because you "frown on them" is over moderation. Americanwx never used to be communist like that, so I don't accept it.

Stats tell otherwise, present your facts, otherwise I'll think you are pulling this out your arse, which wouldn't be a first.

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00z SHIPS and LGEM no longwe bring Erika to Hurricane status for the first time since they've been run on the system. The conditions based on the 00z OFPI track look rather hostile with shear peaking to a hefty 23 knots and doesn't relax through day 5. Right now I'd lean towards Erika not surviving the next 48 hours and eventually getting caught up with the Greater Antilles...basically suffering a similar fate as Danny. 

 

Certainly nothing to get bent out of shape about, especially since this could very easily degenerate if it does not maintain convection during the next two days. 

 

GOES01152015238FVECM1.jpg

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One thing that needs to be watched is that GFS and now the Euro has Erica moving into shear and mountains the entire track until it exits Cuba. A awful turn of events for the models, but all solutions needs to be considered.  

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Yeah I'm not exactly sure I agree TH. The GFS and EC are pretty valuable. The GFS as DTK noted, has done pretty well. Everyone has to flush out the Sandy bullsh*t. I remember (I believe earlier that year) when the euro took Debbie as a hurricane into Galveston while the GFS took it harmlessly into the FL panhandle a few days out. EC did not win that one.

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00z SHIPS and LGEM no longwe bring Erika to Hurricane status for the first time since they've been run on the system. The conditions based on the 00z OFPI track look rather hostile with shear peaking to a hefty 23 knots and doesn't relax through day 5. Right now I'd lean towards Erika not surviving the next 48 hours and eventually getting caught up with the Greater Antilles...basically suffering a similar fate as Danny. 

 

Certainly nothing to get bent out of shape about, especially since this could very easily degenerate if it does not maintain convection during the next two days. 

 

 

I have no idea where that shear is coming from. I think it's from the Pacific, but i'm not sure. Sounds suspect. 

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