Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I was just looping NWS' base reflectivity from Key West and noticing that there is some semblance of counter-clockwise rotation through the x-y axial symmetry there, situated perhaps west of the western most isle by a little. Muah hahaha, not to far from the famed "loop current" actually. Right now deeper layer tropospheric shear considerations are not good, but are modeled to improve over the next 36 hours, as this fragmented remnant of utterly unidentifiable Erika's remains moves slowly NW.. Code for, should something evolve ribosomatically from the obliterated DNA of her cyclonic ghost ... I suppose it would have to come along with a uniquely new identification and name? These are interesting circumstances when you have pallid TCs that dip below and above discernment ... what is the actual protocol for "recognition" in these cases? I don't actually know 'how' TPC decides whether to recognize a patient perhaps merely coming out of a coma after a near death experience ... -vs- a Hindu rebirth. I kind of like the latter; it adds a spirituality and perhaps substantiates a fraction of this whole weather obsession. Seriously, there is that rotation noted.. But hey, since no model (I have seen) does anything anew, given their collective track-record to date regarding any quanta of thermodynamic with this overall mass of atmosphere as it's trundled into the area over the last several days, somewhere in that cloudy scoring there is a gust of poetic resolution for this thing to go on to Category 4ness and slam into New Orleans' hubris about resiliency in the aftermath of lore. 'We will surv ...ummm' Fairly robust upper level circulation has closed off over the TV and currently substends a trough and/or shear axis into the central Golf of Mexico. That is imparting S shear over the area in question. A circumstance that is modeled to weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours. Given to the uber octane fuel available, any on-going festering desire to redeem Erika would certainly not take long to tap into that should the deeper layer flow structure abruptly become more favorable. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 There is a pretty well defined circulation now showing up on radar just West of key West. I would assume that this is the presumed center. In any event, deep convection continues to build nearbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Another round of torrential rains moving through Southeast Florida, wetter than many real tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 So this is not completely dead as most stated it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Another round of torrential rains moving through Southeast Florida, wetter than many real tropical storms. and a comfortable dewpoint of 81 at FLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 So this is not completely dead as most stated it was? It was definitely appropriate for the NHC to downgrade, it probably degenerated 12+ hours before the last advisory. The interaction between Erika's remnants and an unusually strong summertime frontal system has produced a heavy rain event just as formidable as a tropical storm, with plenty of high winds and TONS of lightning (I have some videos to upload). The entire region from the northwest Caribbean to Florida is now bubbling with convection and widespread heavy precipitation. Broad rotation is evident centered on the Florida Keys and convection has been firing across it all day. Looks like too much shear along the front for it to organize though, so this will likely remain a hybrid extreme rain event and not become a TC again. Last night we possibly had a micro TC hit the Florida Keys and southernmost Florida but that was ripped apart overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 3-5" of rain and minor street flooding over three days do not represent an extreme rain event outside saturated areas. Maybe the lack of strong landfalls makes people exaggerate anything that nears land. The really extreme rainfall occurred over Dominica and Hispaniola, with unfortunate, deadly results... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Half a foot of rain in parts of southeast Florida according to cocorahs, I'm in the axis of highest totals, it stretches from north to south across the western suburbs, and it's not even close to done. I wonder if we will see more insane convection and lightning when diurnal max hits tonight. Takes alot more rain than that to cause real issues though. And we were in an extreme drought so this is actually a godsend, might bust the drought single handedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Ericka Coming back to Life ? I heard on the news futurecast shows this spinning back up again. You can see a faint twist starting west of Tampa. Check out the RPM Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 You can see a bit of rotation on the visible as well. Almost looks like it is moving wsw http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Gulf_Mexico-vis-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Too weak and broad of a rotation, my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Are these Erika remnants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Yes! The low is shown on the surface map as the remnants and the Tampa NWS talks about it in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I wonder if NHC will upgrade it at the 5pm update ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 It does look like we have a closed circulation. And radar does seem to indicate well defined rotation. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes I could see a case being made for this being a depression currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I thought it was moving NE but looking at radar seems to be moving WNW. Would it have time to develop if were to move more west than north? NHC gave it a 0% chance. Egg on their face if they should ramp up to TS before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I thought it was moving NE but looking at radar seems to be moving WNW. Would it have time to develop if were to move more west than north? NHC gave it a 0% chance. Egg on their face if they should ramp up to TS before landfall. Looks like the egg is on your face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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