Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tropical Storm Erika


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 826
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Currently analyzed at 10m/s or roughly 20 knots...and not weakening any time soon. Look at the SHIPS text file...or really anything. 

 

 

You're looking at it real time and not trends. The shear to the north is weakening. Remember the image above is at at a exact time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're looking at it real time and not trends. The shear to the north is weakening. Remember the image above it at at a exact time.

Not really true, the tendency maps show fluctuations that already occurred, look at current of forecasted shear maps to get a more accurate depiction.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest estimates up to 45kts

 

2015AUG26 134500  2.9 1002.8  43.0  2.9 3.0 3.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  -64.56 -58.61  UNIFRM   N/A   -3.9   16.11   57.27  FCST   GOES13 27.8
2015AUG26 141500  2.9 1002.8  43.0  2.9 3.0 3.0  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  -62.56 -57.30  UNIFRM   N/A   -3.9   16.10   57.40  FCST   GOES13 27.7
2015AUG26 144500  3.0 1001.5  45.0  3.0 3.3 3.4  0.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -55.46 -55.05  IRRCDO   N/A   -3.9   16.10   57.53  FCST   GOES13 27.5
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is it that you must continue to focus on the negativity? :deadhorse:

We all know this has a long road ahead but you can not ignore recent model trends.

 

Negative? Probably because it matches exactly what we're seeing right now with regards to the displaced circulation, thus the initialization for this run is actually extremely accurate. Terribly sorry if facts come across as negativity...

Sent from my SM-G925V 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Negative? Probably because it matches exactly what we're seeing right now with regards to the displaced circulation, thus the initialization for this run is actually extremely accurate. Terribly sorry if facts come across as negativity...

Sent from my SM-G925V

Until this thing wants to stack better I think a less than positive outlook is warranted. I've seen this show before, sometimes these things never stack properly. As I said last night this storm is in ugly shape, the optimism for this system doesn't have much support ATM.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until this thing wants to stack better I think a less than positive outlook is warranted. I've seen this show before, sometimes these things never stack properly. As I said last night this storm is in ugly shape, the optimism for this system doesn't have much support ATM.

no model, nor anyone expects erika to vastly improve in organization/strength today or tomorrow.  literally every model shows an unorganized mess until it passes north of hispaniola.  the optimism comes from the ideal conditions waiting for the storm in the bahamas, not from storms popping south of the coc.  it is pretty simple.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until this thing wants to stack better I think a less than positive outlook is warranted. I've seen this show before, sometimes these things never stack properly. As I said last night this storm is in ugly shape, the optimism for this system doesn't have much support ATM.

Yeah if you mean in the short term then there is not much support for optimism. But as of the 12z runs (barring Euro changes), literally every model deepens this as it reaches the Bahamas. I think that's good support.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah if you mean in the short term then there is not much support for optimism. But as of the 12z runs (barring Euro changes), literally every model deepens this as it reaches the Bahamas. I think that's good support.

And if there's one thing I've learned from this board for 5 years is when there's good model consensus, they're typically right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...