Jon Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 New IRI is out...and it's disappointing for temps but precip looks good... Average temps, above average precip for the winter basically. Temps: DJF JFM FMA Precip: disco: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2015/nov2015/text/NAmerica.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Bob, I agree with this, but it's a little misleading in a sense. You don't actually need -10F temperatures aloft (850) in the heart of winter to cash in; where daytime heating is not a factor. A more reasonable comparison would be what sfc temperature below average on a typical CLOUDY winter day do you need? Our average daily temperature is impacted greatly by daytime thermal heating at lower levels, which would have far less impact in the instance of a nearby low pressure (and cloud cover) A typical cloudy winter day in our area has a high temperature of what, like 35-36 degrees? Absolutley. I shouldn't have been surface focused in my response. A heck of a lot more goes into it than that. On a whole different topic...marginal temps @ 925-850-700mb have caused me more pain than I care to remember....ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Early on,looks like a west QBO with solar min this year.Solar is declining as expected we might get a month below 100 on solar flux soon. West QBO and solar min isn't a terrible match just a weaker flatter ridge south of us.Canada and the upper midwest is pretty cold but not much NAO all the ridging is closer to the UK.I'm guessing a PV somewhere in Canada probably. We'll see if the El Nino can overcome it. I'll stick with this. Solar flux is still low,(105.2 for 90 days)and more ridging off the Cali coast.The upper southeast might be in the battleground some this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Absolutley. I shouldn't have been surface focused in my response. A heck of a lot more goes into it than that. On a whole different topic...marginal temps @ 925-850-700mb have caused me more pain than I care to remember....ack Yeah the most feared term in all winter weather chances the dreaded warm nose..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 December canonical nino FTW....or FTL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Weeklies essentially are following the +QBO Dec composite, cooler/colder in SW, including TX. #JammingJanuary http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46672-winter-15-16-discussion/page-40#entry3752954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Jon, The iri model? Seriously? When we have the pioneer model? Come on man! It's pioneer all the way baby. Tha heck coming in here with that weak iri mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Weeklies essentially are following the +QBO Dec composite, cooler/colder in SW, including TX. #JammingJanuary http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46672-winter-15-16-discussion/page-40#entry3752954 Things might be looking better for you all by late month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Things might be looking better for you all by late month?Dec's always suck for us no matter what, so anything in Jan at this point would be a bonus. It's going to be a test of patience at this point to make it to Feb. I think our mountains can do well in Dec and into Jan. You guys should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Dec's always suck for us no matter what, so anything in Jan at this point would be a bonus. It's going to be a test of patience at this point to make it to Feb. I think our mountains can do well in Dec and into Jan. You guys should do well. Not sure, worried it may be south of my area. I think New Mexico and west Texas is probably going to cash in a lot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Jon, The iri model? Seriously? When we have the pioneer model? Come on man! It's pioneer all the way baby. Tha heck coming in here with that weak iri mess! Jon posts "mess" but by gawd, he's usually spot on. He gives us parameters and things to consider ... and its always good! IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Where can you get the parallel GFS for free? None that I know of, WB has it and americanwx has it. In the back of my mind I seem to recall that Dec is when the new go time is for the "P-GEFS". December 2nd the GEFS upgrades to a 0.5 deg resolution. I thought the parallel GFS (T1534) was fully implemented and live (the GFS right now, aka 13km GFS)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 December 2nd the GEFS upgrades to a 0.5 deg resolution. I thought the parallel GFS (T1534) was fully implemented and live (the GFS right now, aka 13km GFS)? Good question, I am not sure either except there is a new GEFS about to get rolled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Good question, I am not sure either except there is a new GEFS about to get rolled out. I'm 99.9% sure the GFS everywhere is the T1534 it just doesn't say it anymore. The GEFS upgrade on Dec 2nd is already rolling (parallel) at weatherbell...it's the GEFS T574. Additionally the Euro EPS upgrade coming March 6th to 9km for the operational and 18km for the EPS should be availble on weatherbell in early December... So there's a possibility of weatherbell subscribers being able to use a blend of the two upgraded GFS+Euro ensembles as a single model, Maue plans on providing blended forecasts e.g. 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day averaged temperature anomalies. I'm interested to see that product when he rolls it out, hopefully in time for Jan-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm 99.9% sure the GFS everywhere is the T1534 it just doesn't say it anymore. The GEFS upgrade on Dec 2nd is already rolling (parallel) at weatherbell...it's the GEFS T574. Additionally the Euro EPS upgrade coming March 6th to 9km for the operational and 18km for the EPS should be availble on weatherbell in early December... So there's a possibility of weatherbell subscribers being able to use a blend of the two upgraded GFS+Euro ensembles as a single model, Maue plans on providing blended forecasts e.g. 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day averaged temperature anomalies. I'm interested to see that product when he rolls it out, hopefully in time for Jan-Feb. I didn't know about the new euro coming to WB in Dec, that would be nice! Americanwx has the new GEFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Jon posts "mess" but by gawd, he's usually spot on. He gives us parameters and things to consider ... and its always good! IMHO Ha yeah I know. I'm just playing. Warm model forecasts should be banned though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just hope something like that sets up but with cold enough air in front and real cold air behind happens sometime(s) during this Nino winter - no T'nado and w/ frozen precip to the Gulf~ You and me, brother! There hasn't been a good snow storm in Gainesville in a while. Get the deep deep super cads pushing way on down, and lots of gulf tap rain....I can see it. Split flow, and a huge block....I can see it O line in Cuba...I Can See It!!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 You and me, brother! There hasn't been a good snow storm in Gainesville in a while. Get the deep deep super cads pushing way on down, and lots of gulf tap rain....I can see it. Split flow, and a huge block....I can see it O line in Cuba...I Can See It!!! T Not a good one since 1899 or so; decent little thing in 1989 but that was more ice than snow -- Holy crap, Lucy - that's 100 years .... Crystal ball is nice ..... (got any 100 year pills?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Let's see if the CFS can get us a little colder over the next week or so for Dec. Would be fun to have a Nov that is +5 followed by a Dec thats +4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Let's see if the CFS can get us a little colder over the next week or so for Dec. Would be fun to have a Nov that is +5 followed by a Dec thats +4 or so.These two months are suppose to torch ! That makes way for Jammin January and Fab Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 These two months are suppose to torch ! That makes way for Jammin January and Fab Feb! Absolutely, what could possibly go wrong. On my way now to get a new snow shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Cohen's 30 day forecast. Interesting. Would love to see some SSW events to go with STJ. Would be fun and games for someone. 30–dayAs we have shown in our research the favored high latitude atmospheric pattern in November that follows above normal October Eurasian snow cover extent is the expansion of the Siberian high across northwest Asia with low pressure to the east near the Aleutians and a secondary area of low pressure in the northern North Atlantic; a pattern that we refer to as the tripole pattern (Cohen and Jones (2012)). The current atmospheric pattern strongly projects onto this pattern. This same pattern also favors the increase in wave activity flux or the vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the month of December. At AER we have developed a polar vortex model that predicts the strength of the polar vortex one month in advance. It is predicting a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in mid-December. We currently feel that this forecast is unlikely because the model is overly sensitive to SSW and has many false positives and because a major SSW is relatively rare in December. Still given the polar vortex model forecast and strong projection of the current atmospheric pattern onto the tripole pattern, we are more confident in increased wave activity flux in December that will result in weakening of the polar vortex in December and likely continuing into January. Also because the current dominant high latitude circulation is a wave two pattern, this would favor a polar vortex split relative to a polar vortex displacement in the event of a significant weakening of the polar vortex. One inhibiting background factor is the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that favors a strong vortex over a weak vortex. But if our expectations of a weakened polar vortex verify, this will likely favor an increased likelihood of severe winter weather across the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Of course all of this is highly speculative but the purpose of this blog is to push the boundaries of what is possible in weather forecasting beyond the skillful range of the weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not a good one since 1899 or so; decent little thing in 1989 but that was more ice than snow -- Holy crap, Lucy - that's 100 years .... Crystal ball is nice ..... (got any 100 year pills?) Well, to get a 100 year storm, 100 years must pass. You've completed the task set before you. Now it's time to sit back and let the goodness overwhelm you. Got any hills in Gainesville? Don't remember any....and you are gonna need 'em, lol. Cross polar jet, buckets of rain...100 year snow storm again!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not a good one since 1899 or so; decent little thing in 1989 but that was more ice than snow -- Holy crap, Lucy - that's 100 years .... Crystal ball is nice ..... (got any 100 year pills?) I don't know what the deal is in Gainesville. Areas of similar latitude such as Houston and San Antonio have definitely had more snow than you since 1899. I guess God just hates Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I don't know what the deal is in Gainesville. Areas of similar latitude such as Houston and San Antonio have definitely had more snow than you since 1899. I guess God just hates Florida. It probably has to do with the fact that Houston and San Antonio aren't sandwiched between two warm bodies of water, like non-panhandle Florida is. It's a different geography, and by extension climate, which impacts the weather they experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It probably has to do with the fact that Houston and San Antonio aren't sandwiched between two warm bodies of water, like non-panhandle Florida is. It's a different geography, and by extension climate, which impacts the weather they experience. Well heck even the FL panhandle gets less snow than areas further west. I'm pretty sure Austin gets a good bit more snow than Tallahassee. I realize Austin is about 200 feet higher in elevation but that can't be the only factor. Jacksonville hardly ever gets snow. I think they haven't had accumulating snow in 26 years. Up north there doesn't seem to be as big of a difference in snowfall as you head from west to east. But in the southern part of the country it seems like the further west you are the better chance of you getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well, to get a 100 year storm, 100 years must pass. You've completed the task set before you. Now it's time to sit back and let the goodness overwhelm you. Got any hills in Gainesville? Don't remember any....and you are gonna need 'em, lol. Cross polar jet, buckets of rain...100 year snow storm again!! Tony Plenty of hills; just no snow (even though we are really not sandwiched between two bodies of water; we can get and stay plenty cold and the little frozen precip we do occasionally get comes from the northwest and there isn't much water in that direction!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well, to get a 100 year storm, 100 years must pass. You've completed the task set before you. Now it's time to sit back and let the goodness overwhelm you. Got any hills in Gainesville? Don't remember any....and you are gonna need 'em, lol. Cross polar jet, buckets of rain...100 year snow storm again!! Tony He lives in the wrong Gainesville! Plenty of hills up here in the Gainesville in GA. And he'd get to enjoy CAD winter storms at their finest! Gainesville, GA is basically the heart of CAD in GA. Move on up. We'd welcome ya with open arms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 He lives in the wrong Gainesville! Plenty of hills up here in the Gainesville in GA. And he'd get to enjoy CAD winter storms at their finest! Gainesville, GA is basically the heart of CAD in GA. Move on up. We'd welcome ya with open arms! I prefer Blairsville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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