packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 If the weeklies are accurate it will be snowy for the mountains in Dec. Should be enough cold and it looks very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 If the weeklies are accurate it will be snowy for the mountains in Dec. Should be enough cold and it looks very active. For the North GA Mnts too? Does it show storminess (severe possibilities) or just lots of systems/rain for non-mountainous areas? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 For the North GA Mnts too? Does it show storminess (severe possibilities) or just lots of systems/rain for non-mountainous areas? Thanks Well the pattern should be good enough....-epo/+pna perking up with trough in the southern plains sneaking east. Looks like shots of cold/precip, must be good for elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Roller skating pandas are the best! I hope you get lots of sleet this year, sir! CR, my fine sir, many thanks for the sleet greets! The Brazilians have much to be famous for...waxes, wiggling dances, and wall to wall ice age level hard precip. I'm all in By the way, the Moles have a shrine dedicated to your famous Xmas call. It's kind of spooky, so I thought you ought to know in case they show up all fan mole and such. Mac.... I have record tiny acorns falling, and they have now for months, they are everywhere, like tiny marbles trying to trip the humans up, and nary a squirrel to eat them. When the acorns pile up and the squirrels have fled to warmer climes, then the Brazilian comes into it's own! I figured out how to make rings that taste like Varsity rings, but I've only managed it once, The trick is soy sauce in the batter... I just couldn't get them crispy enough...so I don't think I'll be putting them out of business, lol. Michelle..... Glad you are getting cold, but have you had enough rain? I've been getting it all, I'm afraid though I've seen the sun now for almost a week, and it's freaking me out. I've grown used to the clouds....I need the clouds....I've seen folks with glittering skin when the sun's on them, and it's unsettling! By the way, I just checked one of my other remotes, and it says I got to 27 two nights ago, so I think it must have been freezing then, lol. It's official here too! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 JMA seasonal D/J...not to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 JMA seasonal D/J...not to bad. Sensible weather in that pattern would not be significantly colder than average for either December or January. The hope is that a few Miller As get really going and tap what little cold air there is to the NW for the first 2 months of meteorological winter. Is Feb out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Sensible weather in that pattern would not be significantly colder than average for either December or January. The hope is that a few Miller As get really going and tap what little cold air there is to the NW for the first 2 months of meteorological winter. Is Feb out yet? Yeah feb looks rockin'....J-F look to be the months, Dec backtracked at 850 and 500mb from the last run, as expected. This is setting up to be a pretty good Nino winter on the climate models...now lets see it verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Sensible weather in that pattern would not be significantly colder than average for either December or January. The hope is that a few Miller As get really going and tap what little cold air there is to the NW for the first 2 months of meteorological winter. Is Feb out yet? I would suspect that it would be below avg for the south/se but not overly. You blend a 83/87 type deal you get something comparable and those were just below avg down here and snowy. I really don't see how the -3F+ departures are going to verify for D-J temps in the southern plains and in the SE but we shall see. I am sure we are going to get plenty of 35-40F rains but your area (mountains) will clean up (200%+) type winter. If I had money that's what I would be betting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yeah feb looks rockin'....J-F look to be the months, Dec backtracked at 850 and 500mb from the last run, as expected. This is setting up to be a pretty good Nino winter on the climate models...now lets see it verify. I agree, at this point pretty much every seasonal (sans CFS) have the same general idea. I don't recall this much agreement on the climate models before but maybe I just don't remember. If we get some strat help then this could be really special for our area although I still think by end of Jan into Feb we get some solid blocking or atleast periods of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Last year: https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/519112529642266624 Wow that was pretty accurate. Atlanta got pretty much no snow last year. The far northern suburbs did, but Atlanta and the southern half of the metro did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 1987 was just about right here in the Carolinas, especially the mountains. A very nice amount of winter weather and no very cold air. This winter though is shaping up to potentially being a mix of 1982-83 and 2002-03 though. Not bad at all, but a little too much cold and dry weather than I would like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wow that was pretty accurate. Atlanta got pretty much no snow last year. The far northern suburbs did, but Atlanta and the southern half of the metro did not. no snow here last winter either.3 of the last 4 winters have been snowless. Back in the old days we used to always get at least a dusting every winter. In fact, up until 2006 I never recalled a winter where we didn't get at least some snow or ice. The last 10 winters have been awful, with the notable exception of a couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wow that was pretty accurate. Atlanta got pretty much no snow last year. The far northern suburbs did, but Atlanta and the southern half of the metro did not. Come on guys, give a Brazilian a second chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 GEFS goes nuts with the -EPO/+PNA into the first week of Dec. Still looks active too. Someone in the southern plains and on east will get some snow if this comes about the first week of Dec. Next week looks solidly below normal here and then we warm up for a few days before another cold shot shot comes. Nice spot for the pac low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Hey, that Dec 14 snow has a shot. Would be awesome since it's on my daughter's birthday. Seriously, I think we're on a good track for things to precede well as we enter December. I don't think snow around here in December is out of the question. Looks like we might have highs below 50 here already at the start of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 GEFS goes nuts with the -EPO/+PNA into the first week of Dec. Still looks active too. Someone in the southern plains and on east will get some snow if this comes about the first week of Dec. Next week looks solidly below normal here and then we warm up for a few days before another cold shot shot comes. Nice spot for the pac low. Can't recall seeing a map exactly like that. Pac looks great, NAO looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Can't recall seeing a map exactly like that. Pac looks great, NAO looks awful. Anything amplified will go through Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Can't recall seeing a map exactly like that. Pac looks great, NAO looks awful. Well that's been said for many a winter now. Although I guess it beats both being awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 JB just posted the updated "pioneer" model showing monthly temp departures for Dec-Mar....would be a epic winter with active STJ in the SE-E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 JB just posted the updated "pioneer" model showing monthly temp departures for Dec-Mar....would be a epic winter with active STJ in the SE-E. I$ it a pay per view? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I$ it a pay per view? Yes, but will take a snippet tomorrow and post. Something that extreme has got to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yes, but will take a snippet tomorrow and post. Something that extreme has got to be true. Haha absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 If I ever needed a good old fashioned winter to occupy my mind it's this one. Cause college basketball ain't gonna be turning my cranks this season. Or put it this way my cranks will be turning in the wrong direction. Anyway all eyes are getting glued to the models, teleconnections. Go time (December 1st) is showing up way out in fantasy land on the models now. Should see at least one good sized synoptic snow storm this year with the stj firing on all cylindars. Get the pna to stay positive and eventually it'll time it right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Can't recall seeing a map exactly like that. Pac looks great, NAO looks awful. +TNH setup. Should be well aware of this one by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 GEFS goes nuts with the -EPO/+PNA into the first week of Dec. Still looks active too. Someone in the southern plains and on east will get some snow if this comes about the first week of Dec. Next week looks solidly below normal here and then we warm up for a few days before another cold shot shot comes. Nice spot for the pac low. That's an awesome looking splitflow pattern. If a basin wide nino produces that pacific pattern this winter, it will be a very good winter. The NAO will cooperate in spurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 If I ever needed a good old fashioned winter to occupy my mind it's this one. Cause college basketball ain't gonna be turning my cranks this season. Or put it this way my cranks will be turning in the wrong direction. Anyway all eyes are getting glued to the models, teleconnections. Go time (December 1st) is showing up way out in fantasy land on the models now. Should see at least one good sized synoptic snow storm this year with the stj firing on all cylindars. Get the pna to stay positive and eventually it'll time it right for us. Yep, the first was looking good for N Ala on the gfs yesterday, or the day before. And some year it might actually snow in early Dec. again, so this might be the year All it takes is cold, and water, and timing, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Euro weeklies look decent too. Those longer range climate models December outlook may be in jeopardy. Enso is weighted heavily with those model's. With what previous strong nino data in them being that of nothing but mild, obviously they're going to spit out mild for December for much of the Nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Haha absolutely! Pioneer model for the SE...it did nail last two winters. This is something JoeD created. Temps Dec: -1.5C Jan: -2 to -3C Feb: -3 to -4C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Pioneer model for the SE...it did nail last two winters. This is something JoeD created. Temps Dec: -1.5C Jan: -2 to -3C Feb: -3 to -4C All aboard the pioneer model then! That would indeed be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Pioneer model for the SE...it did nail last two winters. This is something JoeD created. Temps Dec: -1.5C Jan: -2 to -3C Feb: -3 to -4C It is a picture of pure beauty. Saw it posted on another board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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