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Winter 15-16 Discussion

griteater

By griteater,
in Southeastern States

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griteater

griteater

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They are going with a SSW in Jan with east based blocking in Jan transitioning to west based blocking in Feb. They do better in the UK with east based blocking. They also indicated that it is very unusual for a vortex that starts out this strong to not be disrupted by wave activity down the line. We wait for now.
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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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Allright I've been enough Debbie downer. Shouldn't have looked at the polar vortex current strength as well as what it usually means going forward. I'm getting back to the basics. I hate this nino is so strong. The Weak Ninos ARE so much more productive. Really we only have one hope to have more than just a one hit storm wonder this season. That hope is the pna. I just viewed the gfs forecast its still going posotive and locking in out 15 days solidly on the + side. So we should see some benefits from this starting mid to late next week. I haven't studied 500mb to see how it's placing the HP out there. It's orientation and exact placement mean alot. But let's see if we head to a true split flow and carve a long wave trough out on the east coast. If so well get some opportunities. Trouble will be timing. We'd get LPS coming out of the stj and HP's sliding right through prime location in the NE to generate cads. But without any blocking thanks to the AO and NAO those HP's will be able to just scoot on by. Anyway you never know might get lucky atleast throwing something against the wall, could stick for once.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

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For those worried about the pattern you may want to look at 1957-1958, one of the top analog years for the current El Niño, placement of 500mb features and overall trends. Here is what December looked like for that year, very similar to what we see from the seasonal models and long range GFS/EURO. Look how drastically the pattern switched in January and February. Maybe someone can pull some snow totals around the south for those years? Either way it was quite cold in January/February and what I expect for this winter also.

post-2321-0-26792100-1448512774_thumb.pn

post-2321-0-29234900-1448512841_thumb.pn

post-2321-0-83500600-1448512848_thumb.pn

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calm_days

calm_days

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Winter's last gasp or first warning shot?

 

This short thread from summer 2014 is very interesting to read for many reasons! 

 

Since reading it last year, I have sometimes remembered to apply the author's concept to the weather patterns; I do wonder if a strong shift in patterns is going to happen or if a homogenous pattern will remain.  Has the southeast received a wet cold front yet this autumn?  What moved through last week of course was close but had the space of one and a half days after the moisture before the colder temperatures caught up.  The system in the center of the CONUS right now looks like it could be one, but we will have to see how it evolves. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

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Wow. There will be some spectacular wins and epic losses with regard to winter forecasts this year. I have hardly seen any middle road forecasts. I'd like to believe it will be epic this year because I am a weenie but I am sitting in shorts and hit 60F on Thanksgiving. Hard to think good winter thoughts.

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packbacker

packbacker

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Weeklies are hideous for the east...week 3 the AK low returns so cold is in south-central US and west, we are warm wall to wall. Takes us out to Dec 28th. +AO/+NAO/++Bad...not January yet though.

Edit: essentially weeklies (week 3-4) look like a repeat of first 3 weeks of Nov.

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Jon

Jon

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Wasn't sure Jon. Which is why I dropped in the "FWIW"

Oh ok it's cool. Watch his forecasts this year, he's terrible and busts horribly but claims he does well with his forecasts. He hypes for subscribers and $$$. He's been associated with Kevin Martin (this guy http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-the-nws-records-himself-yelli-1680725935)... Just not good stuff.
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RubiksDestroyer

RubiksDestroyer

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Not a lot of people talk about the 1902-03 analog, and for good reason as it was worse than awful...but it was a strong nino that has alot of similarities to this nino...

 

Past the Nino, it isn't really a good analog, IMO. Looking at the 500-mb maps you posted of 1902-1903, it looks like a really oddball pattern for an El Nino year; is that an SE ridge? Sure, we've had one for a good deal of November, but I suspect it's a temporary MJO-related deviation from a normal El Nino setup. If you look at the graphic below, you can see we've been in phase 3 for most of November, which is really odd (and unfavorable) for a strong El Nino year. The MJO looks to return to a neutral-ish state, much more typical (and favorable) for our area during a Nino:

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

Plus, that E-PAC looks way different than the SST maps you posted, especially south of the Gulf of Alaska. Relating that to the PNA, which was negative in 1902-1903, we should see a positive one this winter because of the difference in the setup.

sst.anom.gif

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packbacker

packbacker

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Past the Nino, it isn't really a good analog, IMO. Looking at the 500-mb maps you posted of 1902-1903, it looks like a really oddball pattern for an El Nino year; is that an SE ridge? Sure, we've had one for a good deal of November, but I suspect it's a temporary MJO-related deviation from a normal El Nino setup. If you look at the graphic below, you can see we've been in phase 3 for most of November, which is really odd (and unfavorable) for a strong El Nino year. The MJO looks to return to a neutral-ish state, much more typical (and favorable) for our area during a Nino:

NCPE__21m_small.gif

Plus, that E-PAC looks way different than the SST maps you posted, especially south of the Gulf of Alaska. Relating that to the PNA, which was negative in 1902-1903, we should see a positive one this winter because of the difference in the setup.

sst.anom.gif

Agree with MJO diving into COD may help going forward and Dec Nino climo is for cooler SW but there is no denying that we will need something significant and some time to weaken this massively strong PV. +PNA doesn't guarantee cold delivery, EPO does or we need AO to help. It may be tough to get -EPO with what should be a giant Npac low which is why the NE pac warmth may not be as big an influence this winter.
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RubiksDestroyer

RubiksDestroyer

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Agree with MJO diving into COD may help going forward and Dec Nino climo is for cooler SW but there is no denying that we will need something significant and some time to weaken this massively strong PV. +PNA doesn't guarantee cold delivery, EPO does or we need AO to help. It may be tough to get -EPO with what should be a giant Npac low which is why the NE pac warmth may not be as big an influence this winter.

I agree with the PV stuff being a long way to go, but we've got a whole month that's already expected to be meh to get some SSW events rolling. The best we can do in that regard is just hope for the SAI to actually kick in this year.

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RubiksDestroyer

RubiksDestroyer

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I have a question and warning, it may be a stupid one... How many thermometers did they have in the Pacific Ocean in 1902? I know we have recorded history of weather in our older cities but how much detail did we really have back that far?

I don't think we really had much of anything back then. Certainly not anything near today's level, so tbh I don't know how much of the 1902-1903 data is smoothed/patchworked together.

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griteater

griteater

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I have a question and warning, it may be a stupid one... How many thermometers did they have in the Pacific Ocean in 1902? I know we have recorded history of weather in our older cities but how much detail did we really have back that far?

I don't think we really had much of anything back then. Certainly not anything near today's level, so tbh I don't know how much of the 1902-1903 data is smoothed/patchworked together.

I don't have a specific article to point to, but just going on what I've read, there are several SST datasets that have similar results in the ENSO regions and other areas going back to around the 1870's or so. From what I gather, the data is more comprehensive and consistent than you might think.
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RONALD1

RONALD1

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Weeklies are hideous for the east...week 3 the AK low returns so cold is in south-central US and west, we are warm wall to wall. Takes us out to Dec 28th. +AO/+NAO/++Bad...not January yet though.

Edit: essentially weeklies (week 3-4) look like a repeat of first 3 weeks of Nov.

The control run is much colder on the weeklies .. Dec will be a back an forth month..

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nomanslandva

nomanslandva

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I don't have a specific article to point to, but just going on what I've read, there are several SST datasets that have similar results in the ENSO regions and other areas going back to around the 1870's or so. From what I gather, the data is more comprehensive and consistent than you might think.

Oh cool!  Thanks!

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