Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 The past developing ninos that showed war and the propensity on all guidance to show it on some level. Even the long range trough indeed bows to it keeping lowest heights west of us. Watch that retrograde as the WAR builds.thanks, something to keep an eye on for sure, deeper anamolies are certainly west but not far enough in my opinion to create a Bermuda High setup. 5h Looks very Feb 13 Jan 15 like as unreal as that seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 The TS is going to pump the ridge next week . Once the thing forms, chances are we'll see guidance start picking up on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 The past developing ninos that showed war and the propensity on all guidance to show it on some level. Even the long range trough indeed bows to it keeping lowest heights west of us. Watch that retrograde as the WAR builds.that's what happened in aug 2009 and 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Overnight runs sure trended that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I don't see a change in overnight runs. The problem, is that some of you are using op runs which obviously are volatile. I feel like any notable change is more like next week. Whether it's cool polar air or more of the warm-fropa-warm pattern remains to be seen, but it's a change in the 500mb flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I don't see a change in overnight runs. The problem, is that some of you are using op runs which obviously are volatile. I feel like any notable change is more like next week. Whether it's cool polar air or more of the warm-fropa-warm pattern remains to be seen, but it's a change in the 500mb flow. Yeah...looks like the first stretch where we don't get much of a cool down after the cold fropa (mild down) Thu night/Friday. We're probably looking at late next week before we have the chance for anything much cooler...we'll see if that holds together in the coming days. d10-15 looked nice overnight...would love to see that come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Yeah...looks like the first stretch where we don't get much of a cool down after the cold fropa (mild down) Thu night/Friday. We're probably looking at late next week before we have the chance for anything much cooler...we'll see if that holds together in the coming days. d10-15 looked nice overnight...would love to see that come to fruition. Yeah agreed. That's a pretty strong signal for an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Looks like a blocky pattern developing with the EPO ridge developing, as has been typical since July 2013. Exactly!!! I've been using the phrase "base-line pattern," but that really just refers to that typology you mention here. And you are right ...it was about mid summer, 2013, that the warm biased pattern that lasted some 3 to 4 years changed to this new paradigm. So we're 2 years in? Yeah... As I was discussing before, they tend to bias-last ..circa 3 to 5 years before the chapters changes. Interesting... Now, OT: but...combining that latency to block with a strengthening summer warm ENSO leading into statistically correlated +PNA autumn could be interesting for early cold and storminess folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Man ..look at that freaking WAR on today's Euro.. Damn impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2015 Author Share Posted July 27, 2015 It's cast aside as the Euro being the Euro and getting way too ridge happy. that will end up verifying cooler and farther east matching it's own ENS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Man ..look at that freaking WAR on today's Euro.. Damn impressive Is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Is that good?It has 90+ for days and days at many interior locations thru day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 It has 90+ for days and days at many interior locations thru day 9Excellent, the stuff summer dreams are made of. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2015 Author Share Posted July 27, 2015 The pattern change begins Aug 5th and is complete by Aug 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2015 Author Share Posted July 27, 2015 Excellent, the stuff summer dreams are made of. Sent from my HTC One good luck , let us know how many of those 9 days of 90s Kev says you get, that you actually hit 90, over under is 5. Heat wave coming for sure but 9 days nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Always have to look for a way to not have it as hot as it looks. Never can admit a good ole fashioned heat wave is coming. BDL/IJD/PVD all will have 6+ days of 90 or higher in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2015 Author Share Posted July 27, 2015 Always have to look for a way to not have it as hot as it looks. Never can admit a good ole fashioned heat wave is coming. BDL/IJD/PVD all will have 6+ days of 90 or higher in the next 10 dayswut? No one said no heat wave, you take things off the hook, like last week with your 95-97 calls that verified 90 and below, surprise you haven't called for widespread heat related deaths this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 wut? No one said no heat wave, you take things off the hook, like last week with your 95-97 calls that verified 90 and below, surprise you haven't called for widespread heat related deaths this year. Highs were 94-95 at the spots it was supposed to be. That verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2015 Author Share Posted July 27, 2015 Highs were 94-95 at the spots it was supposed to be. That verified.EWR? where else Anyway first heat wave of the season incoming what will you be doing to enjoy it? I hope to be inside while at work and in the water if not in AC. Feel sorry for the peeps working outside and those who don't have AC. Nothing more enjoyable than running from AC to AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 EWR? where else Anyway first heat wave of the season incoming what will you be doing to enjoy it? I hope to be inside while at work and in the water if not in AC. Feel sorry for the peeps working outside and those who don't have AC. Nothing more enjoyable than running from AC to AC BDL hit 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 BDL hit 94 BDL only hit 92F. The last hot airmass definitely underperformed relative to guidance just a couple days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 BDL only hit 92F. The last hot airmass definitely underperformed relative to guidance just a couple days out.Ok my bad . I thought they hit 94. Maybe it was TAN? I know someone did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Looks like no major changes on the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Highs were 94-95 at the spots it was supposed to be. That verified. EWR? where else Anyway first heat wave of the season incoming what will you be doing to enjoy it? I hope to be inside while at work and in the water if not in AC. Feel sorry for the peeps working outside and those who don't have AC. Nothing more enjoyable than running from AC to AC BDL hit 94 BDL only hit 92F. The last hot airmass definitely underperformed relative to guidance just a couple days out. Ok my bad . I thought they hit 94. Maybe it was TAN? I know someone did It was 93-94 at TAN on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 My over under for 90+ at KHUBBA2 is 1 And that might not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 It does seem like a summery week ahead through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Oh how we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 With the pig WAR building in next week. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 18z GFS toned down the heat wave a bit...NYC doesn't get into 20C 850s anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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