dendrite Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Looks pretty troughy right through mid August at least. Massive COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 That agrees with my thoughts. Definite growing warmer signal mid month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 That agrees with my thoughts. Definite growing warmer signal mid month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 That agrees with my thoughts. Definite growing warmer signal mid month and beyond.Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 Euro weeklies are normal to below for the 4 weeks, not seeing a WAR in that prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 Wheres the WAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 There isn't a WAR. If it goes AN, likely due to trough being far enough west to allow warmer and more humid air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 There isn't a WAR. If it goes AN, likely due to trough being far enough west to allow warmer and more humid air. which is exactly what 5 h shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 Reflected surface temp progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I see things you don't see. I know a lot about seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 I see things you don't see. I know a lot about seeing.can you see this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 WAR is the new fad term on here, people like to throw it around even in situations where it doesn't apply. I don't see any sign of a Bermuda high/Atlantic ridge on the modeling for August. Looks like more of a +PNA pattern with a cold upper Midwest and reasonably cool Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 WAR is the new fad term on here, people like to throw it around even in situations where it doesn't apply. I don't see any sign of a Bermuda high/Atlantic ridge on the modeling for August. Looks like more of a +PNA pattern with a cold upper Midwest and reasonably cool Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 That's not entirely fair ... "WAR," as the acronym means "West Atlantic Ridge" emerged as a weather-related social media expression waaaay back in Eastern WX BB days; in fact, it may have even been Wright Weather at that. Is it in the AMS Glossary? prooobably not, but not a new fad term. This site's dumbed down and terms like that disappeared with the emergence of shinanegans over science, btw. I don't even bother making substantive posts because they don't get read. People just want whipped cream - a cultural bias behavior to seek satisfaction without effort now invades this area too. Instead of learning what cues to look for so that one may analyze the models ...teleconnectors, whatever, on their own, they just want to hear "snow" and how much ... In the older days of Eastern, people cared more to learn and showed some effort to really be engaged is all... I bring it up because terms like WAR were rooted in the "art" of the older days of forum, the residue of real intellectual involvement. So of course, people think it's new. But it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Every time Nate says I don't know what I'm talking about my forecast verifies. I recall I the autumn of 2010 when I called for a huge winter and he thought otherwise. My retort was "see you in April meat". Any questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 can you see this lol LOL. Apologies for a 'non-pattern' question here, but any preliminary thoughts on next weekend? I (and family member coming to visit) are running the Bridge of Flowers 10K on Saturday with post race pool. Weather permitting. Hoping for COC in the strictest definition of the term. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 LOL. Apologies for a 'non-pattern' question here, but any preliminary thoughts on next weekend? I (and family member coming to visit) are running the Bridge of Flowers 10K on Saturday with post race pool. Weather permitting. Hoping for COC in the strictest definition of the term. TIA. Cooler than this weekend. What time is the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Got the distinct impression the 00z Euro was expanding the areal expanse of at, or sub 0 C 850 mb temperatures over the N-polar regions above the 70 th parallel already - Tell me this isn't the last 18 months of pattern bias incarnate on the D9... With a block migrating through the SW region of the NAO domain space, a huge attending lower tropospheric +PP anomaly manifesting on-going deep (cold Maritime+E Canada)/2 = arse pounding assault on summer enthusiasts air mass, ...that may as well bop the region right to the end of September or early October with that appeal. 850's to < +10 C with that? Buut, we all know that the Euro tends to be amplitude happy in that range. I find that funny, too.. I've been reading about the make-up/engineering behind that particular model, and one concept they materialize is "correction" algorithms. I won't bother going into it, but the gist is ... they come up with means to smooth/normalize for exotic permutations that tend to emerge way out in time; the hope is, tamping down the bad ones no doubt. Well ... the constant tendency to cleave out depthy troughs into the OV ... shouldn't that be an easy one? So, for now I'd say this Euro run is bullsh!t until it gets inside of about D 4.5. At any rate, whether this D 8 Euro pans out or not... it really hearkens to an on-going state of the atmosphere where it keeps wanting to engender blocking packets beween the 40th and 70th parallels. The models seem to detect it from time to time? It would also appear to be endemic mainly to North America. It's been going on since mid summer, 2013 ... and as discussed before, though it seems at times like it's finally stopping, it doesn't. The models get right back to it like it is a "base-line" sort of look. Going to be interesting as the autumn nears. We got one month of Met summer left in us.. The weather pattern(s) modeled already try at times to sans the season; yet, the burgeoning warm ENSO would have a cold autumn, anyway. hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 BOS down sloping it's brains out. Up 7 last hour to 84 at 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Cooler than this weekend. What time is the run? 9:00a.m. start. Are you calling for sun with those temps? That would be awesome. I highly recommend the race to runners on the board. Arguably the worst hill in a NE race outside of the Mt. Washington race (obviously). www.bridgeofflowers10k.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 Every time Nate says I don't know what I'm talking about my forecast verifies. I recall I the autumn of 2010 when I called for a huge winter and he thought otherwise. My retort was "see you in April meat". Any questions? July 13 meat, you insisted the pattern would not change, see you in Sept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 BOS down sloping it's brains out. Up 7 last hour to 84 at 10. top ten beach day so envious of Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 July 13 meat, you insisted the pattern would not change, see you in Sept I caved and gave you kudos and this is how I'm treated...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 BOS heating slowed due to clouds but now it's clear again. Today with lower dews could fly under the radar in temperature....hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 I caved and gave you kudos and this is how I'm treated...lol. we are meat buds, if you are right with the WAR setting up its your finest Vino bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 we are meat buds, if you are right with the WAR setting up its your finest Vino bottle. It's me against the met world now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 It's me against the met world now. i can see the very last week of august fitting your call though, hence my call for a normal month with first and last AN and middle 2 BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Guys, I was just discussing some of this in the tropical thread... Be leery of a CV system or two in the last two weeks of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 yep if this were winter it would be fire up the bus week. yep, pattern responds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 That's sick... I doubted the 00z but this run comes in flipping me personally, the bird. ha! but yeah, talking last week of Sept weather there, with a misty nor'easter and temps only around 60. Given the tele spread, it's not a 'un' buyable solution. we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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