ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 00z GFS is quite similar to 00z NAM for Monday. Ehhhhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 11, 2015 Author Share Posted July 11, 2015 Given how relatively flat the heights are, I think most are pretty much prepared for the trend to be south and west, unless of course the main shortwave moving through manages to really amplify (instead of remaining sheared out and fast moving). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 For MSP Sunday night per the GFS. It shows storms just north of MSP at Mon 03z. with a SPC potential of this. And a sounding of this. With a cap strength of 5.2 and strong temp inversion just off the deck. Does anyone believe the convection can break out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 SPC has a day 2 enhanced for parts of central/se MN into W WI and extreme NE IA. Slight risk around that and southeastward through a good chunk of IL and the SW half of IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Hot link so it will change. Seems like the SPC is banking on the cap breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Ugh... before the 00z runs, I thought we were gonna get a good/interesting day 3 outlook.... now I'm worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Throwing an outdoor party Sunday evening, so this has my attention (more-so for general rain concerns than severe weather, but the latter is slowly starting to creep into the picture). Drenching rains Saturday (point & click saying 0.5" to 0.75") should wipe out most of the firewood pile, despite a tarp already in place, and make for a pretty muddy backyard, not to mention the threat of storms and muggy conditions for Sunday. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Ugh... before the 00z runs, I thought we were gonna get a good/interesting day 3 outlook.... now I'm worried. How are they any worse than previous runs for the main threat areas involved? That is unless you are talking about Ohio, which was never the primary region to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Bets on which NAM run spits out the magical 10,000. ...and the 7/11 00z it is. I always get frustrated when "JK" writes AFD's for IND, because he doesn't go into any detail. This is an example from this morning's discussion, although it is an interesting understated quote: AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 ...and the 7/11 00z it is. I always get frustrated when "JK" writes AFD's for IND, because he doesn't go into any detail. This is an example from this morning's discussion, although it is an interesting understated quote: AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY. Well yeah he probably types up a bunch of good info in the AFD and then goes "just kidding" and deletes it before releasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 It feels like the SPC was a little too south with the enhanced and didn't go far enough north with the slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Just noticed that the enhanced area on SWODY3 is hatched along with the northwest part of the slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 It feels like the SPC was a little too south with the enhanced and didn't go far enough north with the slight. If anything they are still too generous in the north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 ...and the 7/11 00z it is. I always get frustrated when "JK" writes AFD's for IND, because he doesn't go into any detail. This is an example from this morning's discussion, although it is an interesting understated quote: AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY. Here is a snippet from yesterdays AFD at IND by MR---This is a superior example of the detail needed in an AFD THE WAVE ALOFT SET TO ARRIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SHORT TERM AND AT FIRST GLANCE... PRESENTS OMINOUS SIGNALS THAT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING STRONG INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY TO THE TUNE OF 3000-5000 J/KG AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING DEWPOINT AIR APPROACHING 75 DEGREES. WITH A NOTED LOW LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM A STRONGER JET ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...ALL THE FACTORS ARE PRESENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE OR MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. VERY LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SHOULD ALL THIS COME TO FRUITION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 How are they any worse than previous runs for the main threat areas involved? That is unless you are talking about Ohio, which was never the primary region to begin with. I thought we are/were. Most of the previous runs had a large bow echo for Indiana/west Ohio with extreme instability. Last night's runs still had this bow echo, but the instability was lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Any high wind event could be catastrophic here as well as other areas as the ground is completely saturated and has been for weeks. Major power interruptions would be likely I would think. Not sure you could place the threat in worse spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 South and west is the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Day 3 mentions a possible significant tornado threat "depending on the character of the outflow boundaries". I'm assuming Sunday's MCS timing, development, and track will all play a key role in this threat evolving or not. ..ERN IA...IL...IN...WRN OH...KY...NRN TN... MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR STORMS TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSSIL AND INDIANA NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEAR THESYNOPTIC FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WINDTHREAT. DURING THE DAY...HEATING WILL RESULT IN EXTREMEDESTABILIZATION FORM THE FRONT WWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ASDEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 70S F AND BENEATH RELATIVELY COOLTEMPERATURES ALOFT. THEN...TWO GENERAL SCENARIOS ARE EXPECTED:1...A REJUVENATION OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOWBOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS. HERE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLEGIVEN VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITHHEIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITHANY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT DEPENDING ON THE CHARACTER OF THEOUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH IS STILL TBD.2...LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER IA AND EXPANDINGSSEWD ACROSS IL. THIS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FORPARTICULARLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM LATE-AFTERNOONTHROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXTREMEINSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPERLEVEL FLOW FOR THE SEASON ALL SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 12z NAM is back to monster instability on Sunday.... the most unstable sector is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Day 3 mentions a possible significant tornado threat "depending on the character of the outflow boundaries". I'm assuming Sunday's MCS timing, development, and track will all play a key role in this threat evolving or not. Looks like the SPC is finally catching onto the 2015 theme of waiting until after the morning junk has left to make a call on the TOR threat. However with forecasted instability like this there may actually be a high amount even after morning convection, if there is some, makes its way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 12z NAM is back to monster instability on Sunday.... the most unstable sector is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Looks like the SPC is finally catching onto the 2015 theme of waiting until after the morning junk has left to make a call on the TOR threat. Looks like they are taking the safe route for sure, and I can't blame them. Nearly all forecast significant severe events this year have either under performed or busted horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Exactly Nice nocturnal convection SPC talked about this in their outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 12z NAM looks great. Picking up from where it left off with yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 How are they any worse than previous runs for the main threat areas involved? That is unless you are talking about Ohio, which was never the primary region to begin with.No, Ohio is one of the main threat regions. Remember what happened last time a D3 ENH was issued for an MCS event? It got screwed. I'd put my money on a northeast shift...imo there's no way the southwestern side of the current outlook will verify. Mid to upper level flow is more easterly than southerly and northern ends of these MCSs produce the most damage (the forward-propagating part of course). I just can't see that scenario with the current day 3...it's being underdone for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Tuesday also looks interesting but the models vary crazily with what's going to happen...especially the SREF plumes. I'm sure that indicates that something serious goes down in the region on Monday. Any mods want to change the title to 12-? rather than 10-13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Just noticed that the enhanced area on SWODY3 is hatched along with the northwest part of the slight risk. Honestly can't remember the last time we were in an enhanced risk area. Monday could be a fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 All these new Ohio people rooting for a N shift like its winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 No, Ohio is one of the main threat regions. Remember what happened last time a D3 ENH was issued for an MCS event? It got screwed. I'd put my money on a northeast shift...imo there's no way the southwestern side of the current outlook will verify. Mid to upper level flow is more easterly than southerly and northern ends of these MCSs produce the most damage (the forward-propagating part of course). I just can't see that scenario with the current day 3...it's being underdone for Ohio. I think we'd call that westerly smells like a wishcast. WNW-NW flow at 500mb and 250mb...and with the orientation of the instability gradient, there is no way something organized is moving due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I think we'd call that westerly smells like a wishcast. WNW-NW flow at 500mb and 250mb...and with the orientation of the instability gradient, there is no way something organized is moving due east. se1.gif se2.gif It has the event starting on the right front quadrant of the 500mb jet streak in N IN. With that solution, the enhanced risk area should shift east because the bow moves nearly due south. But 12z GFS has a blob of precip near the IL/IA/WI border at 12z, and it moves southeasterly throughout the day... the storm track would justify the current position of the enhanced risk area. Can't wait to read some AFDs later on. I have no clue what to think at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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