Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Good argument about classic vs HP for any supercell tomorrow Battle between 60-80kts upper level flow/extreme instability for venting vs upper 70 dews and PWATS near 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Very distinct discrete supercell tracks on the 12z 12km NAM qpf fields tomorrow evening. And very scary tracks at that. Chicago metro and QCA. 00z 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Very distinct discrete supercell tracks on the 12z 12km NAM qpf fields tomorrow evening. And very scary tracks at that. Chicago metro and QCA. 00z 03z The low levels really take off after 21z tomorrow. Surface all the way up to 850 the winds really respond and stay relatively backed. Pretty scary scenario given the instability potential, and that seasonally strong upper jet right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 aaand a Sharpy sounding analog for ORD is Plainfield.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 GFS and NAM still look great for tomorrow. ILN's morning AFD: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THISEVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...AND AGAIN ASSUMING WEARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE COULDTHEN GET INTO A LULL OVERNIGHT AS A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS THEWESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THENIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THAT MCS COULD WORK DOWN INTO OUR AREATHROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THEAFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THAT MCSPLAYS OUT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH DEVELOPING STRONGINSTABILITY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...UP INTOOUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WITH VERY IMPRESSIVESHEAR VALUES/HELICITIES...ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES WILL BEPOSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSOBE LIKELY. RIGHT NOW THE AXIS OF BEST ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WOULDRUN ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA SO WILL LIKELYEVENTUALLY NEED AN FFA OUT FOR AT LEAST THOSE AREAS. WITH THATSTILL BEING A WAYS OUT THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THAT THREATIN THE HWO. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTOTUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Assuming the morning MCS doesn't foul things up, northern IL is in big trouble tomorrow. Not only all severe hazards possible, but high-end severe hazards. Will be interesting to see how long discrete mode can be maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Assuming the morning MCS doesn't foul things up, northern IL is in big trouble tomorrow. Not only all severe hazards possible, but high-end severe hazards. Will be interesting to see how long discrete mode can be maintained. I don't even think maintained would matter much for Chicago especially if the afternoon development forms right over them. It will be supercells initially and if they develop over the metro area things are going to get ugly fast. The amount of instability is incredibly high and it seems every run as we get closer to tomorrow is inching the shear profile upward. Not to mention you really don't need great bulk shear when you have 5000 J/kg SBCAPE. The fact that we might end up having the good shear collocated with extreme instability really puts a high end risk for the area. It will be very interesting to track tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 There's been some mention of similarities to the Roanoke IL F4 event from back in 2004. So, put this radar loop together yesterday, using DVN and ILX data. Unfortunately this was before the implementation of super-res, so it's a bit pixely looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 aaand a Sharpy sounding analog for ORD is Plainfield.. And the second one is Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 It's only Noon local time and east South Dakota is up to 7000 SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 you know south is the way to go You are usually spot on with your trend calls and so far SPC has agreed with you. However, models have been spuriously depicting strong activity over Chicagoland, including the 4km NAM, as Ricky posted above. It would seem to make sense, being that it would be following the instability gradient. I'm curious to see if SPC bumps the moderate a little northeast on their Day 2 update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Old day 2 outlook: New day 2 outlook: The moderate risk now has more of a south-southeast tilt than southeast. Enhanced and moderate risk expanded north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Chicago now included in the 45% hatched moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Nice snippet from the new Day 2 outlook: "A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SEEMS PROBABLE FROM NERN IL SSEWDACROSS IND INTO NRN KY FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THEEVENING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 You are usually spot on with your trend calls and so far SPC has agreed with you. However, models have been spuriously depicting strong activity over Chicagoland, including the 4km NAM, as Ricky posted above. It would seem to make sense, being that it would be following the instability gradient. I'm curious to see if SPC bumps the moderate a little northeast on their Day 2 update. Easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 For the record, if tomorrow should go high risk, it would be both the first of the year and also the first in July since 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 For the record, if tomorrow should go high risk, it would be both the first of the year and also the first in July since 2002. I was actually just wondering when the last July High Risk was. Not saying tomorrow will get there, but we will see how things pan out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I'm not as good at this as most, these threats are primarily wind gusts from derechos with a relatively low chance of TORs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I'm not as good at this as most, these threats are primarily wind gusts from derechos with a relatively low chance of TORs? Highest tornado threat would be with the initial development... which is usually supercellular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I'm not as good at this as most, these threats are primarily wind gusts from derechos with a relatively low chance of TORs? Tomorrow isn't really that case. It probably won't be a large scale tornado outbreak per say, but the threat is higher than with just a purely derecho/MCS event, depending on storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 And the second one is Roanoke. With tomorrow being 11 years to the day since that tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I was actually just wondering when the last July High Risk was. Not saying tomorrow will get there, but we will see how things pan out tomorrow. If there were to be a high risk, it'd most likely be for Indiana, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Looks like an outflow boundary from earlier convection north of the TC is drifting SSW. If that thing gets hung up it could add to more fuel to the fire later. CAPE values skyrocketing to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 If there were to be a high risk, it'd most likely be for Indiana, no? IL/IN would be where I'd put one if they went High, it all depends on the track and size of the potential derecho that is forecast to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Some of the high-res models are picking up on discrete mode with the early development later tomorrow... The 12z HRW-ARW The 12z HRW-NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 North-central IL has been one of the hotspots recently, tomorrow would make it 3/3 bigger events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Tomorrow isn't really that case. It probably won't be a large scale tornado outbreak per say, but the threat is higher than with just a purely derecho/MCS event, depending on storm mode. Agreed. I think IF we get a high risk tomorrow, it's more likely to be for wind than tornadoes, but tomorrow is one of those days that is capable of tornadoes with potential for a high end one or two, and that threat would only be heightened with local backing of the surface winds or favorable storm scale interactions. Not a coincidence imo that 7/13/04 and 8/28/90 are showing up on those SHARPy soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I heard from someone whos uncle works for the NWS (I've confirmed his uncle is an employee, he aint bluffing) that the SPC is considering a day one High Risk for Wind across Illinois and Exteme Nortwest Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 I heard from someone whos uncle works for the NWS (I've confirmed his uncle is an employee, he aint bluffing) that the SPC is considering a day one High Risk for Wind across Illinois and Exteme Nortwest Indiana. That's a strange place to put the high risk... you'd think the 60% wind would be placed where the bow echo is most mature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 ^Wouldn't surprise me. After this thing gets organized into a mature MCS with a strong cold pool later tomorrow evening it's going to do some serious work as it heads southeast. Much of Indiana looks like it has the best shot for some of the higher wind potential later tomorrow evening as far as coverage. Large cape, impressive LLJ, loaded downdrafts, rear inflow momentum transfer with the strong mid-upper jet right overhead, etc. Could end up being a textbook derecho if things go as they look now. Gonna be one hell of a lightning show as well lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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