June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOS had 1 record low max in the 40s before this so these past 2 days now make it 3x.

That's pretty amazing stuff, that 2 of the 3 coldest maxes for a 3 month period just happened. At least to me it is...

I guess Caitlyn Jenner is more amazing to the general population

[dendrite]

Any record with 100-150 yrs of data is impressive, but a 49F on 6/1 or 6/2 isn't earth shattering to me. It just took the right setup to start the month. I think the fact that it was back-to-back was the most impressive aspect.

[Ginx snewx]

June 1945 was the only other max temp below 50 and it also has the lowest June temp recorded of 41 but separate days, low max was the 5th, low temp was the 1st 

[MarkO]

This year has been incredible with the record cold/snow, warmth for May and now more records for June. A Cat 3 in late October with mountain snow on the backside would be an appropriate bookend.

[dendrite]

This year has been incredible with the record cold/snow, warmth for May and now more records for June. A Cat 3 in late October with mountain snow on the backside would be an appropriate bookend.

Record cold JJA and record warm DJF incoming.

[Typhoon Tip]

Any record with 100-150 yrs of data is impressive, but a 49F on 6/1 or 6/2 isn't earth shattering to me. It just took the right setup to start the month. I think the fact that it was back-to-back was the most impressive aspect.

 

Agreed, Bri -

 

Actually while living in Waltham ...gosh, 2000 I think it was, we had a June nor'easter. That sucker was replete with CF advisories, and swept sheeting misty rains that howled through the telegraph lines as far west as that location in SE Middlesex. It was around the 10th of June ... temperatures were 51 or 52, so not as impressive and perhaps a tick or two above any records, but point being, we can get the slaps in the face done around here from my own experience.  

 

2005 was an exceptionally chilly May for SNE that extended to perhaps June 2nd or 3rd with 50F chill, to name another. 

 

But having "quasi" persistence in that it lasted three days was pretty much more pathetic on summer -- kind of like the Red Sox: apparently amazing on offensive paper but playing worse then rectal plaque so far.  

 

Folks, ... three models, three different variations on heat, but it warms significantly in the operational GGEM, Euro and GFS toward mid month.  With limited agreement on how... sans confidence. But, sometimes the very early aroma of change emerges in the runs merely out of focus.  The teleconnectors offer some hint there, though, with extended support for some reduction in the strength of +PNAP.  Not saying it characterizes the rest of the summer, but pending a couple few cycles of tele computations being matched by more emerging operational nods ... might flag a summer's return with more panache during the ides of the month. 

Heh, might not be saying much, because it pretty much has to get warmer from where we've been as of late. 

[Whineminster]

Agreed, Bri -

 

Actually while living in Waltham ...gosh, 2000 I think it was, we had a June nor'easter. That sucker was replete with CF advisories, and swept sheeting misty rains that howled through the telegraph lines as far west as that location in SE Middlesex. It was around the 10th of June ... temperatures were 51 or 52, so not as impressive and perhaps a tick or two above any records, but point being, we can get the slaps in the face done around here from my own experience.  

 

2005 was an exceptionally chilly May for SNE that extended to perhaps June 2nd or 3rd with 50F chill, to name another. 

 

But having "quasi" persistence in that it lasted three days was pretty much more pathetic on summer -- kind of like the Red Sox: apparently amazing on offensive paper but playing worse then rectal plaque so far.  

 

Folks, ... three models, three different variations on heat, but it warms significantly in the operational GGEM, Euro and GFS toward mid month.  With limited agreement on how... sans confidence. But, sometimes the very early aroma of change emerges in the runs merely out of focus.  The teleconnectors offer some hint there, though, with extended support for some reduction in the strength of +PNAP.  Not saying it characterizes the rest of the summer, but pending a couple few cycles of tele computations being matched by more emerging operational nods ... might flag a summer's return with more panache during the ides of the month. 

Heh, might not be saying much, because it pretty much has to get warmer from where we've been as of late. 

HHH FTW? 

[dendrite]

Euro cold sectors most of us Monday. Severe fail on that run.

[forkyfork]

Euro cold sectors most of us Monday. Severe fail on that run.

pa/ny/nj/western new england

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Any record with 100-150 yrs of data is impressive, but a 49F on 6/1 or 6/2 isn't earth shattering to me. It just took the right setup to start the month. I think the fact that it was back-to-back was the most impressive aspect.

 

Warm May made folks more sensitive to the cold but it certainly was not that extreme.  50/48 here right now.

Actually, it was nice to light the wood stove Monday night to warm and dry the house after 2 days of cold rain.

I've yet to install the AC's this year.  Maybe mid-month?  May was warm and pleasant.  Only two days that I would have even considered turning on an AC so far.

[donsutherland1]

With a 49° low temperature, Boston has now had 4 days in June with low temperatures below 50°. That's the most such days since June 1997 when there were 5. The last June prior to 1997 with at least 4 such days occurred in 1982. In 1982, ENSO regions had begun to warm rapidly. In 1997, what would become a super El Niño was already under way.

[HoarfrostHubb]

With a 49° low temperature, Boston has now had 4 days in June with low temperatures below 50°. That's the most such days since June 1997 when there were 5. The last June prior to 1997 with at least 4 such days occurred in 1982. In 1982, ENSO regions had begun to warm rapidly. In 1997, what would become a super El Niño was already under way.

Hi Don. Any idea what the overall June record for sub-50 lows at BOS is?

Thanks

I got to 48.3F this morning

[Hoth]

This year has been incredible with the record cold/snow, warmth for May and now more records for June. A Cat 3 in late October with mountain snow on the backside would be an appropriate bookend.

Reminds me a little of '11 with respect to records and strange anomolies. Record January snow and cold that year, followed by an incredible tornado season generally and the June 1 outbreak here, Irene in August, freak snowstorm in October. We'll see what the rest of '15 has up its sleeve. Edit: Feel free to move this to banter...

[Ginx snewx]

Logan June days less than 49 or equal to 49

	1948	4	
	1947	4	
	1997	5	
	1965	7	
	1945	7 

 

Hi Don. Any idea what the overall June record for sub-50 lows at BOS is?

Thanks

I got to 48.3F this morning

[Ginx snewx]

Boston city WSO (siting matters)

	1881	12	
	1879	9	
	1907	7	
	1926	6

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the numbers, Ginxy.

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks for the numbers, Ginxy.

You are welcome

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks Steve

[Modfan]

When does the heat (75+) return, late next week?

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks Steve

you are welcome

[Ginx snewx]

When does the heat (75+) return, late next week?

13?

[IsentropicLift]

When does the heat (75+) return, late next week?

 

[IsentropicLift]

CPC also going with above normal precip

[Ginx snewx]

CPC also going with above normal precip

CPC with a total fail this week, they had AN all week for the last 2 weeks

[ORH_wxman]

CPC with a total fail this week, they had AN all week for the last 2 weeks

 

 

Yeah they missed the boat on that one...but summer forecasting is inherently more difficult. So I'm not one to crtiicize to harshly...but that should also be evidence not too take those forecasts too seriously. Esp 8-14 day.

[Ginx snewx]

Jerry must have hated June 1903 , that mid month streak was god awful

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/06/04/summer-are-you-there/

[Whineminster]

CPC with a total fail this week, they had AN all week for the last 2 weeks

You love temps below normal. 

[Ginx snewx]

You love temps below normal. 

No I love normal temps and low dews. I really want to use my pool, but with an air temp of 58 and a pool temp of 59, guess that isn't happening anytime soon.

[Typhoon Tip]

Doesn't come across to me like the general public here are using those CPC products correctly, anyway...

 

The color means nothing, other then sloped odds.  What that product actually indicates is that CPC sees a 50% chance for above normal.. 

 

Well, what does that mean?   That's equivalent to saying 50% chance of No Skill... Not very convincing gamble to begin with...

 

Gets up above 70% ..yeah, you can start to question but you rarely see a D8-14 push a 90% chance either way.  

[Ginx snewx]

The 8-14 day Outlook gives the confidence that a forecaster has, given as a probability, that the observed temperature, averaged over upcoming days 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 will be in the range of one of three possible categories below (, normal (N), or above (A). For any calendar 7-day period, these categories can be defined by separating the 30 years of the climatology period, 1981-2010 (30 years), into the coldest 10 years, the middle 10 years, and the warmest 10 years. Because each of these categories occurs 1/3 of the time (10 times) during 1981-2010, for any particular calendar 7-day period, the probability of any category being selected at random from the 1981-2010 set of 30 observations is one in three (1/3), or 33.33%. This is also called the climatological probability. The sum of the climatological probabilities of the three categories is 100%.

 

Graphical Information 
The colored shading on the map indicates the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the category indicated, where "B" and blue colors indicate "below-normal" and "A" and orange-red colors indicate "above normal". The darker the shading, the greater is the level of confidence. The numbers labeling the contours separating different shades gives the probability that the indicated category (A, B, or N) will occur.

The probabilities of all three categories are implied on the map, and sum to 100%. The forecast probabilities given on the map generally fall far short of complete confidence (100%) in any single category. When the probability of the above (A) or below ( category is greater than 33.33% by some amount, the probability of the opposite category declines by that amount, while the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33%. In the event that the N category is greater than 33.33%, the probabilities of both the "A" and "B" categories is each reduced by 1/2 the amount that the "N" category exceeds 33.33%. When the probability of "A", or "B" reaches 63.33% or higher, the odds of the opposite category reach a minimum allowed value of 3.33%, while the odds of the middle category are allowed to drop below 33.33%.

The dashed contours on the map give the average of the temperature over the set of 30 observations for the calendar 7-day period during 1981-2010, in degrees Farenheit.