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Quincy

Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

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From BMX's AFD for Monday into Tuesday. Very, very bullish. Make a thread in here, or SE?


The shortwave on Sunday night will serve as a primer wave for the next system developing to our west on Monday. A wide area of rich moisture will be lurking near the Gulf Coast, poised to move inland Monday afternoon and evening as wind fields respond to a shortwave entering the Southern Plains. Models are coming into agreement on a potentially dangerous setup Monday night into Tuesday morning across a large area which includes Alabama. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the evolution of the synoptic pattern, showing a low-amplitude shortwave taking on a negative tilt Monday night to our northwest. This pattern has the look of a classic severe weather outbreak and would support a rapidly deepening surface low tracking toward the Great Lakes with significant pressure falls extending southward into Alabama. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to perhaps 70F, instability appears more than sufficient for deep convection within a very highly sheared environment. Taken at face value, the ECMWF shows semi-discrete supercells capable of producing long-track, significant tornadoes across the northern half of our forecast area on Tuesday morning. The HWO will be updated to include a moderate confidence threat for tornadoes and damaging winds across the entire forecast area. With this threat still around 96 hours out and models subject to change, we will refrain from going all in on the potential for a tornado outbreak.

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55 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

From BMX's AFD for Monday into Tuesday. Very, very bullish. Make a thread in here, or SE?


The shortwave on Sunday night will serve as a primer wave for the next system developing to our west on Monday. A wide area of rich moisture will be lurking near the Gulf Coast, poised to move inland Monday afternoon and evening as wind fields respond to a shortwave entering the Southern Plains. Models are coming into agreement on a potentially dangerous setup Monday night into Tuesday morning across a large area which includes Alabama. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the evolution of the synoptic pattern, showing a low-amplitude shortwave taking on a negative tilt Monday night to our northwest. This pattern has the look of a classic severe weather outbreak and would support a rapidly deepening surface low tracking toward the Great Lakes with significant pressure falls extending southward into Alabama. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to perhaps 70F, instability appears more than sufficient for deep convection within a very highly sheared environment. Taken at face value, the ECMWF shows semi-discrete supercells capable of producing long-track, significant tornadoes across the northern half of our forecast area on Tuesday morning. The HWO will be updated to include a moderate confidence threat for tornadoes and damaging winds across the entire forecast area. With this threat still around 96 hours out and models subject to change, we will refrain from going all in on the potential for a tornado outbreak.

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The people in the SE don’t care unless it’s snow and in Georgia/Carolina. Maybe the best spot is Weather Forecasting/Discussion? Since it crosses multiple subs 

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3 hours ago, SmokeEater said:

From BMX's AFD for Monday into Tuesday. Very, very bullish. Make a thread in here, or SE?


 

I made a thread about the event. It's a couple posts below this topic

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11 hours ago, Chinook said:

Fairly good verification on this day-1 outlook

MS9wK5a.gif

6 more tornadoes surveyed by LCH today too per the PNS. I believe LIX and SHV might have confirmed a few more as well. 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
830 PM CDT Fri Nov 2 2018


...NWS Damage Survey for 10/31/18 and 11/1/18 Tornado Event...

.West Bundick Lake Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      107 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    1.5 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     280 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               OCT 31 2018
Start time:               940 PM CDT
Start location:           10 SE DeRidder/Beauregard/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.7193 / -93.2022

End date:                 OCT 31 2018
End time:                 943 PM CDT
End location:             9 SSE DeRidder/Beauregard/LA
End_lat/lon:              30.7389 / -93.1926

Survey Summary: A tornado snapped several trees along Chester Davis Road,
northeast to Lumas Road.

.Southwest Sugartown Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      104 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    2.6 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     300 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               OCT 31 2018
Start time:               1143 PM CDT
Start location:           6 SW Sugartown/Beauregard/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.8151 / -93.1132

End date:                 OCT 31 2018
End time:                 1146 PM CDT
End location:             4 SSW Sugartown/Beauregard/LA
End_lat/lon:              30.8140 / -93.0702

Survey Summary: A tornado started east of Rutherford Road, and moved
across Vaughn Road, ending near Smyrna Road. Several trees were snapped.

.Oakdale/Turkey Creek Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:      118 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    13.3 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     900 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               NOV 01 2018
Start time:               1217 AM CDT
Start location:           1 S Oakdale/Allen/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.7914 / -92.6606

End date:                 NOV 01 2018
End time:                 1233 AM CDT
End location:             4 NW Turkey Creek/Evangeline/LA
End_lat/lon:              30.9027 / -92.4782

Survey Summary: A strong tornado started south of Highway 10, and as it crossed
the highway it snapped several power poles. The tornado then moved down Cypress
Creek Road, where it snapped numerous trees and power lines. In Evangeline Parish,
it moved from Cypress Creek Road to Cypress Road and Red Lick Road, before
dissipating south of the Rapides Parish line. Many trees and power lines were down.

.Hessmer Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:      122 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    13.6 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     800 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               NOV 01 2018
Start time:               1250 AM CDT
Start location:           2 SE Cheneyville/Rapides/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.9874 / -92.2640

End date:                 NOV 01 2018
End time:                 106 AM CDT
End location:             4 NE Hessmer/Avoyelles/LA
End_lat/lon:              31.0786 / -92.0629

Survey Summary: The tornado started near US Highway 71 near Cheneyville, snapping
several power poles. As it moved northeast, it blew down many trees and power lines.
The most significant damage was to a new home on Bordelon Road, built of steel beams
and metal sheets. A large roll up door was blown in, and picked up an outside AC unit,
tossing it into the garage. The steel beams were bent in three-fourths of the building.
Half of the metal roof was blown off, and what remained shifted several inches. One
exterior wall shifted several inches. Several other homes on Bordelon Street had part
of their roofs removed. Many trees were snapped and power lines were downed. Tree
damage was noted on Highway 115 south of Hessmer, and the tornado dissipated before
it reached Highway 1 in Mansura.

.Russells Landing Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      107 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    9.9 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     350 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               NOV 01 2018
Start time:               113 AM CDT
Start location:           4 ENE Marksville/Avoyelles/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            31.1468 / -91.9918

End date:                 NOV 01 2018
End time:                 127 AM CDT
End location:             14 NE Marksville/Avoyelles/LA
End_lat/lon:              31.2513 / -91.8780

Survey Summary: A tornado started in remote areas east of Marksville, and moved across
Lake Ophelia Wildlife Refuge, where numerous trees were blown down or snapped. At
Russells Landing, many trees were blown down or snapped. One landed on an RV. The
tornado dissipated northeast of that region in the wildlife refuge.

EF Scale:  The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies Tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

And the other:

"Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
241 PM CDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...NWS Damage Survey for 11/01/18 Tornado Event...

.Iowa Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      90 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    0.97 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     75 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               Nov 01 2018
Start time:               1230 AM CDT
Start location:           5 SSW Iowa/Calcasieu/LA
Start lat/lon:            30.1758/-93.0467

End date:                 Nov 01 2018
End time:                 1232 AM CDT
End location:             5 SSW Iowa/Calcasieu/LA
End lat/lon:              30.1660/-93.0349

Survey Summary: A weak tornado formed north of Nick Martone Road
and moved to the southeast. The tornado crossed Nick Martone Road
where it damaged two outbuildings. The tornado then dissipated in
a field south of Nick Martone Road.

EF Scale:  The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies Tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data."

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45 tornadoes have been listed on Wikipedia as confirmed from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. Nearly all of these are listed as tornadoes of Oct. 31 on SPC's page.  About 31 of them were after midnight local time but before 12z, which is the cutoff for the SPC's list. So there you go, not exactly springtime storm chasing, but this does significantly add to the number of tornadoes in 2018. Note: SPC has 62 (unfiltered) on Oct. 31 and 2 (unfiltered) on Nov. 1.

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