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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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Strong Ninos tend to be better farther south, actually. Remember DCA/BWI in 09-10 and NJ/PHL in 87-88. The Deep South had some winter weather in 72-73 while winter was absent further north.

Actually further north there were plenty of episodes of big cold. When a storm happened it always was suppressed (fairly common) or cut inland (less common).  December 15, 1972 tracked dead on the coast. January 7, 1973 and one almost exactly a month later were suppressed, giving Atlanta some rare snow.  While January was slightly above normal there was powerful cold from about January 4 to January 11,  and February was actually below normal. Another very cold shot happened December 16-17, 1972.

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el nino winters with the most and least precipitation...the top three strongest are in the top five for Dec-Mar...1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98...

most from Dec-Feb...

16.04"...2009-10

15.28"...1997-98

15.17"...1972-73

14.92"...1977-78

13.31"...2014-15

least.........................

5.28".....1958-59

5.45".....1979-80

7.05".....1976-77

7.78".....2006-07

7.81".....1991-92

Most Dec-Mar...

26.73"...2009-10

20.33"...1997-98

20.24"...1982-83

18.77"...1972-73

17.91"...1986-87

least.......................

..9.05"...1958-59

10.25"...1965-66

11.04"...1994-95

11.13"...1953-54

11.89"...1991-92

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soi minimums are still behind 1997...

day.....1997...2015 soi minimums...

086...-38.04..........076...-35.90

101...-38.78..........098...-31.15

124...-37.85..........129...-46.94

143...-41.87..........135...-33.15

151...-85.72..........143...-17.75

162...-49.99..........156...-04.71

168...-61.70..........166....10.75

180...-21.54..........177...-48.73

188....02.84..........188....13.48

197...-09.84..........197...-31.46

204...-34.78

233...-33.88

260...-26.63

278...-32.98

308...-56.59

331...-44.58

032...-77.60

093...-52.94

120...-53.83

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soi minimums are still behind 1997...

day.....1997...2015 soi minimums...

086...-38.04..........076...-35.90

101...-38.78..........098...-31.15

124...-37.85..........129...-46.94

143...-41.87..........135...-33.15

151...-85.72..........143...-17.75

162...-49.99..........156...-04.71

168...-61.70..........166....10.75

180...-21.54..........177...-48.73

204...-34.78..........188....13.48

233...-33.88

260...-26.63

278...-32.98

308...-56.59

331...-44.58

032...-77.60

093...-52.94

120...-53.83

I suspect we have more -SOI and WWBs coming up. A cold horseshoe (ssts) has developed around Austrialia and Indonesia which would support more high pressure in that area

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Warmest June Nino 4 reading on record going back to 1950. Second place for

June in Nino 3.4 behind 1997. 3rd and 4th place further east in Nino 3 and

1+2 after 1997 and 1983.

 

Phillip Klotzbach on twitter

 

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/618505835363201024

 

 

 

Strongest preliminary MJO RMM phase for any month surpassing the preliminary record set just back in March.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

 

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Latest WWB was very strong. It's likely to generate another big EKW/EKW reinforcement over the next 2-4 weeks, especially since the trades basically go dead over a big section of the western and central Pacific. Another record strong MJO is helping matters as well.

 

My guess its that it won't be entirely felt at the surface until the middle of August though, so the upper camp might be jumping the gun a bit.

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Latest WWB was very strong. It's likely to generate another big EKW/EKW reinforcement over the next 2-4 weeks, especially since the trades basically go dead over a big section of the western and central Pacific. Another record strong MJO is helping matters as well.

My guess its that it won't be entirely felt at the surface until the middle of August though, so the upper camp might be jumping the gun a bit.

Agreed. I think by the start of September, region 3.4 will be very close if not exceeding +2.0c

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Warmest June Nino 4 reading on record going back to 1950. Second place for

June in Nino 3.4 behind 1997. 3rd and 4th place further east in Nino 3 and

1+2 after 1997 and 1983.

Phillip Klotzbach on twitter

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/618505835363201024

PK.png

Strongest preliminary MJO RMM phase for any month surpassing the preliminary record set just back in March.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

CJPY6orUsAAI9Rc.png

I would suspect with this current kelvin wave, regions 1+2 and 3 are about to warm very dramatically.

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Interesting that it's like the other guidance and not pushing the warmest anomalies into 1+2 like we saw in 1997.

The SST anomaly forecasts all look west of 1997 with significant warming all the way back to

the Central Pacific which was cooler in 1997.

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

98.png

What would that implicate? With the more central Pacific warming

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That the Aleutian low would be further west than 1997 with a more -EPO this time compared to 97-98.

Also notice that the models are maintaining that warm blob of water south of Alaska which was absent

in 97-98. But this is still a very long range forecast and we'll need to see how well it verifies. Plenty

of time to do that between now and November.

The crazy thing is that model is showing anomalies of +3C in region 3.4 and region 3 by December. If correct that would shatter ENSO records

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With a strong nino and negative epo and some atlantic blocking we could see record snowfall somewhere or with no help from the indices we could see a snowless winter from the NYC area south

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With a strong nino and negative epo and some atlantic blocking we could see record snowfall somewhere or with no help from the indices we could see a snowless winter from the NYC area south

Pretty much covered all bases here and I agree. We are heading into a extreme uncharted regime.

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Pretty much covered all bases here and I agree. We are heading into a extreme uncharted regime.

I agree we could be headed for a blockbuster or epic fail. One place that for sure is going to be epic is the mountians

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Well one thing we probably won't have to worry about is an active subtropical jet, we should get several juicy systems this winter. Whether they are mostly liquid or frozen is the question.

As of now it doesn't look like we'll enter the realm of 97-98 and the Pacific pattern is different as well. I think we could see a good mix of rain/snow storms this winter.

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Well one thing we probably won't have to worry about is an active subtropical jet, we should get several juicy systems this winter. Whether they are mostly liquid or frozen is the question.

As of now it doesn't look like we'll enter the realm of 97-98 and the Pacific pattern is different as well. I think we could see a good mix of rain/snow storms this winter.

Ain't looking good for LI?

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Ain't looking good for LI?

You want to be in the mountians this winter. There are going to a lot of marginal setups on the coast at lower elevations. There will be tons of moisture and if youre up high you don't need fresh cold air

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The models seem to be in agreement now that the Nino peaks in December

 

 

The latest IRI mean had a peak in November, with weakening beginning in December. The dynamical average was 1.8c OND and 1.6c NDJ. The July update will be interesting as we're beginning to approach the higher-skill ENSO forecasting period.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

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The latest IRI mean had a peak in November, with weakening beginning in December. The dynamical average was 1.8c OND and 1.6c NDJ. The July update will be interesting as we're beginning to approach the higher-skill ENSO forecasting period.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Yea it looks like the new Euro shows a drop off beginning around or after just after December so as of now, we can assume a OND peak, which is still an early peak for a Nino. If you want a cold/snowy winter you are praying that the record +3.0C peak some models are showing is wrong. If we do in fact have a region 3.4 SST of +3.0C come November, it will be white flag waving time for winter but we still have almost 4 months to go so we shall see...

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The actual trimonthlies on this run peak above +2.0C. It's currently modeling a -EPO winter with a raging STJ

undercutting and plenty of precip along the California Coast through the south and up the East Coast. It follows

the typical El Nino progression of milder in December with a transition to colder later in January and especially

February. 

 

Needless to say, that kind of rapid heat release from such a strong event would result in a wild weather year 

for North America and other parts of the globe.

 

link to all the maps

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

 

 

Its forecast looks very similar to 1982-83, which featured near normal or cooler than normal south of about 39N.

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season5.png

 

 

2m4t99x.png

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I was just going to post the same thing, it looks like all of Canada is a blowtorch

This is quite common in strong El Niños.

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This is quite common in strong El Niños.

Euro NDJ 500 mb seasonal forecast looks fine . 

 

Feb is typically the coldest in POS ENSO years . 

 

Euro looks good , hooks the ridge over the top , and what looks like a 1SD above normal in Canada  at 2 M with  a - EPO  you would slide HP through the lakes and 2 M temps are not warm, but cold here  .  

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I cant post the Euro seasonal here . If someone finds the 500 mb  for NDJ . You will see what it looks like 

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We will probably see quite a few intense nor'easters this upcoming winter if the El Niño stays strong. We only need marginal cold so I'll take my chances with a good storm track.

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I was just going to post the same thing, it looks like all of Canada is a blowtorch

Very Nino like as has already been said. We don't need another Feb 2015 for it to snow. It's all about getting just enough cold air and a decent track.

Maybe it'll end up like 09-10 where nearly every storm had marginal temps.

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