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Possible strong/super El Niño forming?


snowman19
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we're due for a clunker regardless. Outside of 11-12, we've had a hell of a run going back to 08-09

I actually don't think we'll see a clunker this year because the pattern we've been in for a couple years now hasn't changed. Also I don't see a 97/98 Nino in terms of strength and it should be on the downside as we approach winter.

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The daily index just passed +1.5C (strong threshold) for Nino region 3.4

 

I like strong , not super . My peak was always 1.8 . I like how ALL the modeling warms the 3.4 region more than the 1.2 region and ALL the models slope this off once past November .

 

They ALL keep the 3.4 region warmer than the 1.2 region for the winter , so that is not a winter time NEG for our area 

 

And ALL of the modeling keeps the NEG EPO intact . 

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Per the 0Z Euro, volatility is ahead: SOI should drop back to near low -30's 7/2-3 before rapidly rising to the general vicinity of +20 by 7/6-7. Then it is predicted to fall back some but still be around +10 or maybe +teens 7/10-11.

Based on this, 7/1-11 may end up averaging not far from 0...perhaps near -1.

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I like strong , not super . My peak was always 1.8 . I like how ALL the modeling warms the 3.4 region more than the 1.2 region and ALL the models slope this off once past November .

 

They ALL keep the 3.4 region warmer than the 1.2 region for the winter , so that is not a winter time NEG for our area 

 

And ALL of the modeling keeps the NEG EPO intact . 

That's the key IMO.  Need another winter of that and the goods will be delivered yet again.  There was a post in the climate change forum that noted some cooling of the warm waters S of Alaska, let's hope that is temporary since that's a big driver of the -EPO

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That's the key IMO.  Need another winter of that and the goods will be delivered yet again.  There was a post in the climate change forum that noted some cooling of the warm waters S of Alaska, let's hope that is temporary since that's a big driver of the -EPO

globe_cdas1_anom.png

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Strong Ninos tend to be better farther south, actually. Remember DCA/BWI in 09-10 and NJ/PHL in 87-88. The Deep South had some winter weather in 72-73 while winter was absent further north.

Snow may have been absent, but winter certainly wasn't. Besides, many of us would take 09-10 and run (it was obviously progressively worse from south to north)
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Huh? Are you saying who ever lives south of NYC should start worrying?

Still a bit too early for that

Agree, I'd wait to see where we are come November. If there is a super Nino (above +2.0c) at that point, it may be time to worry, but we have almost 5 months to go before that point. What you definitely don't want to see at that point is an east-based Nino like PBGFI said. That would be a worst case scenario
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That Jamstec looks like it's currently on the warm side of the guidance envelope

for the eventual El Nino strength. It was calling for a moderate El Nino last winter

on the June update but a weak one verified.

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2014.gif

The CFS is now showing the strongest July WWB in history, way surpassing anything July of '97 had. The cross equatorial tropical cyclones are just boosting the WWB even more. This is an interesting period coming up
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As long as we have a negative epo that could offset a lack of blocking on the atlantic side, I was talking about the philly and NYC areas being in trouble with a super strong el nino like a 97-98 one which also had limited snow in the dc area.

Actually your 1st post would hold true even for our area.

Tom made a good point away , we will def need to see a NEG AO this time around in combination with a NEG EPO to set up a better back end winter.

Last year was an anomaly POS AO regimes usually correlate to above normal temps for our area . With the 3.4 region above the 1.5 threshold early on we will be hard pressed to find winter here for the first half.

However if we slope off fast enough and the 3.4 region dips below 1.5 as the dynamical models show and are warmer than the eastern region then a back loaded winter is possible.

Lotta "ifs" there .

A NEG EPO alone will not spell a long winter in fact early on Brian is going to yell bust everyday , even as no one is calling for a wire to wire cold winter.

Hurricane season is upon us , all eyes there I guess. .

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Actually your 1st post would hold true even for our area.

Tom made a good point away , we will def need to see a NEG AO this time around in combination with a NEG EPO to set up a better back end winter.

Last year was an anomaly POS AO regimes usually correlate to above normal temps for our area . With the 3.4 region above the 1.5 threshold early on we will be hard pressed to find winter here for the first half.

However if we slope off fast enough and the 3.4 region dips below 1.5 as the dynamical models show and are warmer than the eastern region then a back loaded winter is possible.

Lotta "ifs" there .

A NEG EPO alone will not spell a long winter in fact early on Brian is going to yell bust everyday , even as no one is calling for a wire to wire cold winter.

Hurricane season is upon us , all eyes there I guess. .

Calling bust now.  LOL.   Just taking the law of averages into account, we're due for a dud.  I don't like the fact that the NAO appears to have gone into a long term positive state.   I'm banking on the -EPO saving us yet again this winter and hoping for a quick drop off in the Nino.  Still too early, but this will be interesting to watch unfold.

With regard to Atlantic canes, assuming this strong nino will squelch most storms.

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