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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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It appears we are going to see at the very least a high end moderate, east-based El Niño and a strong to very strong Nino is starting to look more and more possible as we go forward. Just had another extremely massive Kelvin wave event and the surface and subsurface oceanic heat in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is just astounding. Some models have eastern Nino region SSTs spiking to over +2.1C by October, which would push this to "super" status and rival the 1997-1998 El Niño. Thoughts?

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It appears we are going to see at the very least a high end moderate, east-based El Niño and a strong to very strong Nino is starting to look more and more possible as we go forward. Just had another extremely massive Kelvin wave event and the surface and subsurface oceanic heat in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is just astounding. Some models have eastern Nino region SSTs spiking to over +2.1C by October, which would push this to "super" status and rival the 1997-1998 El Niño. Thoughts?

What would happen if this occured and the epo was negative and the pna was positive?

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What would happen if this occured and the epo was negative and the pna was positive?

A strong to very strong El Niño would mean very bad news for cold and snow in the east. All strong Ninos are east-based, as this one is shaping up to be and a strong ENSO event is an overwhelming signal. Meaning that the juiced up Nino related subtropical jet would flood the CONUS with pacific maritime air and would crush any -NAO or -AO, see 1997-1998. That winter actually had -AO and -NAO but it was a snowless blowtorch in the east. Because our weather moves west to east, when there is an overwhelming signal in the Pacific (strong Nino) it "cancels" out the Atlantic and arctic side. California would see epic flooding and insane mountain snows. To answer more directly, all strong Ninos feature persistent +PNA and a -EPO, it's just that the STJ is so strong from all the latent heat release from the Nino related thunderstorms and very warm SSTS that it trumps the other oscillations. Strong Ninos also feature +PDO

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A strong to very strong El Niño would mean very bad news for cold and snow in the east. All strong Ninos are east-based, as this one is shaping up to be and a strong ENSO event is an overwhelming signal. Meaning that the juiced up Nino related subtropical jet would flood the CONUS with pacific maritime air and would crush any -NAO or -AO, see 1997-1998. That winter actually had -AO and -NAO but it was a snowless blowtorch in the east. Because our weather moves west to east, when there is an overwhelming signal in the Pacific (strong Nino) it "cancels" out the Atlantic and arctic side. California would see epic flooding and insane mountain snows. To answer more directly, all strong Ninos feature persistent +PNA and a -EPO, it's just that the STJ is so strong from all the latent heat release from the Nino related thunderstorms and very warm SSTS that it trumps the other oscillations. Strong Ninos also feature +PDO

Not convinced we'll see a strong Nino based on the last few not working out, but as as aside, if we were to get the right combo, you could get a HECS on the east coast given the moisture laden STJ and a well timed cold air source.  The Blizzard of 1983 is a great example of a HECS in an otherwise snowless winter.

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Signs point to a moderate Nino.

Signs also point to a strong Nino as well, in fact the signal became stronger than it was just a month ago and the fact that the PDO is still so strongly positive is just more evidence. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are much, much more favorable than they were just a year ago for a very major El Niño event

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Not convinced we'll see a strong Nino based on the last few not working out, but as as aside, if we were to get the right combo, you could get a HECS on the east coast given the moisture laden STJ and a well timed cold air source. The Blizzard of 1983 is a great example of a HECS in an otherwise snowless winter.

Yes 1982-1983 was an example of a very strong El Niño winter that was by and large very warm and snowless minus that one perfectly timed historic nor'easter/blizzard that barreled up the coast

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Yes 1982-1983 was an example of a very strong El Niño winter that was by and large very warm and snowless minus that one perfectly timed historic nor'easter/blizzard that barreled up the coast

glbSSTSeaInd6(5).gif1982(1).pngDon`t sweat it , yet  . 

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What would happen if this occured and the epo was negative and the pna was positive?

To answer this more specifically, if you look at 82-83, 91-92, and 97-98 winters, they had strong el ninos, with predominately -epo, +pna and +pdo

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A strong to very strong El Niño would mean very bad news for cold and snow in the east. All strong Ninos are east-based, as this one is shaping up to be and a strong ENSO event is an overwhelming signal. Meaning that the juiced up Nino related subtropical jet would flood the CONUS with pacific maritime air and would crush any -NAO or -AO, see 1997-1998. That winter actually had -AO and -NAO but it was a snowless blowtorch in the east. Because our weather moves west to east, when there is an overwhelming signal in the Pacific (strong Nino) it "cancels" out the Atlantic and arctic side. California would see epic flooding and insane mountain snows. To answer more directly, all strong Ninos feature persistent +PNA and a -EPO, it's just that the STJ is so strong from all the latent heat release from the Nino related thunderstorms and very warm SSTS that it trumps the other oscillations. Strong Ninos also feature +PDO

An El Niño doesn't have to be east based to be strong. 09-10 was borderline strong and was west based. California definitely needs as strong an El Niño as possible. The South is getting absolutely drenched, so the effects are being felt where I am.

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An El Niño doesn't have to be east based to be strong. 09-10 was borderline strong and was west based. California definitely needs as strong an El Niño as possible. The South is getting absolutely drenched, so the effects are being felt where I am.

 

 

Was going to post this as well. The idea that all strong Nino's are east-based is a fallacy. In addition to 2009-10, 1957-58, and 1965-66 were also central-west based strong El Nino events.

 

I see some of the same strong-super Nino arguments being utilized as last spring. Last spring we had massive sub surface warmth as well, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will persist and surface (which it didn't). The CFS, a highly reactionary, quite frankly, poor model for ENSO forecasting, had a super Nino progged last spring as well.

 

The modality and/or magnitude of the PDO doesn't matter much either. Strongly positive PDO's have occurred in weak Nino's (e.g., 76-77), and the very strong west based Nino of 65-66 actually featured a negative PDO signal.

 

We need to cross the "spring forecast barrier" over the next month or so before I begin seriously entertaining the idea of a strong/super Nino. Statistically since 1950, double Nino's tend to be weak or moderate in intensity. If you go back further into the early part of the 20th century, there were some strong Nino's immediately following weak Nino's, however.

 

We are seeing persistent, robust westerly wind bursts this spring, in conjunction w/ pulses of strongly negative SOI. This didn't really occur last spring, and so, no doubt we are in a more Nino-like state atmospherically than 12 months ago. I would say it's pretty much a lock that we have at least a weak El Nino for the autumn/winter, and probably moderate El Nino. The latest set of statistical models are averaging around a 0.8c region 3.4 peak and the dynamical models averaging around 1.2-1.3c or so. I tend to favor the latter outcome at this juncture.

 

I do believe the background -PDO signal that we transitioned into in 2007 has some influence on limiting the frequency and separation of strong +ENSO events. The -PDO era of the late 40s-late 70s had more widely spaced strong Nino's (averaging about 7 years apart) than the +PDO cycle of the 80s-early 2000s. Given we had a strong Nino only 5 years ago in 2010, I find it to be less likely that we have a strong Nino this year.

 

We'll see how it goes, but I'd weight the percentages as follows right now:

 

Neutral: 5%

Warm-Neutral: 10%

Weak Nino: 20%

Moderate Nino: 40%

Strong Nino: 20%

"Super" Nino (> +2.0c in region 3.4): 5%

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if you look at the mei index from 1871 the only analogs that had a strong el nino after a weak one were 1905-06...1914-15...1930-31...1940-41...two others are 1877-78 and 1888-89 and both followed very weak positive years...this is a small sample size and a strong el nino remains to be seen...

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if you look at the mei index from 1871 the only analogs that had a strong el nino after a weak one were 1905-06...1914-15...1930-31...1940-41...two others are 1877-78 and 1888-89 and both followed very weak positive years...this is a small sample size and a strong el nino remains to be seen...

Thanks for the info, I was wondering the same thing myself

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An El Niño doesn't have to be east based to be strong. 09-10 was borderline strong and was west based. California definitely needs as strong an El Niño as possible. The South is getting absolutely drenched, so the effects are being felt where I am.

The "super" ones have been east-based and so far this developing event is east based and the models continue to show it staying east based. It transitioned east from the "modoki" Nino we saw this past winter

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So in other words this points to a warm wet winter?

We'll know sometime in the summer. But signs are pointing to a moderate or Strong el niño. You would want a strong el Niño for us to torch and alot of us would want a moderate el niño for snow

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The "super" ones have been east-based and so far this developing event is east based and the models continue to show it staying east based. It transitioned east from the "modoki" Nino we saw this past winter

 

East-based doesn't imply a super Nino's coming either. There have been plenty of east based weak to moderate El Nino's, and I'm not convinced this one will remain east based. ENSO regions 1+2 undergo a significant amount of variance, particularly at this time of year. So current conditions have little relevance as far as the eventual maturity of this +ENSO event. And as I noted about model guidance - we need to wait at least another month before we start taking projections more seriously. It's difficult to discern what's going to happen in the formation stage of the Nino.

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So in other words this points to a warm wet winter?

 

 

No, don't try to box in any guarantees, as that rarely works. The only outcome that would probably guarantee a warm/wet winter is a super Nino along the lines of 97-98, or possibly 82-83/72-73. Strong Nino's like 57-58, 65-66, and 09-10 still ended up being fairly chilly/snowy winters in much of the Eastern US. So if you're rooting for a warm/wet winter, root for a > +2.0c region 3.4 trimonthly peak. Warm/wet moderate Nino winters can occur, but the real determining factor is high latitude blocking. Strong blocking can override the ENSO signal, barring a super Nino. Likewise, no blocking in an El Nino of any magnitude usually spells disaster for snow lovers.

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So in other words this points to a warm wet winter?

not necessarily...using mei data from 1868 and jma data from 1871 show a few years that had a strong el nino after a weak one...

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

the JMA has 1877-78, 1888-89 and 1896-97 as a second year stronger el nino...mei data has 1905-06, 1914-15, 1930-31 and 1940-41...1940-41 was a cold and snowy winter...1877-78 wasn't...1896-97 was snowy and 1888-89 not...1905-06 wasn't...1930-31 wasn't...1914-15 was average...

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We'll know sometime in the summer. But signs are pointing to a moderate or Strong el niño. You would want a strong el Niño for us to torch and alot of us would want a moderate el niño for snow

 

 

As I just posted, these generalizations don't work 95% of the time. The real key in our area is high latitude blocking. We've had warm weak El Nino winters and cold/snowy strong El Nino winters, and vice versa. Depends upon blocking. If region 3.4 peaks above +2.0c; however, we can pretty much write off a cool/snowy winter.

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As I just posted, these generalizations don't work 95% of the time. The real key in our area is high latitude blocking. We've had warm weak El Nino winters and cold/snowy strong El Nino winters, and vice versa. Depends upon blocking. If region 3.4 peaks above +2.0c; however, we can pretty much write off a cool/snowy winter.

Understood. thanks for the info.

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We'll know sometime in the summer. But signs are pointing to a moderate or Strong el niño. You would want a strong el Niño for us to torch and alot of us would want a moderate el niño for snow

It's really not that simple.

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East-based doesn't imply a super Nino's coming either. There have been plenty of east based weak to moderate El Nino's, and I'm not convinced this one will remain east based. ENSO regions 1+2 undergo a significant amount of variance, particularly at this time of year. So current conditions have little relevance as far as the eventual maturity of this +ENSO event. And as I noted about model guidance - we need to wait at least another month before we start taking projections more seriously. It's difficult to discern what's going to happen in the formation stage of the Nino.

Yes, whether or not it's still east based come October is anyone's guess the models say it will be but who knows

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As I just posted, these generalizations don't work 95% of the time. The real key in our area is high latitude blocking. We've had warm weak El Nino winters and cold/snowy strong El Nino winters, and vice versa. Depends upon blocking. If region 3.4 peaks above +2.0c; however, we can pretty much write off a cool/snowy winter.

Agreed, if we have a very strong or "super" El Niño in place come October/November, winter will be over before it starts if you are looking for cold and snowy

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