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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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Some of the new long range model runs are spiking region 3.4 to +2.2C come December. If that's correct, this El Niño would rival '97-'98

 

 

The accuracy of those models is such that I would take their projections with an enormous grain of salt. Models are notorious for being highly reactionary and overblown at this time of year.

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The IRI dynamical multimodel updates in May since 2002 have been on the conservative side for fully developed El Ninos.

But I have no idea if this relationship will hold again when we get the update from IRI next week. They were

also an older generation of models and our last legit event was in 09-10. Confidence generally improves

with each forecast from June into the early fall. Much of what happens will depend on the actual intensity

of the WWB pattern from summer into fall.

IRI multimodel forecast in May and verification

May...2009.....+1.0... verification....+1.6

May...2006.....+0.4....verification.....+1.0

May...2002.....+0.8....verification.....+1.3

If +2.2C is conservative and turns out too low, based on those may stats, we would be talking historic super El Niño

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The IRI dynamical multimodel updates in May since 2002 have been on the conservative side for fully developed El Ninos.

But I have no idea if this relationship will hold again when we get the update from IRI next week. They were

also an older generation of models and our last legit event was in 09-10. Confidence generally improves

with each forecast from June into the early fall. Much of what happens will depend on the actual intensity

of the WWB pattern from summer into fall. Last May wasn't too bad, but the failure of the trades to fully

relax may have kept the forecast closer than normal. I guess this is why more forecasters feel comfortable

waiting to see how things progress over the summer before making a more skilled guess.

 

IRI multimodel forecast  in May and verification

 

May...2009.....+1.0... verification....+1.6

May...2006.....+0.4....verification.....+1.0

May...2002.....+0.8....verification.....+1.3

May...2014.....+0.9....verification.... +0.7

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

 

 

I was specifically referring to the ECMWF and CFS plumes. The dynamical, and particularly the statistical guidance, have been the most accurate over the past several years.

 

Right now, I'm leaning toward a trimonthly 3.4 peak of around 1.3C.

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If +2.2C is conservative and turns out too low, based on those may stats, we would be talking historic super El Niño

 

 

Virtually none of the dynamical or statistical guidance projects a > +2.0c Nino right now:

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

 

The dynamical average peak is near 1.3-1.4 while statistical is 0.9. All models combined 1.1c.

 

 

I think the all models combined average could be a bit conservative; however, the only guidance I've seen with members into the outlandish territory are some of the CFS and ECMWF members.

 

It seems like we go through this cycle of "super Nino/Nina" hype/hysteria every time there's a robust ENSO event. The probability of a super ENSO event occurring (could subjectively define as equal or greater than +2.0c 3.4 peak), is about 3%, using 1950-2015 data.

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Virtually none of the dynamical or statistical guidance projects a > +2.0c Nino right now:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

The dynamical average peak is near 1.3-1.4 while statistical is 0.9. All models combined 1.1c.

I think the all models combined average could be a bit conservative; however, the only guidance I've seen with members into the outlandish territory are some of the CFS and ECMWF members.

It seems like we go through this cycle of "super Nino/Nina" hype/hysteria every time there's a robust ENSO event. The probability of a super ENSO event occurring (could subjectively define as equal or greater than +2.0c 3.4 peak), is about 3%, using 1950-2015 data.

While I agree that right now the chances for a "super" El Niño are low, I think the prospect of a solid strong El Niño (above +1.5C) is becoming more and more likely based on the progression so far

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last year the mei shot up in the Apr/May period and then leveled off...most of the second year el nino's peaked before the next Summer...

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The good thing about having a robust El Niño in place, driving the pattern is that the chances for a sustained heat wave in the east are diminished

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I think a lot of the lack of precip this far northeast has been poor timing and poor luck. The southeast ridge has been quite strong and high pressure has been holding strong East of Maine for weeks now. If we can get the Bermuda ridge to relax some over the next few weeks, that should allow the jet to become better aligned with our region. We haven't been missing by much, with PA receiving steady precip while we remain hard pressed to get much of anything. 

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I think a lot of the lack of precip this far northeast has been poor timing and poor luck. The southeast ridge has been quite strong and high pressure has been holding strong East of Maine for weeks now. If we can get the Bermuda ridge to relax some over the next few weeks, that should allow the jet to become better aligned with our region. We haven't been missing by much, with PA receiving steady precip while we remain hard pressed to get much of anything.

Yes we haven't been missing by much. Just read HM on twitter, he thinks this Nino is going to be a strong one, said the atmosphere and tropical Pacific are very coupled this year, also mentioned similarities to 1997

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New kelvin wave activity is developing once again in the tropical pacific. And the wwb's continue. We may be about to see a big uptick in the strength of this El Niño come June, especially if this new kelvin wave is as strong as the last one

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I'm actually interested to see what a record Nino will do. We've already seen some effects with the record high ACE for the west Pacific and the strong STJ affecting the plains down into Texas.

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I'm actually interested to see what a record Nino will do. We've already seen some effects with the record high ACE for the west Pacific and the strong STJ affecting the plains down into Texas.

El Nino normally helps the E Pac hurricane season more than anywhere else-the warmer water in the eastern Pacific generates more convection and more hurricanes.

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The very strong westerly wind burst pattern this spring is unlike anything that we have seen in the 2000's so far.

I will update this chart in June for MAM when the May wind data becomes available.

wnd.png

This is the strongest persistent WWB pattern we've seen since 1997

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I'm actually interested to see what a record Nino will do. We've already seen some effects with the record high ACE for the west Pacific and the strong STJ affecting the plains down into Texas.

I don't know about a record El Nino, but a solid strong (above +1.5C) event is becoming more likely by the day at the moment, IMO

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Still think we could torch if we get a strong nino and +NAO

Yes but a Nino located further west could really change things if the Pacific pattern stays the same as last winter.

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Wow, all of Canada and Alaska are above normal and it suggests +nao on the Atlantic side

 

 

That suggests a strong west based -NAO actually given the temp projections. Obviously, far out there so it doesn't mean much yet. Interesting to see the JAMSTEC intensify this Nino. Will see what the new set of IRI models show this month.

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That suggests a strong west based -NAO actually given the temp projections. Obviously, far out there so it doesn't mean much yet. Interesting to see the JAMSTEC intensify this Nino. Will see what the new set of IRI models show this month.

That map is showing Greenland below normal, wouldn't Greenland be above normal with -NAO?

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2.0c in region 3.4 seems to be the cut-off in terms of super Nino / strong Nino as far as impacts to the resultant USA winter weather pattern. There was a significant difference between the Nino's of 1957-58 and 1965-66 which peaked at 1.8c and 1.9c respectively, and years like 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, which all peaked at 2.0c or greater in 3.4. It seems that once we eclipse 2.0c in 3.4, the Nino overwhelms the mid latitude pattern, and high latitude blocking doesn't have as much of an impact. The NAO/AO were actually on the negative side for 97-98, but the STJ was so incredibly powerful that it torched the boundary layer.

 

57-58/65-66 Strong Nino's at 1.8/1.9c:  (other strong Nino's such as 87-88 and 09-10 would only enhance the below composite):

 

206hm3r.png

 

 

72/82/97 Super Nino's at 2.0c or greater:

 

Torch across the northern tier and cooler due to heightened pcpn across the sern tier.

 

 

2nhn4p1.png

 

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