Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,338
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    whetherphl
    Newest Member
    whetherphl
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
eekuasepinniW

NNE Winter: just can't compete with Maple Hollow.

Recommended Posts

Nice gullywasher in CON just passed. My Beaufort estimate is a peak of 7"/hr.

 

Right in line with dual-pol instantaneous rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I definitely see a trend in my data for less liquid in the midwinter months relative to the rest of the year, but those specific peaks in June and October are very interesting.  Is that the way it is for all of New England, or at least NNE?

 

My data have another local maximum in December, where total liquid is right up there with the summer months – December is averaging nearly twice the liquid of January and February at this point.  That’s part of why it seems frustrating the way these past couple of Decembers have come in so low on snowfall; there seems to be so much potential for snow in December based on all that liquid, and if season snowfall gets behind at that point, it can be hard to make up ground.

 

My records, even going into year 18 at my current residence, are too short to avoid small sample size issues.  When I lived in northern Maine we saw a more distinct winter minimum, though less so in my time there (1976-85)than shown for CAR.  That region is more solidly continental than is the foothills, of course.  Not sure if the formatting will remain readable, but here are some monthly precip averages.  From left to right they are:

--Home (New Sharon), June 1998 thru May 2015

--Farmington coop, 1981-2010

--Farmington coop, 1893 -May 2015

--Gardiner, Mane, Nov 1986-April 1998

--Fort Kent, Jan 1976-Sept 1985

 

.............NS......Farm30...Farmall...Gard...Ft.Kent

JAN......2.94.......3.39........3.31.......4.44.....2.94

FEB.....2.86.......2.95........3.03.......2.95.....2.55

MAR....3.73.......4.00........3.82.......4.62.....3.25

APR.....4.09.......4.27........3.81.......4.42.....3.33

MAY.....4.21.......4.21........3.77.......3.80.....3.51

JUN......5.51.......4.93........4.14.......3.35.....3.34

JUL......4.02.......3.65........3.68.......3.22.....3.63

AUG.....4.07......3.96........3.79........3.30.....4.41  (6" from Belle is most of this bulge.)

SEP.....3.79.......3.76........3.67.......4.56.....3.37

OCT....5.60.......4.69........4.03........3.87....3.33

NOV....4.46.......4.75........4.25........5.05.....3.57

DEC....4.42.......3.95........3.92........4.03.....3.92

 

Year..49.71.....48.37.......45.21.....47.60....41.15

 

The June mini-max shows up even in the 120+ year record at Farmington, though it's muted.  However, it's not apparent in nearly 23 years record at Ft.Kent and Gardiner.  Fort Kent has the characteristic summer maximum of fully continental climate (though CAR's much longer record shows it more clearly), while the other locations have the autumn maximum typical of a "tempered" continental where coastal storms have more impact. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, just had a great severe thunderstorm chase.  The cell that is now tornado warned passed 5 miles to my north.  Intersected it just south of the Plymouth NH traffic circle west of Plymouth.  Extremely heavy rain, lightning and quarter size hail.  Head out of it to the southwest and looking back it did look like a funnel cloud to my northeast but a ridge obscured the base of it.  I would have not called it in as i did not have a good enough view to confirm but it was quite a storm.  Not too much wind.  I can say that with so many layers of clouds moving so many ways unless you are very well trained you would not be able to tell a funnel cloud from scud and everything else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, just had a great severe thunderstorm chase.  The cell that is now tornado warned passed 5 miles to my north.  Intersected it just south of the Plymouth NH traffic circle west of Plymouth.  Extremely heavy rain, lightning and quarter size hail.  Head out of it to the southwest and looking back it did look like a funnel cloud to my northeast but a ridge obscured the base of it.  I would have not called it in as i did not have a good enough view to confirm but it was quite a storm.  Not too much wind.  I can say that with so many layers of clouds moving so many ways unless you are very well trained you would not be able to tell a funnel cloud from scud and everything else.

 

Wow awesome! Pics?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow awesome! Pics?!

Eyewall the road I was on goes through a valley with trees on both sides.  I just couldn't find a spot to get a shot of the storm base.  When I was in the cell and it was hailing like crazy I did put the camera on video mode and have a fairly good video of hail but Im too lazy to put it up.  Hail bouncing off the car is not very exciting.  This area of NH seems more forested than your area.  Lots of your shots seem to have farmed fields.  Here it's more wooded ridgelines as I drive around.  By the way nice shots of the NL last night.  I always seem to find out after the fact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No worries and I understand and yes I intentionally target farm fields. Thank you the NL were amazing last night

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty cool time lapse from my friends place on Black Cat Island as that Tornado Warned Cell went by.  If you look closely left side of the screen you can see some circulation on the water.  He said he watched a 300' area start rotating on the water for a little while.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0.75" yesterday, Severe fail as expected, Looks like its going to be a stellar day out today 68/56°F right now, Look to hit 80 for the first time in 10 days or so

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 He said he watched a 300' area start rotating on the water for a little while.

Keep in mind this is the same guy that has his station set to upload exaggerated wind data and also claims this is his 3rd "hit" from something tornadic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has anyone been able to confirm his data?

He openly admits to using a wind correction factor which I figured out was 1.2x.  It's pretty obvious since the VP2 can't report tenths of a MPH.

 

IIRC, at one point several years ago he had an insane rain rate with gusty wind and deduced a waterspout skimming over the island dropped water in his rain gauge, rather than something logical like a bit of leaf temporarily causing a clog until water pressure pushed it through.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He openly admits to using a wind correction factor which I figured out was 1.2x

 

IIRC, at one point several years ago he had an insane rain rate with gusty wind and deduced a waterspout skimming over the island dropped water in his rain gauge, rather than something logical like a bit of leaf temporarily causing a clog until water pressure pushed it through.

 

Hmm, Makes it difficult to take his data or his obs seriously if that is the case then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it hasn't been wet enough...lets throw in another of brief heavy showers.

 

June_24a_zpsovf5wgzx.gif

 

But we are in a drought in the NE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My records, even going into year 18 at my current residence, are too short to avoid small sample size issues.  When I lived in northern Maine we saw a more distinct winter minimum, though less so in my time there (1976-85)than shown for CAR.  That region is more solidly continental than is the foothills, of course.  Not sure if the formatting will remain readable, but here are some monthly precip averages.  From left to right they are:

--Home (New Sharon), June 1998 thru May 2015

--Farmington coop, 1981-2010

--Farmington coop, 1893 -May 2015

--Gardiner, Mane, Nov 1986-April 1998

--Fort Kent, Jan 1976-Sept 1985

 

.............NS......Farm30...Farmall...Gard...Ft.Kent

JAN......2.94.......3.39........3.31.......4.44.....2.94

FEB.....2.86.......2.95........3.03.......2.95.....2.55

MAR....3.73.......4.00........3.82.......4.62.....3.25

APR.....4.09.......4.27........3.81.......4.42.....3.33

MAY.....4.21.......4.21........3.77.......3.80.....3.51

JUN......5.51.......4.93........4.14.......3.35.....3.34

JUL......4.02.......3.65........3.68.......3.22.....3.63

AUG.....4.07......3.96........3.79........3.30.....4.41  (6" from Belle is most of this bulge.)

SEP.....3.79.......3.76........3.67.......4.56.....3.37

OCT....5.60.......4.69........4.03........3.87....3.33

NOV....4.46.......4.75........4.25........5.05.....3.57

DEC....4.42.......3.95........3.92........4.03.....3.92

 

Year..49.71.....48.37.......45.21.....47.60....41.15

 

The June mini-max shows up even in the 120+ year record at Farmington, though it's muted.  However, it's not apparent in nearly 23 years record at Ft.Kent and Gardiner.  Fort Kent has the characteristic summer maximum of fully continental climate (though CAR's much longer record shows it more clearly), while the other locations have the autumn maximum typical of a "tempered" continental where coastal storms have more impact.

Meant to post my 9yr averages when this convo was originally ongoing...

JAN 2.95"

FEB 3.44"

MAR 3.42"

APR 3.68"

MAY 3.12"

JUN 4.69"

JUL 5.92"

AUG 4.40"

SEP 3.86"

OCT 4.89"

NOV 3.49"

DEC 4.58"

ANN 49.31" (way above normal)

So definitely a June/July and Oct peak here as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it hasn't been wet enough...lets throw in another of brief heavy showers.

 

I knew we had a small chance for rain last night, but after the great weather yesterday, my wife was definitely surprised when she saw that it was raining.  That rain didn’t come in until we were well into the evening though, so I did get to use our window of dryness to finish mowing the lawn.

 

But we are in a drought in the NE

 

I guess getting our brief rains last night is par for the course in one of these harsh, New England droughts though.  When you only get a measly 10 inches of rain a month, you have to baby those plants and grasses that aren’t drought tolerant.  I just heard from Mark Breen on the radio that there may be another system coming in for the second half of the weekend with an additional inch or more of rain, so this June may be trying to make a run at the one from two seasons ago with regard to total liquid.  These storms are helping this year’s liquid get closer and closer to catching back up to average though – according to my data, just a couple more inches by the end of the month would get us there for our site.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I knew we had a small chance for rain last night, but after the great weather yesterday, my wife was definitely surprised when she saw that it was raining. That rain didn’t come in until we were well into the evening though, so I did get to use our window of dryness to finish mowing the lawn.

I guess getting our brief rains last night is par for the course in one of these harsh, New England droughts though. When you only get a measly 10 inches of rain a month, you have to baby those plants and grasses that aren’t drought tolerant. I just heard from Mark Breen on the radio that there may be another system coming in for the second half of the weekend with an additional inch or more of rain, so this June may be trying to make a run at the one from two seasons ago with regard to total liquid. These storms are helping this year’s liquid get closer and closer to catching back up to average though – according to my data, just a couple more inches by the end of the month would get us there for our site.

Yes, Sunday is looking like a washout up here with heavy rain, 0.75" or better and we will be well over 3" on the month for here

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it hasn't been wet enough...lets throw in another of brief heavy showers.

 

June_24a_zpsovf5wgzx.gif

 

Had a pretty good rain squall and shelf cloud with it coming down the CPV.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0.07 inches overnight, giving me 8.00 inches for the month of June.  More coming this weekend.  I think 9 inches for June is within reach.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you only get a measly 10 inches of rain a month, you have to baby those plants and grasses that aren’t drought tolerant. I just heard from Mark Breen on the radio that there may be another system coming in for the second half of the weekend with an additional inch or more of rain, so this June may be trying to make a run at the one from two seasons ago with regard to total liquid. These storms are helping this year’s liquid get closer and closer to catching back up to average though – according to my data, just a couple more inches by the end of the month would get us there for our site.[/size]

Mount Mansfield has already passed the total from the very wet June 2013, with 14.16".

We'll go for the all-time June record by Tuesday evening which is 15.28" back in 1998.

Judging by forecasts it will be close with 1"+ of rain coming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×