SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The weather can't get better than this. It should end up being around 79 or so with light winds and no humidity! Amazing day go out there and enjoy it, for the rest of us we'll enjoy it indoors as we have to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 models now only brush the carolinas with the subtropical low as it sharply recurves out to sea Funny, the 00z Euro actually has some rain for the area associated with that system. Granted it's not much but it's something. Actually upon further review, none of the globals recurve the TC out to sea, they all rain it out over the Carolinas. Terrible post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Most of those tracks are well east. Not sure where you are seeing a rainy solution or us or anyone outside of SE VA or Eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Most of those tracks are well east. Not sure where you are seeing a rainy solution or us or anyone outside of SE VA or Eastern NC Those models are useless until the system actually forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Those models are useless until the system actually forms. with a big ridge over us until that cold front gets here next Tue/Wed, I don't see how we see any moisture. Other than some back door issues Sat (especially for eastern sections) looks warm and dry through next Tue IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 with a big ridge over us until that cold front gets here next Tue/Wed, I don't see how we see any moisture. Other than some back door issues Sat (especially for eastern sections) looks warm and dry through next Tue IMO I'm not talking about a rainy solution for this area. You said that the models rapidly recurve this system OTS and that's not true. None of the globals do this. All of the Globals give the Carolina coast at least 1-3" of rain with 5"+ amounts less than 100 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm not talking about a rainy solution for this area. You said that the models rapidly recurve this system OTS and that's not true. None of the globals do this. All of the Globals give the Carolina coast at least 1-3" of rain with 5"+ amounts less than 100 miles offshore. I'm on board with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm on board with that. I just think that the models are underestimating the amount of light rain or showers that will be coming North with a stalled out decaying TC over the Mid-Atlantic. While I don't expect pouring rain, I don't expect crystal clear blue skies either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 If we can extend the dry streak beyond mid month, then we have a shot at a beautiful over 2 temperature departure under 2 inches of rain May. Over 2 under 2 Mays in NYC since 1950 2007....+2.7....1.88 1993....+3.0....1.56 1986....+3.5....1.68 1977....+2.7....1.71 1965....+4.0....1.58 1964....+3.0....0.57 1959....+4.5....1.33 I remember tracking the weather in May 1964 and 1965...both summers were on the cool side with the hottest part from late June to late July...record cold in August...both years had 90 degree heat two days late in May...the drought in 1965 was way worse than what we have today...It was as bad as California's drought going on now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I just think that the models are underestimating the amount of light rain or showers that will be coming North with a stalled out decaying TC over the Mid-Atlantic. While I don't expect pouring rain, I don't expect crystal clear blue skies either. it will barely be much of anything if it makes it to our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I remember tracking the weather in May 1964 and 1965...both summers were on the cool side with the hottest part from late June to late July...record cold in August...both years had 90 degree heat two days late in May...the drought in 1965 was way worse than what we have today...It was as bad as California's drought going on now...... I can still remember the famous mid July heatwave in 1977 with the blackout. Outside of that memorable 9 day heatwave the summer was very comfortable. NYC June ......1977...-1.4 July .......1977...+2.4...7/13-7/21....+9.5....93...92...96...98...97..100...102..92...104 August ...1977....+0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I can still remember the famous mid July heatwave in 1977 with the blackout. Outside of that memorable 9 day heatwave the summer was very comfortable. NYC June ......1977...-1.4 July .......1977...+2.4...7/13-7/21....+9.5....93...92...96...98...97..100...102..92...104 August ...1977....+0.8 What's with the 102 92 104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 What's with the 102 92 104 That was the second to last 3 100+ degree days so close together for NYC before the foliage issues after the mid 90's. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/100DegreeDays.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Bluewave is killing it... Looks dry for the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Bluewave is killing it... Looks dry for the next few weeks I wish we could get some rain. The ground is extremely dry. I had to soak it so I could turn it over with a pitchfork, so I could plant some vegetables today. It was like trying to stick a pitchfork into a rock before I soaked it. Boy do we need rain, but none in sight as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I wish we could get some rain. The ground is extremely dry. I had to soak it so I could turn it over with a pitchfork, so I could plant some vegetables today. It was like trying to stick a pitchfork into a rock before I soaked it. Boy do we need rain, but none in sight as you mentioned.You gotta love the clay soil of Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Temp. 52, Dew point 52. Avg water temp from the 3 local buoys 52. Yup, we have fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 And just like that it's sunny sky's as soon as you get to Jamaica (queens that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 fog quickly burned off here, already up to 65 - models showing the subtropical storm possibly robbing the front next Tue of moisture-we could go another week with little to no rain around here. Can we get it to a month??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Very warm week continues. NYC now at +7.1 for the month of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 +7 departures for May finally starting to increase ocean temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Backdoor cold front passing through eastern mass and CT right now. Will it get hung up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 D0 conditions spread across the area on the May 7th update. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Backdoor cold front passing through eastern mass and CT right now. Will it get hung up? they often end up further SW than progged. I'd bet we're all in it for awhile tomorrow....especially NE sections of the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 they often end up further SW than progged. I'd bet we're all in it for awhile tomorrow....especially NE sections of the subforum Hopefully it dont cool off too dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Just for fun, and because we really have nothing else to talk about First look at Memorial Day weekend on the GFS It will be interesting to see just how far off this prog ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Just for fun, and because we really have nothing else to talk about First look at Memorial Day weekend on the GFS It will be interesting to see just how far off this prog ends up being. Thats rather chilly for that time of year. That would suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Hopefully it dont cool off too dramatically. We'll still see 70F so I don't see the big deal. We're currently at +5 to +7 for the month, I would welcome some seasonable temps. The dry/early heat combo isn't good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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