bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The 12z Euro came in a little cooler than 0z for Friday as the warm front stalls out nearby due to the very strong Newfoundland high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 These BD fronts are always amazing in how chilly things get. It's only 42 right now and it's been 43-45F all day. April sun means nothing when you have a very cold ocean and a strong NE flow this time of year. Light showers have also developed over the area causing temps to lower slightly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 These BD fronts are always amazing in how chilly things get. It's only 42 right now and it's been 43-45F all day. April sun means nothing when you have a very cold ocean and a strong NE flow this time of year. Light showers have also developed over the area causing temps to lower slightly more. it's as nasty as it gets this time of year. Temps have indeed gone nowhere and the dry stable wedge of air is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The 12z Euro came in a little cooler than 0z for Friday as the warm front stalls out nearby due to the very strong Newfoundland high. GZ_PN_048_0000.gif the bend in the isobars near us looks more like a lee trof than the warm front. winds are SSW up into new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Wow, down to 38F with mist and a sub freezing wind chill here. Nastier than a lot of winter days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 the bend in the isobars near us looks more like a lee trof than the warm front. winds are SSW up into new england Yeah, the bend is acting like a defacto warm front as it extends from NYC ENE into the Sound. If that high was weaker and further NE we would be talking about an easy first 80 from Newark to maybe NYC with more sun under those toasty 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Dry air being invected here from the NE, so doubt much gets in here outside of some sprinkles, light showers like the RGEM shows...what looked to be a rainy week is turning into a .25-.50 grand total. (which is fine by me-need to dry things out) couldn't even get that-dry as a bone and Upton's mainly dry through tomorrow PM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 So much for the wet period..just had some light rain for an hour last night and thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 So much for the wet period..just had some light rain for an hour last night and thats it Glorious weather by all accounts, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 0z models trended cooler for Friday as that bend in the isobars acting as a warm front gets stuck just south of the Driscoll Bridge. We see this happen quite a bit in the spring when a strong high is present to our NE near the Canadian Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 38 and cloudy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 tonight should be a slam dunk for dense fog. nighttime warm front in early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 It's amazing, flood watches a few hundred miles to our West for several inches of rain and we've basically gotten nothing. It's amazing how the dry air continues to eat away at the convection as it tries to cross the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 12z euro continues the slower trend w/ the warm front. Now has mid 50s in NYC through 1pm Friday. Low 50s to the NE of there. Forecast highs are now mid 60s for EWR, and low 60s for LGA/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Looks like NYC has a shot at a rare April 15th or later first 70 of spring. It would be only the 6th time in NYC since 1980. Too bad we couldn't get the bonus blizzard or snowstorm of 1982 and 2003 as a package deal. 2003...4-15* 1993....4-19* 1984...4-26* 1983...4-23* 1982....4-16* What's the latest date ever? I had a feeling the cold dry air is so intense it would screw up the warm front. I'll be down in AC tomorrow where it should easily hit 70. I have a feeling it doesn't crack 60 NE of the city and central jersey hits the low 70s. Watch a nice squall line come at us tomorrow only to fizzle out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 What's the latest date ever? I had a feeling the cold dry air is so intense it would screw up the warm front. I'll be down in AC tomorrow where it should easily hit 70. I have a feeling it doesn't crack 60 NE of the city and central jersey hits the low 70s. Watch a nice squall line come a us tomorrow only to fizzle out I will have to look the latest date up, but maybe Uncle already knows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I will have to look the latest date up, but maybe Uncle already knows it. early May 1940...the 2nd I think?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 early May 1940...the 2nd I think?... Interesting. That was also a very strong +PDO year. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Interesting. That was also a very strong +PDO year. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest similar enso that year also... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 I wouldn't be expecting the warm front to make it much past Rt. 78. Friday still has a lot of clouds to deal with which will keep temps down and then the cold front crosses the area later in the day bringing one last chance of significant rain. Down in Philly, CNJ and SNJ is a different story. Think up here we struggle to get to 65. 12z euro continues the slower trend w/ the warm front. Now has mid 50s in NYC through 1pm Friday. Low 50s to the NE of there. Forecast highs are now mid 60s for EWR, and low 60s for LGA/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 So much for the wet period..just had some light rain for an hour last night and thats it So much for your warm period. Maybe you crack 70F tomorrow, and it's going to come at the expense of lots of clouds, fog and some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 The 18z HRRR has the convection currently over Western PA making it here after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I too have yet to hit the big 70, and I might have to wait until week. As for NYC, they're growing closer to the April 15th mark, and might actually make it. Very chilly and raw day again with the high hovering around 40°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm watch into Western PA. HRRR still looking good for some heavier showers with embedded thunder overnight. I will settle for anything at this point to end this bore fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 42.8/40 here in Dobbs Ferry with ENE winds. What a terrible day, high of 45.7F downtown after a low of 34.9F. About 15 degrees below average for the past two days. Yesterday had a high of only 43.3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Incoming from Western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Incoming from Western PA That will weaken dramatically as it both crosses the Apps and encounters much more stable marine air locked in with ENE/NE winds. Temperatures are 30F colder in NYC than in western PA and wind direction is completely unfavorable. You can forget about anything but light rain. For example, Pittsburgh is at 73/57 with south winds. NYC is at 42/35 with east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Yup nothing but showers if that. I'm surprised it's been so dry over the past few days. I wasn't expecting washout but we've had almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 That will weaken dramatically as it both crosses the Apps and encounters much more stable marine air locked in with ENE/NE winds. Temperatures are 30F colder in NYC than in western PA and wind direction is completely unfavorable. You can forget about anything but light rain. For example, Pittsburgh is at 73/57 with south winds. NYC is at 42/35 with east winds. I still think we see decent rain. That convection has loaded the mid levels with moisture that has to wring out. Kind of like a landfalling TC. Thunder probably not rain yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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