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Types of winters you prefer

PrinceFrederickWx

By PrinceFrederickWx,
in Mid Atlantic

Types of winters you prefer  

77 members have voted

  1. 1. If you had to choose, would you prefer a front-loaded or back-loaded winter?

    • Front-loaded (most of snow at the BEGINNING of winter)
      46
    • Back-loaded (most of snow at the END of winter)
      31

  2. 2. If you had to choose, which would you prefer in winter?

    • One HECS, but nothing else
      31
    • Lots of small/moderate events, but no HECS
      46

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
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Hmmm, kind of a tough one here to make an absolute decision.  So I'll weasel out and parse things based on being given a choice between different scenarios.  Personally, what makes a good winter to me is not only snow (though that's a large part), but how sustained the cold is, i.e., how "wintry" the entire DJF(M) period is as a whole.  It doesn't have to be super frigid, but consistently below normal is nice and enough decent events to follow and track.  Obviously, the ideal would be something like 2009-10 (which effectively ended on Feb. 10, by the way) or 2002-03.  One could even list 2013-14 in there too.

 

--Given a choice between front-loaded or back-loaded, I'd take a back-loaded winter.  I cannot stand winters that end in early January or so, even if it's pretty good to great up to that point.  2007-08 comes to mind, we had a good December and a neat Clipper system...after that, bleah as far as I recall.  Similarly, 1989-90, which effectively ended right after New Year's.  If winter has to suck at some point, I'd rather have it suck early and come on strong from about the midpoint of the season to the end.  Now, by "back loaded" I'm not talking about right at the end, but more along the lines of the latter part of January into March.  Something similar to 2006-07 or this year (though we definitely had cold and some snow in early January this winter).

 

--One HECS vs. many small to moderate events.  Oh, boy...that's a tough one!  But offhand, if it's one HECS and crappy winter otherwise, I'd take the many small to moderate events and more "consistent" winter over that.  2005-06 comes to mind, there's nothing good I recall from that other than the mid-February storm (which wasn't as good here as in NYC, say), and it was 60 degrees a few days later anyhow.  However, if it's a bunch of nickel-and-dime events with one memorable HECS at some point in an otherwise pretty cold and "wintry" winter, I'd take that over several moderate ones.

 

--If we absolutely have to have a front-loaded winter that ends by mid-January or a craptastic winter other than one event, then of course I'd take a HECS sometime in that period.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

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Speaking of front-loaded winters and my fantasy New Year's HECS- I found out IAD's 7th biggest snowfall was 12/31/1970-1/1/1971 with 15.4"; however, BWI only got 6" and DCA 9.3". How did that happen? I had never heard of this storm before. Its not on the NESIS list either.

 

1.7" precip at IAD, 1.5" precip at the Vienna, VA coop (11" snow), only an inch of precip at DCA.  Looks like it was east/west oriented.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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Those of you who voted "One HECS, but nothing else":

 

If winter 2009-10 had ended right after the HECS on 12/19, and then torched all the way through, do you really think you would've been satisfied with it?

 

I reached climo by then, but I would've still been annoyed if the rest of the winter had ended up as a total shutout, enough to call it an average or "meh" winter.

 

This is an interesting question, I think.  Personally for me, I have to admit that it would not be all that satisfying if 2009-10 torched and was crap soon after the Dec. 18-19 HECS.  It would be a great memory and would put most all of us at better than climo on the season from that one event, but going the rest of the way without anything would be no fun.  It would be like a half-baked season, so to speak.  As it was, winter actually (and quite literally) ended right after the Feb. 9-10 blizzard.  But by then, it was already a record-breaker (and getting later in the season) so it didn't bother me that we were shut out from that point on.

 

On the flip-side and a related question, I've often wondered what people here would think of 2006-07 had we gotten the Valentine's Day storm as a HECS (or a near-HECS), instead of the sleet/ice fest that we ended up with.  I always thought that winter was a not half-bad one in the end, even if we didn't get a lot of snow with the V-Day event...but it just missed being really memorable because of that.  Given everything else that winter starting from near the end of January, I'd wager a lot in here would have considered it a good to very good one had we gotten, say, a foot or more of snow with that storm.  This winter (2014-15) kind of did what that one didn't quite do in terms of "coming from behind", I think...because we ended up with better than climo snow.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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Speaking of front-loaded winters and my fantasy New Year's HECS- I found out IAD's 7th biggest snowfall was 12/31/1970-1/1/1971 with 15.4"; however, BWI only got 6" and DCA 9.3". How did that happen? I had never heard of this storm before. Its not on the NESIS list either.

This storm has an entry in both Northeast Snowstorms (KU) and the Washington Weather book (Kevin Ambrose). The Washington Weather book states that the storm mixed with sleet in DC and further east, cutting down on totals, but the mixing is not apparent by looking at the hourly obs from DCA. It was IAD's biggest single storm until 1979, and snow totals further increased to the west of IAD. The snow map shows a very large expanse of 10"+ snows across the Mid Atlantic, displaced to just west of the cities. 

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

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1.7" precip at IAD, 1.5" precip at the Vienna, VA coop (11" snow), only an inch of precip at DCA.  Looks like it was east/west oriented.

 

 

This storm has an entry in both Northeast Snowstorms (KU) and the Washington Weather book (Kevin Ambrose). The Washington Weather book states that the storm mixed with sleet in DC and further east, cutting down on totals, but the mixing is not apparent by looking at the hourly obs from DCA. It was IAD's biggest single storm until 1979, and snow totals further increased to the west of IAD. The snow map shows a very large expanse of 10"+ snows across the Mid Atlantic, displaced to just west of the cities. 

 

Thanks to both of you for the info. I was curious because its such a weird outcome- I can't think of any other major snow events off the top of my head where BWI performed the worst of the three airports (but I'm sure there's others).

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HighStakes

HighStakes

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1.7" precip at IAD, 1.5" precip at the Vienna, VA coop (11" snow), only an inch of precip at DCA.  Looks like it was east/west oriented.

 

 

This storm has an entry in both Northeast Snowstorms (KU) and the Washington Weather book (Kevin Ambrose). The Washington Weather book states that the storm mixed with sleet in DC and further east, cutting down on totals, but the mixing is not apparent by looking at the hourly obs from DCA. It was IAD's biggest single storm until 1979, and snow totals further increased to the west of IAD. The snow map shows a very large expanse of 10"+ snows across the Mid Atlantic, displaced to just west of the cities. 

Sounds pretty similar to the March 9th, 1999 system. The 1999 storm was colder and had less precip.

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Fozz

Fozz

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This winter so far got me thinking about this poll cause it may very well end up being "one HECS but nothing else". So if we blowtorch all the way to February and then got one 15-20" storm and nothing else, would you still think of it as a good winter?

No, 05-06 had a 15" storm but my overall opinion of that winter is "meh". If it's more than 20", and if there are a couple of moderate storms (2-4") along with it, then maybe.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

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No, 05-06 had a 15" storm but my overall opinion of that winter is "meh". If it's more than 20", and if there are a couple of moderate storms (2-4") along with it, then maybe.

 

Part of it is the character of the big storm too.  Feb '06 was just such a bummer when it was sunny and melting the morning after.  Worse than Feb '14.  An 18" or so storm would "save" a winter, but you wouldn't look back and think that was a good winter, you'd think of it as a great storm in a crap winter.  Now, throw me another 24" this Feb. and all is forgiven for this Dec. ;)

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

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This winter so far got me thinking about this poll cause it may very well end up being "one HECS but nothing else". So if we blowtorch all the way to February and then got one 15-20" storm and nothing else, would you still think of it as a good winter?

 

The winter would still be a disaster in my book.  It would still be a disaster if that storm happened to be 24".  Infact, the near-constant blow torch from T-day through Christmas has completely ruined this winter IMO, regardless of what happens from here on out.  I'm fine with this pattern till May.  Try again next Dec.

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Jebman

Jebman

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I want severe snows and severe cold. I want drifts and snow piled high and absolutely nowhere to put the snow or the car. Thats the kind of winter I like. I like having to go out every day and dig massive amounts of snow like I am a native-born Jay Peak Vermonter. I love it when that wind is so strong and blowin so much snow so damn hard, that when I try to shovel it, the wind blows the snow right off of my shovel! The best kind of winter, is when EVERY LAST PLOW is stuck in the snow and there is nothing to be done about it for WEEKS!

 

I love winter when the Washington Post has this delicious headline:

 

CLEANUP COULD STRETCH FOR DAYS

 

THAT, is what I call a wonderful grand slam winter.

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

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I want severe snows and severe cold. I want drifts and snow piled high and absolutely nowhere to put the snow or the car. Thats the kind of winter I like. I like having to go out every day and dig massive amounts of snow like I am a native-born Jay Peak Vermonter. I love it when that wind is so strong and blowin so much snow so damn hard, that when I try to shovel it, the wind blows the snow right off of my shovel! The best kind of winter, is when EVERY LAST PLOW is stuck in the snow and there is nothing to be done about it for WEEKS!

 

I love winter when the Washington Post has this delicious headline:

 

CLEANUP COULD STRETCH FOR DAYS

 

THAT, is what I call a wonderful grand slam winter.

 

Classic Jebman, I love it!

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  • 1 month later...
Fozz

Fozz

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Now that we've gone through a winter that fit "One HECS and nothing else" almost to a T, I stand by the other choice.

 

This was a pretty good winter, but I like seeing snow fall.... and like dailylurker said, a one and done deal just isn't enough for me to call it a great or amazing year.

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dailylurker

dailylurker

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I had to really think about the second section. I think I'd prefer lots of smaller events if they were followed by extended cold. I'd take that over one HECS followed by mild sunny weather. This year I was ok with just the HECS and a couple little events. We had cold and small snows the past 2 winters.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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I had to really think about the second section. I think I'd prefer lots of smaller events if they were followed by extended cold. I'd take that over one HECS followed by mild sunny weather. This year I was ok with just the HECS and a couple little events. We had cold and small snows the past 2 winters.

I posted that 13-14 was one of my favorite winters a couple years ago and was met with friction. There is no pleasing the MA crew unless we have wall to wall cold with historic snow totals that include a top 5 storm.

I think expectations compared to where we live and what usually happens are completely misaligned with reality.

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