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2015 Spring/Summer Banter & complaint thread


dmc76

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It will be annoying to go into the deep freeze like the GFS suggests with nothing to show for it (although verbatim it does show Boston surpassing its record with 1-2 decent snow threats)...


 


Otherwise, it's so pointless without a big snowstorm, or for some, snowcover...

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It will be annoying to go into the deep freeze like the GFS suggests with nothing to show for it (although verbatim it does show Boston surpassing its record with 1-2 decent snow threats)...

 

Otherwise, it's so pointless without a big snowstorm, or for some, snowcover...

 

couldnt care less about Boston. We set our record last year. Really, as we head into allergy season my focus shifts to Tigers baseball as spring weather makes me miserable regardless of what it does (warm, cold, stormy, sunny, etc). Another good winter in the books, time for my least favorite season.

 

I will say its very interesting when you look at this winter past- we not only had a constant snowcover, but it was deep and for a long period of time, really, playing second fiddle only to 2013-14 (yes, '15 was better than '78 locally). You got your big dog....all of that....and we only are at 47.5" of snow at DTW!!! Slightly above normal but we may not even hit 50" (unless a spring snow shows up). Talk about making the most of the snow you got.

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It will be annoying to go into the deep freeze like the GFS suggests with nothing to show for it (although verbatim it does show Boston surpassing its record with 1-2 decent snow threats)...

 

Otherwise, it's so pointless without a big snowstorm, or for some, snowcover...

 

 

Yikes, just saw that the 12z GFS has 850 mb temps of -20C and colder there a week from now.  00z ECMWF was not as cold, so you got that going for you.

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Yikes, just saw that the 12z GFS has 850 mb temps of -20C and colder there a week from now.  00z ECMWF was not as cold, so you got that going for you.

 

00z GFS had a similar solution.

 

But yeah, although it's a plausible outcome, it appears to be in its own world for now...

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What an uneventful and boring March, wow! When will this lack of storminess end? Since October 2014, YYZ has only recorded 7.96" of precip whereas the average is supposed to be 13.5". The typical drought effect of an El Nino. April/May better be active because this is getting relentless. However, its been really nice outside whenever the Sun does come out. Can't complain on that.

 

March 15 and only 0.24" of precip has been recorded at YYZ. The average for March is around 2.16", so its way below normal. 

 

Looking ahead and the models show no end in sight with this "drought" for the region.

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Yikes, just saw that the 12z GFS has 850 mb temps of -20C and colder there a week from now. 00z ECMWF was not as cold, so you got that going for you.

Yeah I am not buying a drop that low if we do get cold, GFS tends to overdo the cold air at this range only to come in more subdued as we get closer, also the GFS and Euro have been showing a phantom cold snap for a while only to push it back further.
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Definitely need a nice wet spring system to help wash everything down. Except for a tiny bit of freezing rain in February it has not rained since January 3rd here!

 

Just need another small snow to get up to average locally.

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Pretty boring March here so far!!!, at least on Morch 12th 2012 I got an EF-1 tornado 2 miles from my house and went for a long walk along the tornado path lol (not that that will ever happen again).... Anybody have any stats on how cold the lakes are this year compared to normal? I'm worried the cold lake temps will suppress storms this spring into summer around here...

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This March is not good, but I don't get why many think its the most boring or worst ever, last March was far worse than this one. I would agree though 100% if we were talking about this last February, that was the absolute King of Weather Boredom. For me, this painful uneventful and undesired trend has been ongoing for a long time now.

 

I think I prefer it be dry since more rain could hurt Spring temperatures, as long as its warm.

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This March is not good, but I don't get why many think its the most boring or worst ever, last March was far worse than this one. I would agree though 100% if we were talking about this last February, that was the absolute King of Weather Boredom. For me, this painful uneventful and undesired trend has been ongoing for a long time now.

 

I think I prefer it be dry since more rain could hurt Spring temperatures, as long as its warm.

 

I guess with the lakes freezing up early, your party died down quickly.

 

I was in Edmonton last March, but I know back home there were a couple interesting events, which is a couple more than this March.

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From SPC

 

post-14-0-44280400-1426642309_thumb.png

 

 

Keli Pirtle, NOAA Public Affairs
Noon CST, March 17, 2015

NORMAN, Okla. During a month when severe weather typically strikes, this March has been unusually quiet, with no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center so far. And, National Weather Service forecasters see no sign of dramatic change for the next week at least.

"We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather", said Greg Carbin, SPC's warning coordination meteorologist. "This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970."

Since the beginning of 2015, the SPC has issued only four tornado watches and no severe thunderstorm watches, which is less than 10 percent of the typical number of 52 tornado watches issued by mid-March. The approximately 20 tornadoes reported since January 1 is well below the 10-year average of 130 for that time period.

There is no one clear reason to explain the lack of tornadoes, Carbin said. "We're in a persistent pattern that suppresses severe weather, and the right ingredients -- moisture, instability, and lift -- have not been brought together in any consistent way so far this year."

Forecasters expect a change soon, however. April and May are typically the busiest months for severe weather and tornadoes. Patterns can change in a few days, Carbin said, and it's important to be prepared for severe weather when it occurs.

Analysis of the ten lowest and ten highest watch count years through the middle of March reveals little correlation to the subsequent number of tornadoes through the end of June. For example, early 2012 was particularly active with 77 watches issued through mid-March. The subsequent period through the end of June was unusually quiet for tornadoes with about 130 fewer EF1 and stronger tornadoes occurring than what would normally be expected. On the other hand, 1984, with a relatively low watch count of 28 through mid-March, became more active and by late June had about 100 EF1 and stronger tornadoes above the long-term mean of 285.

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From SPC

 

attachicon.gifwatches.png

 

 

Keli Pirtle, NOAA Public Affairs

Noon CST, March 17, 2015

NORMAN, Okla. During a month when severe weather typically strikes, this March has been unusually quiet, with no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center so far. And, National Weather Service forecasters see no sign of dramatic change for the next week at least.

"We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather", said Greg Carbin, SPC's warning coordination meteorologist. "This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970."

Since the beginning of 2015, the SPC has issued only four tornado watches and no severe thunderstorm watches, which is less than 10 percent of the typical number of 52 tornado watches issued by mid-March. The approximately 20 tornadoes reported since January 1 is well below the 10-year average of 130 for that time period.

There is no one clear reason to explain the lack of tornadoes, Carbin said. "We're in a persistent pattern that suppresses severe weather, and the right ingredients -- moisture, instability, and lift -- have not been brought together in any consistent way so far this year."

Forecasters expect a change soon, however. April and May are typically the busiest months for severe weather and tornadoes. Patterns can change in a few days, Carbin said, and it's important to be prepared for severe weather when it occurs.

Analysis of the ten lowest and ten highest watch count years through the middle of March reveals little correlation to the subsequent number of tornadoes through the end of June. For example, early 2012 was particularly active with 77 watches issued through mid-March. The subsequent period through the end of June was unusually quiet for tornadoes with about 130 fewer EF1 and stronger tornadoes occurring than what would normally be expected. On the other hand, 1984, with a relatively low watch count of 28 through mid-March, became more active and by late June had about 100 EF1 and stronger tornadoes above the long-term mean of 285.

Plan on an explosive start to the season, you never tempt fate by bringing up stats like this. Back in 07 when I interned at DTX, they sent out their end of summer newsletter and mentioned the lack of tornadoes up to that point (mid-August). After that point DTX had 10 tornadoes from mid-August to late-October

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