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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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Things are getting going on the cell east of Pittsboro. A few cells there actually with early signs of rotation and supercell form. Most should hope these go linear.

 

That one is small but nasty, and it is trying to get a couplet going right where you would look for one......headed more or less towards Cary as well....

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Surprisingly (?) there hasn't been much Eastward progression of the cells this afternoon/evening. Looks like the 984mb Low pressure lifted more N into the great lakes rather than moving into the Northeast states, slowing down the frontal progress. I don't know - just guessing. Whoever's been getting them will keep getting them for a while longer, it appears.

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Surprisingly (?) there hasn't been much Eastward progression of the cells this afternoon/evening. Looks like the 984mb Low pressure lifted more N into the great lakes rather than moving into the Northeast states, slowing down the frontal progress. I don't know - just guessing. Whoever's been getting them will keep getting them for a while longer, it appears.

 

Good I don't need anymore rain lol.......with our luck this will turn into a general areas of moderate to heavy rain with elevated thunder and we will end up getting dumped on all night....

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Looks like it did get cut off. I think the money cell overall is going to be that cell heading into Union county and eventually Chester/Lancaster county. Dynamics should improve in the next 1-2 hours and doesn't have much to cut it off.

Well it was money, just didn't produce! Chased it from Chester to Waxhaw before calling it a day. Always gets kinda dicey crossing the Catawba and not putting yourself in a bad spot.

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AS OF 735 PM MONDAY...

UPDATE: MODEST PW HAS KEPT COVERAGE FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND SO FAR.
WE'RE SEEING PLENTY OF HIGH REFLECTIVITIES IN THE LOWEST 15-20
KFT... HOWEVER CORES ABOVE 25 KFT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MUTED... AND TOPS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 30-35 KFT. THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF WEAK
INSTABILITY ABOVE 25 KFT... NOTED IN THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS.
NEVERTHELESS... WE'VE STILL MANAGED TO GET VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION WITH PERSISTENT CELLS POSSESSING LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONIC
CHARACTERISTICS TO GENERATE SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. SPC MESOANALYSES STILL HAVE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 45 KTS WITH MODEST MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG... STILL
INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE CELLS. WILL RETAIN THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT... AND BASED ON
THE THIS FAVORABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING INTO THE NE CWA AND ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF EXISTING SEVERE AND NEAR-SEVERE STORMS... HAVE
ADDED AREAS TO THE WATCH... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LILLINGTON TO SMITHFIELD TO WILSON. COVERAGE SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED
TO AREAS FROM RALEIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE LATEST CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE
CWA. HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. -GIH
 

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Today was my "tornado" chasing debut (I chased Hurricane Arthur for my overall debut), even though I wasn't expecting to see one. I had a lab until 3 pm before going south on I-26 toward GSP. There was a nice rotation just north of Greenville for a few frames and I didn't want to have a close call crossing in front of it so I went east on US 74 toward better terrain. Sadly, that rotation fell apart and I end up with nothing when I stop at a gas station in Boiling Springs, NC in hope for a hailstone or two. After that, I went southward to the next cell near Gaffney, SC but that storm also fell apart by the time I got there. I thought about going farther south to cell that would eventually become tornado warned cell a hour later, but I ran into a crappy road network that would've lead to me to miss that storm so I called the chase there and went home. It wasn't really worth going into that area with dense amount of trees so I would've been blind to whatever happened to that cell anyway. Overall, I had a great time learning about the pace of thunderstorm chasing and I believe this was an ideal system of storms for me to learn on. I also learned that I'm probably won't be as willing to go to South Carolina as I was today in the future 5% tornado days since that's a tough chasing area if you want to see something. 

 

EDIT: Forgot to mention this. While I was in Gaffney, a thunderstorm came over me and nailed me at a gas station with 40-50 mph gusts. Nothing that special, but it's worth mentioning because I was a bit concerned riding it out that I got myself caught in something even though there was nothing on velocity radar that suggest winds that strong.

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Today was my "tornado" chasing debut (I chased Hurricane Arthur for my overall debut), even though I wasn't expecting to see one. I had a lab until 3 pm before going south on I-26 toward GSP. There was a nice rotation just north of Greenville for a few frames and I didn't want to have a close call crossing in front of it so I went east on US 74 toward better terrain. Sadly, that rotation fell apart and I end up with nothing when I stop at a gas station in Boiling Springs, NC in hope for a hailstone or two. After that, I went southward to the next cell near Gaffney, SC but that storm also fell apart by the time I got there. I thought about going farther south to cell that would eventually become tornado warned cell a hour later, but I ran into a crappy road network that would've lead to me to miss that storm so I called the chase there and went home. It wasn't really worth going into that area with dense amount of trees so I would've been blind to whatever happened to that cell anyway. Overall, I had a great time learning about the pace of thunderstorm chasing and I believe this was an ideal system of storms for me to learn on. I also learned that I'm probably won't be as willing to go to South Carolina as I was today in the future 5% tornado days since that's a tough chasing area if you want to see something.

EDIT: Forgot to mention this. While I was in Gaffney, a thunderstorm came over me and nailed me at a gas station with 40-50 mph gusts. Nothing that special, but it's worth mentioning because I was a bit concerned riding it out that I got myself caught in something even though there was nothing on velocity radar that suggest winds that strong.

If it makes you feel any better my area where I live is going to be viciously destroyed come Friday. Lol

Yay Tulsa!

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Wow ! ATL has a Torcon of 5 for tomorrow ! That's the highest Torcon that I can recall , being so close to me! I'm sure the wedge will save me, but Atlanta is a major population center!! Heads up tomorrow y'all! BNA has a Torcon of 6 also, for tomorrow !

 

I just read part of FFC's AFD posted at another forum and I saw Steve Nelson (who wrote the AFD) mention tomorrow reminds him of March 2008. I got a chill down my spine for obvious reasons... :yikes:  

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I didn't realize that this could be a major tornado or severe weather outbreak in GA until I read FFC's discussion. According to them this could be the worst severe weather outbreak in 7 years !

 

Yeah that's pretty aggressive considering the SPC currently only had most of that area in slight risk, will be interesting to see if they upgrade this evening

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