Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I never thought 10" was "likely" for anyone. Simple math. 10" requires 10 hours of snowfall at an average rate of 1"/hr @ 10:1. That's a lot to ask unless there is some sort of upper level low or coastal low. It's still possible because of the unusual setup of a mega moisture feed and slow moving boundary. But 10" of snow usually requires a "storm" and not a "wave". Exactly. I think at least some of the "disappointment" and cliff-jumping is that people grabbed onto the more extreme solutions that showed double-digit amounts. I still think 4-8" is a solid bet area-wide (the "CYA" forecast that WxMan1 mentioned before!). I think I'll set my over-under at 5", which is the lowest end of warning criteria for the LWX area. I'd like to think we can get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 God help this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 God help this forum He may start trolling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 He may start trolling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 He may start trolling it Is he/she going to unseat JI? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 he must be visiting dc today and sampling the local greenery I lol'd real hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 God help this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 He may start trolling it Already has by tweaking the NAM and GFS precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Already has by tweaking the NAM and GFS precip amounts. Decreasing them if he/she has a sense of humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Decreasing them if he/she has a sense of humor Absolutely! Then NAM us at 00Z just to make people think twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is quality stuff from the NYC thread If I had to guess for first sleet/snow mix with rain times: Sussex: 12:00AM Morristown: 12:40AM Newark: 1:00AM NYC: 1:15AM SI/Driscoll Br: 1:35AM S Midlsx/Mnmth 1:50AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Maybe alcohol IS the way to tolerate how some act here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Today has been weird for me. Day before a storm and my post count is very low by Bob chill standards. Might need to start drinking and go on a trolling spree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Damn Ian, great post in the model thread even if it was banterish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Today has been weird for me. Day before a storm and my post count is very low by Bob chill standards. Might need to start drinking and go on a trolling spree. I'm opening my first beer for the 0z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Today has been weird for me. Day before a storm and my post count is very low by Bob chill standards. Might need to start drinking and go on a trolling spree. Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm going with Roger smith 15 to 22Has that guy ever even been close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Whooohoooo I'm changing over 13 hours ago! I thought you did. You have been posting heavy snow all day. So you are telling me you have been lying all day?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Has that guy ever even been close? He nailed our first one or two storms. To be fair, he's very insightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Has that guy ever even been close? Believe it or not like 2 times that i can remember in the past 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Damn Ian, great post in the model thread even if it was banterishIt'll work for a while until it becomes like the hot air in congress and DC snow hole joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Believe it or not like 2 times that i can remember in the past 5 years.I'm sure he has been and Alaska is right he's not a dummy but he does have some bad calls for our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It'll work for a while until it becomes like the hot air in congress and DC snow hole joke. The "closer to hell" excuse for low snow will work, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Most schools closed the evening before 3/3 last winter. UMD has already announced they are closed tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcoholhelps Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Maybe alcohol IS the way to tolerate how some act here It does help! And my liver holds up just fine...it's all about moderation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm sure he has been and Alaska is right he's not a dummy but he does have some bad calls for our storms. Yea the over 12" is a little crazy for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Spotsylvania County Schools just Closed already for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Kinda nailed the clipper that did. Also, Senate "adjourned" a day early and members are going home. Guess they ignored the NAM/GFS combo...and hate America. They must have solved all our problems and need a long weekend to recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I can't believe how much qpf we are wasting to rain right now. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 ok maybe my last winter storm, so i'm going balls and taint out from this point gonna do snow angels gonna pee in the snow (but not eat it) gonna throw snow balls at a cop car gonna build a snow man gonna walk to giant gonna enjoy the silence (other than the pummullegged from this snow....yes, bad spelling) gonna clear and mezure akurately thru the day anything else? i think the models are all lulz and we are in for what some call a schellackin <------------dont care if i spelled that wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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