SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM is about where you want it at 84 hours, the GFS ggem and euro will come in flatter but flatter will be nearly a perfect track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z NAM would be a crush job for all . 0z NAM verbatim would give many NW of NYC a 30-40" snowpack in March lol.. Just ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm driving to Florida Tuesday...I hope to dodge precipitation along the way...I think I will be in the clear until I get to Richmond...It should be rain down there as I pass thru...I'll miss two possible snowfalls and a thaw...When I return in two weeks it will probably snow again...I need the rest...I'm getting to old for this ... If the Wednesday night/ Thursday storm is looking good come Tuesday morning, I'd consider cancelling that trip. You wouldn't want to miss a good one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If the Wednesday night/ Thursday storm is looking good come Tuesday morning, I'd consider cancelling that trip. You wouldn't want to miss a good one.... This is so thread the needle it may be tough to have a handle on it before later Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z NAM verbatim would give many NW of NYC a 30-40" snowpack in March lol.. Just ridiculous Sounds about right . Why not end the most extreme Feb departure ever with a classic snowstorm from the Tennessee Valley all the way to New England and just drop the hammer . That is on the table and we will need to get lucky to pull it off . The set up is dicey , we have to catch the SW on the arctic front . Not an easy do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Sounds about right . Why not end the most extreme Feb departure ever with a classic snowstorm from the Tennessee Valley all the way to New England and just drop the hammer . That is on the table and we will need to get lucky to pull it off . The set up is dicey , we have to catch the SW on the arctic front . Not an easy do . Come on PB. Make it happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Come on PB. Make it happen! It better or I am toast .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z NAM would be a crush job for all . Mr B. if it doesn't go down ...does it crush our weenie hearts??? we playin with fire here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Why does the NWS point and click have 3-7 inches for Tuesday? Tuesday Night Snow before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then rain after 4am. Low around 31. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Mr B. if it don't go down ...does it crush our weenie hearts??? we playin with fire here Huge ceiling HUGE BUST potential . I am being cautious . I like how the precip is falling in the cold sector , I like the stream of where the best VV are aimed . The cold press will probably be stronger in the end . Does that just drag the 850`s towards the mid Atlantic and keep a lot of the precip on it`s western flank . I don`t know yet . I liked wave 2 to get weaker and colder in order to help gas this up . I got wave 2 now lets see if this responds . What are thoughts Tom The trough is Pos tilted so the escape would be to our S and E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 New thread started for Tuesday snow/ice/rain storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Why does the NWS point and click have 3-7 inches for Tuesday? Tuesday Night Snow before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then rain after 4am. Low around 31. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Same question over and over! Go ask NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Huge ceiling HUGE BUST potential . I am being cautious . I like how the precip is falling in the cold sector , I like the stream of where the best VV are aimed . The cold press will probably be stronger in the end . Does that just drag the 850`s towards the mid Atlantic and keep a lot of the precip on it`s western flank . I don`t know yet . I liked wave 2 to get weaker and colder in order to help gas this up . I got wave 2 now lets see if this responds . What are thoughts Tom The trough is Pos tilted so the escape would be to our S and E . PB I am burned out tonight... we did a solo late night snow cleaning run of on some of the bosses properties this looks good at this point-imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 PB I am burned out tonight... we did a solo late night snow cleaning run of on some of the bosses properties this looks good at this point-imo OK dude , get some rest . We will circle back at 12z and see if this clears up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If the Wednesday night/ Thursday storm is looking good come Tuesday morning, I'd consider cancelling that trip. You wouldn't want to miss a good one.... the last time I was in Florida in the winter was 2009...There was a heavy snow warning for NYC but it busted badly...watching it from there was weird...If I was still taking measurements and keeping daily records I would cancel the trip...A was a fanatic 20 years ago when I did observations...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 the last time I was in Florida in the winter was 2009...There was a heavy snow warning for NYC but it busted badly...watching it from there was weird...If I was still taking measurements and keeping daily records I would cancel the trip...A was a fanatic 20 years ago when I did observations...... Yea. I hear ya. I was in florida last winter for that February storm where we were supposed to get a foot 36 hours before, and it stayed south and we got nothing. It was an awful experience, up until it actually busted. Then....I was in Atlantic city on Jan 26 this year ( supposed to stay until the 29th), and RUSHED home due to fear of missing the great blizzard of 2015 and 24-36 inches. I cut my trip short, and for a measly 5 inches. I might never get over that storm....and I'll be chasing that high forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Why does the NWS point and click have 3-7 inches for Tuesday? Tuesday Night Snow before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then rain after 4am. Low around 31. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Upton has 2-4" for Tuesday for Union/SI and 3-5" almost everywhere else in their point and clicks and in the hourly weather graphics, but their AFD is pretty non-committal on snowfall amounts and we're only 48 hours out. Interestingly, just next door, in northern Middelsex County, the point/click and graphic all have about 0.5" of snow for us. Hope Upton is right. Also will be really interesting to see if we can get the late Weds to Thursday storm to thread the needle and give us some good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z gfs looks a bit more suppressed than 18z for thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z gfs looks a bit more suppressed than 18z for thursday. It's still 6"-8" for NYC/LI. 8"-10" for CNJ and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This might be a storm we all share in on. It could be a nasty ice episode even down here in Austin with a 1036+mb high pressing south in NW TX with the wave on the arctic front crossing through. It'll be crucial to see how much moisture is left when the arctic front passes through, or if it's all pushed east by then. Obviously the same applies to you guys-the arctic front and wave timing will be crucial-if the wave can pass by at the right time, it could be a very nice snow event. It looks likely to happen for somebody at least-the cold behind this front means business and lots of Gulf moisture will be lifted over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This might be a storm we all share in on. It could be a nasty ice episode even down here in Austin with a 1036+mb high pressing south in NW TX with the wave on the arctic front crossing through. It'll be crucial to see how much moisture is left when the arctic front passes through, or if it's all pushed east by then. Obviously the same applies to you guys-the arctic front and wave timing will be crucial-if the wave can pass by at the right time, it could be a very nice snow event. It looks likely to happen for somebody at least-the cold behind this front means business and lots of Gulf moisture will be lifted over top. OH man don't say that, my backup plan to get out of DFW Wednesday is to drive down to AUS, I figured for sure the front won't get there til late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 OH man don't say that, my backup plan to get out of DFW Wednesday is to drive down to AUS, I figured for sure the front won't get there til late evening. The 0z NAM and especially GFS= Hopefully the precip misses the cold air arrival down here but if it hits Wed night, Thursday could be horrendous. Yesterday morning racked up 100 accidents around Austin from just a light glaze on bridges and less traveled roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 How's the gem for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 How's the gem for this event? Coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 UKMET at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Great hit on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Great hit on the GGEM6-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Great hit on the GGEM Yeah, I like the chances for this one...even the NavGEM is fairly far west at 84, the tendency all winter has been if you see the NavGEM not be overly progressive the other models have consistently been hits or northwest of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6-10 for NYC on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 How much more further south? 8-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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