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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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I'm driving to Florida Tuesday...I hope to dodge precipitation along the way...I think I will be in the clear until I get to Richmond...It should be rain down there as I pass thru...I'll miss two possible snowfalls and a thaw...When I return in two weeks it will probably snow again...I need the rest...I'm getting to old for this ...

If the Wednesday night/ Thursday storm is looking good come Tuesday morning, I'd consider cancelling that trip. You wouldn't want to miss a good one....

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0z NAM verbatim would give many NW of NYC a 30-40" snowpack in March lol.. Just ridiculous

 

Sounds about right . Why not end the most extreme Feb departure ever with a classic snowstorm from the Tennessee  Valley all the way to New England and just drop the hammer .

 

That is on the table and we will need to get lucky to pull it off . The set up is dicey , we have to catch the SW on the arctic front .

 

Not an easy do .

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Sounds about right . Why not end the most extreme Feb departure ever with a classic snowstorm from the Tennessee  Valley all the way to New England and just drop the hammer .

 

That is on the table and we will need to get lucky to pull it off . The set up is dicey , we have to catch the SW on the arctic front .

 

Not an easy do .

Come on PB. Make it happen!

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Mr B. if it don't go down ...does it crush our weenie hearts???

 

prec_f096_ussm.gif

 

t850std1_f096_ussm.gif

 

we playin with fire here

Huge ceiling HUGE  BUST potential .  I am being cautious .

 

I like how the precip is falling in the cold sector , I like the stream of where the best VV are aimed .

 

The cold press will probably be stronger in the end . Does that just drag the 850`s towards the mid Atlantic and keep a lot of the precip on it`s western flank . I don`t know yet .

 

I liked wave 2 to get weaker and colder in order to help gas this up . I got wave 2 now lets see if this responds .

 

What are thoughts Tom

 

The trough is Pos tilted so the escape would be to our S and E .

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Why does the NWS point and click have 3-7 inches for Tuesday?

Tuesday Night Snow before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then rain after 4am. Low around 31. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Same question over and over! Go ask NWS
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Huge ceiling HUGE  BUST potential .  I am being cautious .

 

I like how the precip is falling in the cold sector , I like the stream of where the best VV are aimed .

 

The cold press will probably be stronger in the end . Does that just drag the 850`s towards the mid Atlantic and keep a lot of the precip on it`s western flank . I don`t know yet .

 

I liked wave 2 to get weaker and colder in order to help gas this up . I got wave 2 now lets see if this responds .

 

What are thoughts Tom

 

The trough is Pos tilted so the escape would be to our S and E .

PB

 

I am burned out tonight...

we did a solo

late night snow cleaning run of on some of the bosses properties :beer:

 

this looks good at this point-imo

spag_f096_usbg.gif

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PB

 

I am burned out tonight...

we did a solo

late night snow cleaning run of on some of the bosses properties :beer:

 

this looks good at this point-imo

spag_f096_usbg.gif

OK  dude , get some rest . We will circle back at 12z and see if this clears up.

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If the Wednesday night/ Thursday storm is looking good come Tuesday morning, I'd consider cancelling that trip. You wouldn't want to miss a good one....

the last time I was in Florida in the winter was 2009...There was a heavy snow warning for NYC but it busted badly...watching it from there was weird...If I was still taking measurements and keeping daily records I would cancel the trip...A was a fanatic 20 years ago when I did observations......

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the last time I was in Florida in the winter was 2009...There was a heavy snow warning for NYC but it busted badly...watching it from there was weird...If I was still taking measurements and keeping daily records I would cancel the trip...A was a fanatic 20 years ago when I did observations......

Yea. I hear ya. I was in florida last winter for that February storm where we were supposed to get a foot 36 hours before, and it stayed south and we got nothing. It was an awful experience, up until it actually busted. Then....I was in Atlantic city on Jan 26 this year ( supposed to stay until the 29th), and RUSHED home due to fear of missing the great blizzard of 2015 and 24-36 inches. I cut my trip short, and for a measly 5 inches. I might never get over that storm....and I'll be chasing that high forever.

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Why does the NWS point and click have 3-7 inches for Tuesday?

 

Tuesday Night Snow before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then rain after 4am. Low around 31. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

 

Upton has 2-4" for Tuesday for Union/SI and 3-5" almost everywhere else in their point and clicks and in the hourly weather graphics, but their AFD is pretty non-committal on snowfall amounts and we're only 48 hours out.  Interestingly, just next door, in northern Middelsex County, the point/click and graphic all have about 0.5" of snow for us.  Hope Upton is right.  Also will be really interesting to see if we can get the late Weds to Thursday storm to thread the needle and give us some good snows.  

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This might be a storm we all share in on. It could be a nasty ice episode even down here in Austin with a 1036+mb high pressing south in NW TX with the wave on the arctic front crossing through. It'll be crucial to see how much moisture is left when the arctic front passes through, or if it's all pushed east by then. 

 

Obviously the same applies to you guys-the arctic front and wave timing will be crucial-if the wave can pass by at the right time, it could be a very nice snow event. It looks likely to happen for somebody at least-the cold behind this front means business and lots of Gulf moisture will be lifted over top. 

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This might be a storm we all share in on. It could be a nasty ice episode even down here in Austin with a 1036+mb high pressing south in NW TX with the wave on the arctic front crossing through. It'll be crucial to see how much moisture is left when the arctic front passes through, or if it's all pushed east by then. 

 

Obviously the same applies to you guys-the arctic front and wave timing will be crucial-if the wave can pass by at the right time, it could be a very nice snow event. It looks likely to happen for somebody at least-the cold behind this front means business and lots of Gulf moisture will be lifted over top. 

 

OH man don't say that, my backup plan to get out of DFW Wednesday is to drive down to AUS, I figured for sure the front won't get there til late evening.

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OH man don't say that, my backup plan to get out of DFW Wednesday is to drive down to AUS, I figured for sure the front won't get there til late evening.

The 0z NAM and especially GFS= :yikes:

 

Hopefully the precip misses the cold air arrival down here but if it hits Wed night, Thursday could be horrendous. Yesterday morning racked up 100 accidents around Austin from just a light glaze on bridges and less traveled roads. 

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