End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015

[PB GFI]

This was not our last snow. The pattern will relax but your looking about a week max.

Then we head back back into -EPO +PNA regime and this time the models are hinting at a - NAO but that last piece has been elusive so I am not counting on it.

Don't put your shovels away and hold off breaking out the shorts.

[cjr231]

This was fun going back and reading a week ago regarding this storm.... 

 

This is our snow pack wiper, it'll cause a catastrophic disaster in NE, and it'll signal in spring.

The secondary wave is the only thing worth noting and will see how far to the east the frontal boundary will shift. It could provide additional rain or maybe some frozen the jury is still out on that.

 

 

Youre entitled to your opinion but imo this is not a snowstorm for us

 

 

This is not even close to a snowstorm setup

 

LOL

 

Disagree, arctic high pressing south to the west and another low to our N/NE advecting cold air into the area as a frontal wave rides N/E...watch for this to change as time goes on.

 

Zelocita

[USCG RS]

This was not our last snow. The pattern will relax but your looking about a week max.

Then we head back back into -EPO +PNA regime and this time the models are hinting at a - NAO but that last piece has been elusive so I am not counting on it.

Don't put your shovels away and hold off breaking out the shorts.

Late March / early April blizzard here we come

[SnoSki14]

We may be lured into a false sense of security over the next 7-10 days that the cold and snow is really over.

That's another crazy EPO and PNA setup I'm seeing but that doesn't automatically equal very cold as there are noticeable changes from a similar setup in Jan to late March so we'll see what happens.

Consistent milder weather with no shot of snow begins around April 15-20, so there's still ways to go.

[SnowGoose69]

We may be lured into a false sense of security over the next 7-10 days that the cold and snow is really over.

That's another crazy EPO and PNA setup I'm seeing but that doesn't automatically equal very cold as there are noticeable changes from a similar setup in Jan to late March so we'll see what happens.

Consistent milder weather with no shot of snow begins around April 15-20, so there's still ways to go.

3/25 is the cutoff where we are fairly safe from snow, not a lock but you're talking a 1 in 10-15 year event usually after that, we are due though for a widespread April snow, I don't consider last year's event as widespread.

[snowman19]

3/25 is the cutoff where we are fairly safe from snow, not a lock but you're talking a 1 in 10-15 year event usually after that, we are due though for a widespread April snow, I don't consider last year's event as widespread.

I think some people fail to understand that the climo clock already began ticking and will keep ticking. Each passing day in March, you have a less and less threat of "arctic" cold and major snowstorms. Certain people are calling for a full fledged winter arctic cold and snowy pattern to return at the end of March, once past mid month, as if we will see highs in the teens, lows below zero and feet of snow. This is the nyc area, not a Maine or Canada latitude

[BxEngine]

I think some people fail to understand that the climo clock already began ticking and will keep ticking. Each passing day in March, you have a less and less threat of "arctic" cold and major snowstorms. Certain people are calling for a full fledged winter arctic cold and snowy pattern to return at the end of March, once past mid month, as if we will see highs in the teens, lows below zero and feet of snow. This is the nyc area, not a Maine or Canada latitude

Yeah? Who?

[snowman19]

I think some people fail to understand that the climo clock already began ticking and will keep ticking. Each passing day in March, you have a less and less threat of "arctic" cold and major snowstorms. Certain people are calling for a full fledged winter arctic cold and snowy pattern to return at the end of March, once past mid month, as if we will see highs in the teens, lows below zero and feet of snow. This is the nyc area, not a Maine or Canada latitude

I want to add that it goes without saying, you can't expect january responses weather wise to a similar long wave pattern in March, it's an impossibility.

[snowman19]

Yeah? Who?

The fake facebook "mets"/kids that love to put people into a panic, i.e. Weatherboyweather, just to name one of many

[USCG RS]

I think some people fail to understand that the climo clock already began ticking and will keep ticking. Each passing day in March, you have a less and less threat of "arctic" cold and major snowstorms. Certain people are calling for a full fledged winter arctic cold and snowy pattern to return at the end of March, once past mid month, as if we will see highs in the teens, lows below zero and feet of snow. This is the nyc area, not a Maine or Canada latitude

It has more to do with long wave global weather patterns shift as winter draws to a close. In other words, indicies become much less relevant as wavelengths shorten towards spring.

[atownwxwatcher]

I think some people fail to understand that the climo clock already began ticking and will keep ticking. Each passing day in March, you have a less and less threat of "arctic" cold and major snowstorms. Certain people are calling for a full fledged winter arctic cold and snowy pattern to return at the end of March, once past mid month, as if we will see highs in the teens, lows below zero and feet of snow. This is the nyc area, not a Maine or Canada latitude

And here we are March 5th going down to minus 3 tonight with that clock ticking ..

 

If a negative EPO and positive PNA evolve as suggested Post Day 10 it will put a trough in the east with below normal temperatures and keep snow threats alive while in place...despite that clock ticking 

[snowman19]

And here we are March 5th going down to minus 3 tonight with that clock ticking ..

If a negative EPO and positive PNA evolve as suggested Post Day 10 it will put a trough in the east with below normal temperatures and keep snow threats alive while in place...despite that clock ticking

i know, climo means nothing, just a word. Once post day 10 it's past mid month, what are you expecting for temps? Highs in the teens? Lows say -5? -7? Post day 10 projections always verify great and late March is the new January...

[Guest Pamela]

i know, climo means nothing, just a word. Once post day it's past mid month, what are you expecting for temps? Highs in the teens? Lows say -5? -7? Post day 10 projections always verify great and late March is the new January...

 

The coldest part of the year in NYC (generally in mid to late January) still has an average high of about 37 F or 38 F.

[snowman19]

And here we are March 5th going down to minus 3 tonight with that clock ticking ..

If a negative EPO and positive PNA evolve as suggested Post Day 10 it will put a trough in the east with below normal temperatures and keep snow threats alive while in place...despite that clock ticking

You do realize post day 10 is past mid month right? Do you really think we are going to have arctic cold and multiple snowstorm threats in late March like we would in January? You really think that?

[uncle W]

after the March Thaw it could get as cold as 20 degrees after the 15th...I would not be surprised if NYC gets into the low 20's with another snowfall or two before it ends...

[cjr231]

You do realize post day 10 is past mid month right? Do you really think we are going to have arctic cold and multiple snowstorm threats in late March like we would in January? You really think that?

 

Who is calling for that? You are freaking for no reason, man. People are just highlighting that there COULD be a threat or two still on the table. Long range forecasts seem to suggest so, though we all know how wonderful they have been this season. Regardless who has called for this January-type end to March? No one. Chill out.

[snowman19]

The coldest part of the year in NYC (generally in mid to late January) still has an average high of about 37 F or 38 F.

Tongue in cheek response to him. But arctic cold and multiple snowstorm threats at the end of March like he said? Get a grip this is nyc, not the Yukon

[mob1]

Snowman19 is creating a straw man here and trying to get some bonus points, we all know that march offers diminished chances of cold and snow, but great patterns can (and have) delivered snowstorms well into April.

[Morris]

3 waves. 3 times snow this week.

[atownwxwatcher]

You do realize post day 10 is past mid month right? Do you really think we are going to have arctic cold and multiple snowstorm threats in late March like we would in January? You really think that?

10 days from now is March 15th, exactly mid month 

 

1892 March 16-18th St Patricks Day storm 15.4 inches

March 16, 2007 - An all-day onslaught of sleet and snow dumped 5.5" of icy precipitation, the biggest snow of the winter.  This storm somewhat resembled last month's severe sleet storm on Valentine's Day, but this one had considerably more snow.  The total amount of precipitation was 2.07", a record for the date.  This was the last snowfall of the winter, a winter in which just 12.4" fell, quite a contrast from the previous four winters, all of which had at least forty inches of snow.

 

March 19, 1992 - The biggest snowfall of the winter occurred today, a sloppy 6.2".  This tripled the winter's relatively snowless snow total to 9.4".  Just two degrees separated the day's high and low (33/31).  

 

APRIL 

April 6, 1982 - Just 1.1" of snow had fallen in February and March when a blizzard dumped 9.6" of snow on the City today, less than a week before Easter.  More than a foot fell in New Jersey and Westchester County.  The storm started as rain in the pre-dawn hours and changed over to snow mid-morning and lasted through late afternoon.  By midnight the temperature had fallen to a record low 21 degrees.  This was the most snow to fall so late in the season since ten inches fell on April 3, 1915.

 

My whole point is despite climo it can happen if the teleconnections are in place and you have an active southern stream or northern stream disturbance with a high pressure located to the N NW of you .. 

IF the epo reloads and the PNA goes positive I would expect a trough in the east with below normal temperatures.  How much below? 30s?

[Jb1979]

This is a stupid argument. Of course there can be multiple snow threats in March in NYC. There were multiple snow threats in March in DC last year. It's not as likely but it's not exactly rare.

[uncle W]

some late March snowstorms...

amount dates

11.8" 3/20-21/1958

11.6" 3/18-19/1956

..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..6.5" 3/16-17/1956

..6.2" 3/18-19/1992

..5.5" 3/16/2007

..5.0" 3/22/1998

..4.9" 3/21-22/1964

..4.0" 3/29/1970

..4.1" 3/28-29/1996

..3.2" 3/29/1974

..3.3" 3/28-29/1984

..3.2" 3/22-23/1992

[snowman19]

This is a stupid argument. Of course there can be multiple snow threats in March in NYC. There were multiple snow threats in March in DC last year. It's not as likely but it's not exactly rare.

At the END of March it's very rare to have a snowstorm in NYC

[MJO812]

At the END of March it's very rare to have a snowstorm in NYC

Yes but it has happened plenty of times in the past along with snow in April.

[pazzo83]

And here we are March 5th going down to minus 3 tonight with that clock ticking ..

 

If a negative EPO and positive PNA evolve as suggested Post Day 10 it will put a trough in the east with below normal temperatures and keep snow threats alive while in place...despite that clock ticking 

 

The -EPO has a much smaller effect on our temps later in to March than it does in Jan/Feb.  The reason is already explained above.

[pazzo83]

after the March Thaw it could get as cold as 20 degrees after the 15th...I would not be surprised if NYC gets into the low 20's with another snowfall or two before it ends...

 

Now THIS is reasonable.   Low 20s in late March are atypical but certainly not unheard of.

[Jb1979]

Look at Uncle's post. It works out to once every 4 years or so. That's not really rare. -EPO can keep the snow chances around. Last March's -EPO regime kept winter in the Southern MidAtlantic until late March.

[Mophstymeo]

Late March / early April blizzard here we come

PB has been very good this winter, so who knows? What does DM have to say?

[uncle W]

Yes but it has happened plenty of times in the past along with snow in April.

since 1950 NYC has seen at least a two inch snowfall in 1956, 1957, 1982, 2003...the blizzard of 1982 stands out as the greatest April snowstorm on record for snow and cold...April 2003 was another all snow mid day event...1956 and 1957 was wet snow and rain...

[MJO812]

Don't look at the Euro weeklies if you like warm weather