End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015

[PB GFI]

[PB GFI]

This

No one wants it to get warmer more than me. I have softball season starting, $80 million worth of construction projects at work that are way behind schedule because of this crap and I'm having a house built that I need to move into by the end of April. but since this is a thread to talk about the actual upcoming weather and not fantasyland you have to be honest when looking at the pattern. it looks to me like a short period of possibly seasonal weather and then back into the relative freezer again

AGREED .  And you are going to go into a 15 day below normal period right after a short " warm up " . Relative to averages it will still be cold . It just has to be " cold enough " to snow .

[bluewave]

 

Notice the ridge trough progression further east from last year. Last winter into the spring the trough was located 

over the Great Lakes. In 2015 the trough is centered over the Northeast as we come off of the historic cold pattern in

February. So it should be no surprise to anyone when the trough digs into the east again and colder than normal

temperatures continue in the means for the foreseeable future. This -EPO/+PNA pattern is the real deal. The one

thing that the 2000's taught us is that the weather patterns have been very persistent with the -EPO based

blocking dominating from 2013 into 2015 so far. Likewise, 2005-2012 was defined by the record breaking

-AO pattern focusing the strongest blocking over Greenland.

 

This animation is all you need to know about the pattern progression to colder here this year.

 

http://www.weatherwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/output_MSU19Z.gif

[user13]

Prob the last shot of very cold air for the season

[PB GFI]

Notice the ridge trough progression further east from last year. Last winter into the spring the trough was located 

over the Great Lakes. In 2015 the trough is centered over the Northeast as we come off of the historic cold pattern in

February. So it should be no surprise to anyone when the trough digs into the east again and colder than normal

temperatures continue in the means for the foreseeable future. This -EPO/+PNA pattern is the real deal. The one

thing that the 2000's taught us is that the weather patterns have been very persistent with the -EPO based

blocking dominating from 2013 into 2015 so far. Likewise, 2005-2012 was defined by the record breaking

-AO pattern focusing the strongest blocking over Greenland.

 

This animation is all you need to know about the pattern progression to colder here this year.

 

http://www.weatherwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/output_MSU19Z.gif

If you look at the SST from last year to this year , the warmer water is def east of where it was last year . So back in DEC I used the exact same logic and said ok, that anomaly is displaced east , this is a layup the core of the COLD will over the NE .

So when Dec and Jan did not  look like Chicago from last year I said dam this AO is just killing this  . Lucky for us it just followed the POS ENSO "  back loaded ideas " .

This is why people who think ok it`s March it is just going to get warm and winter is over are in for rude awakening .

That  PAC water profile has not changed and true the normal increase but it is not April 15 - 30 we are talking about it is March 15- 30 so -15 departures are still cold enough for snow .

[snowman19]

AGREED . And you are going to go into a 15 day below normal period right after a short " warm up " . Relative to averages it will still be cold . It just has to be " cold enough " to snow .

I never said it can't snow past March 15th in NYC, of course it can that goes without saying. Snowstorms do become very rare March 15-31. Could it be below normal March 15-31? Highs in the 30's? Yes, absolutely. Highs in the 30's? Possible, Yep. Will it be riddled with multiple snowstorms during that period? Very highly doubtful and extremely unlikely

[Dan76]

I never said it can't snow past March 15th in NYC, of course it can that goes without saying. Snowstorms do become very rare March 15-31. Could it be below normal March 15-31? Highs in the 30's? Yes, absolutely. Highs in the 30's? Possible, Yep. Will it be riddled with multiple snowstorms during that period? Very highly doubtful and extremely unlikely

PB never said it was going to be riddled with multiple snow storms,just not the weather people think should be.

[BxEngine]

I never said it can't snow past March 15th in NYC, of course it can that goes without saying. Snowstorms do become very rare March 15-31. Could it be below normal March 15-31? Highs in the 30's? Yes, absolutely. Highs in the 30's? Possible, Yep. Will it be riddled with multiple snowstorms during that period? Very highly doubtful and extremely unlikely

WHO made any claim about it being riddled with multiple snowstorms? Quote it. Otherwise stop arguing straw men, its flat out trolling at this point.

[SomeWeatherGeek]

Winter is over in my opinion. I am expecting a warm and dry spring!

Edit: just looked at the latest guidance. Fantasy land but Canadian and GFS show this bring in more snow I would love a 93 type blizzard

[doncat]

I guess we're all used to the cold as I see very few posts about the cold this morning lol...with light winds and clear sky it got down to 7 here this morning...that's the lowest temp here for so late in the season and just 1 degree short of the lowest March reading...amazing cold.

[IrishRob17]

I guess we're all used to the cold as I see very few posts about the cold this morning lol...with light winds and clear sky it got down to 7 here this morning...that's the lowest temp here for so late in the season and just 1 degree short of the lowest March reading...amazing cold.

-1 here.  It looks like we have our January thaw for the next week or so.

[snowman19]

WHO made any claim about it being riddled with multiple snowstorms? Quote it. Otherwise stop arguing straw men, its flat out trolling at this point.

Atownweather said multiple snowstorm threats after March 15th, read his post from last night

[BxEngine]

Atownweather said multiple snowstorm threats after March 15th, read his post from last night

Threats != riddled with snowstorms.

[BxEngine]

Even worse, he said "will keep threats alive". Now, is it a reading comprehension issue, or are you purposely twisting words to fit your narrative?

[PB GFI]

Your opinion only matters in the banter thread. You can't back up " winter is over " I can back up it is not.

Now either you can be a child and wish cast warm weather

or you could look at the SST s the indices and what the models are showing you.

What you believe is irrelevant and easily disputed. Your call for winters over 2 weeks ago was as poor a forecast as your 24 hour snow forecast were.

You are really not good at forecasting and should stick to the banter threads . Around here we analyze 500mb charts

Pattern recognition, analogs and actual weather.

Your love of warmer weather is cute , but will b put on hold for another 3 plus weeks.

Phone responded to weather geek by accident.

This was meant for snowplow. Typing and driving

[SomeWeatherGeek]

Your opinion only matters in the banter thread. You can't back up " winter is over " I can back up it is not.

Now either you can be a child and wish cast warm weather

or you could look at the SST s the indices and what the models are showing you.

What you believe is irrelevant and easily disputed. Your call for winters over 2 weeks ago was as poor a forecast as your 24 hour snow forecast were.

You are really not good at forecasting and should stick to the banter threads . Around here we analyze 500mb charts

Pattern recognition, analogs and actual weather.

Your love of warmer weather is cute , but will b put on hold for another 3 plus weeks.

i never said winter was over 2 weeks ago Paul. I said we wouldn't have extreme cold such as single digits in the city which we haven't maybe tonight but I doubt it. My snow map was right on the money too

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PB GFI]

i never said winter was over 2 weeks ago Paul. I said we wouldn't have extreme cold such as single digits in the city which we haven't maybe tonight but I doubt it. My snow map was right on the money tooSent from my iPhone

Lol read edit

[doncat]

Correction to my previous post....radiated down to 6 degrees this morning...tied for lowest march temp here since 1977.

[pazzo83]

The Warm up is muted AGAIN it lasts about 5 days and that is it . ( which was opined here 2 weeks ago ) and can be found on the 1st 5 pages ) . Here comes POS PNA NEG EPO again . The trough will be back in the east by day 11 and you are looking at a possible 10 to 15 day stretch of 15 below normal .

So if your average H should be in the mid 40`s , you end up in the mid 30`s and by the end of the month your highs should be close to 50 , and you will not sniff that .

All of this is cold enough for snow if something comes along through the flow . - EPO has the same effect on the pattern in March , you force the jet off Asia ( where it is cold ) over the pole ( where it is cold ) a POS PNA means that low level cold air is forced through the lakes into the NE .

This is not hard . No one is calling for 0 or 10 , but highs In the mid 30`s and lows in the mid 20`s will make sure you don`t forget winter is not over .

GET OVER IT , The pattern dictates the weather , not probability and not ones frustration with cold weather .

So can I get you down for predicting a prolonged (> 7 days) period of -15 departures starting from the 3rd week of March? Is that what you are saying?

[Isotherm]

Correction to my previous post....radiated down to 6 degrees this morning...tied for lowest march temp here since 1977.

 

 

Got down to 3.1F here. Incredible. Apparently just missed a record, as the record for Freehold is 2F in 1978 for today.

[pazzo83]

Got down to 3.1F here. Incredible. Apparently just missed a record, as the record for Freehold is 2F in 1978 for today.

Got down to -3 back home in VA.

[Doorman]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

the local back yard snowmen...have booked a flight to Norway    

 

 

 

 

 

Day 8 PAC SPAG

Zonal flow 200mb=green grass

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/06/gefs-spag_npac_192_200_1176_ht.gif

[PB GFI]

So can I get you down for predicting a prolonged (> 7 days) period of -15 departures starting from the 3rd week of March? Is that what you are saying?

I think it's possible that it's a 10 day period of minus 10 against the norms .

If we go - 15 for 15 days I would not be shocked. But I like I told you 15 days ago back on the first 5 pages. Winter is not over.

That period looks to be between the 20th and 30th. The " warm up " is brief.

Looks pretty good so far.

[Heisy]

Don't look at the 12z GFS lol, springtime snowstorm Day 9-10

[pazzo83]

I think it's possible that it's a 10 day period of minus 10 against the norms .

If we go - 15 for 15 days I would not be shocked. But I like I told you 15 days ago back on the first 5 pages. Winter is not over.

That period looks to be between the 20th and 30th. The " warm up " is brief.

Looks pretty good so far.

You realize avg highs during that period are in the mid 50s right?

[IsentropicLift]

You realize avg highs during that period are in the mid 50s right?

If the modeling has any clue, you can toss the climo talks for awhile. How's a 1045mb high over Maine sound? Not warm.

[IsentropicLift]

Don't look at the 12z GFS lol, springtime snowstorm Day 9-10

We have a thread for this already. It's been on the GFS for like 100hrs already in one form or another.

[pazzo83]

If the modeling has any clue, you can toss the climo talks for awhile. How's a 1045mb high over Maine sound? Not warm.

For most of the season, the long range modeling hasn't had a clue.

[IsentropicLift]

For most of the season, the long range modeling hasn't had a clue.

The GFS has been excellent in sniffing out storms in the 7-10 day all Winter.

[Sactown4]

You realize avg highs during that period are in the mid 50s right?

The averages in that period are 51/37.

If we're 15 below that, and precipitation moves in, there's a chance of snow.

I'm not a weather guru, but that's just basic.