Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS is really consistent for the last few runs with respect to QPF totals/distribution. Gives all of western mass above the pike 2-4. The GFS being too far NW and too wet though...par for the course this winter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Went from warm cutter to dusting out here lol. A 3-4 day fail by all models. I wonder when BOX will start taking down advisories in areas. 10.8/-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A 3-4 day fail by all models. Were there any models that had this scenario in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Were there any models that had this scenario in the long range? I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A 3-4 day fail by all models. I wonder when BOX will start taking down advisories in areas. 10.8/-3 Yeah won't speak to advisories as I'm not paying much attention...I am still mainly wet here I think. But it's been a clear as day, steady shift SE with just a few runs here and there that bumped back NW. GFS is probably OTL again....go cold or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah won't speak to advisories as I'm not paying much attention...I am still mainly wet here I think. But it's been a clear as day, steady shift SE with just a few runs here and there that bumped back NW. GFS is probably OTL again....go cold and dry or go home. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest RPM is much much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Fixed. Is this the wind gauge for your Davis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Were there any models that had this scenario in the long range? Just the RevKev model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Is this the wind gauge for your Davis? lol Just the RevKev model. Even that may have been too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snowing and 21* at BWI. How well was that modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yes the RPM continues to come in colder, the R/S line barely makes it up to 84 then crashes. Now has 2-4 for half the state >4-6 for the other half with some pockets of 6-8 over tolland Hartford and windham counties. Big change from previous runs...seems to be cooling off on each consecutive run fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Is this the wind gauge for your Davis? Dont have one, expect it soon though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yes the RPM continues to come in colder, the R/S line barely makes it up to 84 then crashes. Now has 2-4 for half the state >4-6 for the other half with some pockets of 6-8 over tolland Hartford and windham counties. Big change from previous runs...seems to be cooling off on each consecutive run fwiw Reduce each of those ranges 50% and you'll be near storm totals. My final call: Up to 2" in NW mass, 3-4 for the rest, 3-5 for northern CT. Oh--and 7.5" in Lunenberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Weenie band north of the mix line? Jet still nosing in later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 the 925 sub freezing line is in coastal NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Reduce each of those ranges 50% and you'll be near storm totals. My final call: Up to 2" in NW mass, 3-4 for the rest, 3-5 for northern CT. Oh--and 7.5" in Lunenberg. Your final call is in. It might be time to step away for a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Reduce each of those ranges 50% and you'll be near storm totals. My final call: Up to 2" in NW mass, 3-4 for the rest, 3-5 for northern CT. Oh--and 7.5" in Lunenberg. That's just bitter-casting. You look fine for 4-6, cheer up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Reduce each of those ranges 50% and you'll be near storm totals. My final call: Up to 2" in NW mass, 3-4 for the rest, 3-5 for northern CT. Oh--and 7.5" in Lunenberg. Due to deep layer SW flow I think the western slopes up toward the crest could do relatively well with 4-6". A jackpot of 6-8" is possible in the Taconics and Rensselaer Plateau area. East slope gets shadowed somewhat this go around with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Perfectly actually. please stop. You're ruining the thread with this whining stuff. Kevin--take a look at the radar. The latitudinal gain is minimal. Part of that is due to evaporation on the northern edge, but the trajectory is primarily east, not north. Why does the insistence you had that it would be impossible for this to track inland not allow this to continue to pass south? The radar suggests most of the qpf falling perhaps as far north as the CT/RI coast, but the heaviest amounts will be south of that. The gradation was modeled, and observations show the continued trek south. Don't worry though, I think you'll still still be in the jackpot area. 13.6/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Kevin--take a look at the radar. The latitudinal gain is minimal. Part of that is due to evaporation on the northern edge, but the trajectory is primarily east, not north. Why does the insistence that it would be impossible for this to track inland not allow this to continue to pass south? The radar suggests most of the qpf falling perhaps as far north as the CT/RI coast, but the heaviest amounts will be south of that. The gradation was modeled, and observations show the continued trek south. Don't worry though, I think you'll still still be in the jackpot area. 13.6/-2 Every radar I'm looking at has precip moving NE..Unless you're drunk or your monitor is upside down I'm not sure what you're talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I mean what direction would folks say the ALB echoes are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Every radar I'm looking at has precip moving NE..Unless you're drunk or your monitor is upside down I'm not sure what you're talking about That's not how it appears on the weathertap regional animation. Maybe I'm wrong. Hell, it won't be the first time. But I don't think my eyes are lying. Still warming, but it's ways to go to my forecasted high of 25*. At least the sun's not shining as brightly through the clouds and the blue patches to the north have pretty much disappeared. 13.7/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I mean what direction would folks say the ALB echoes are showing? Kevin--you need a regional radar to see what's transpiring. The NWS regional one shows it, but it's much more evident on weathertap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 The last thing anyone should be using is a regional radar.You want to focus on localized individual areas. Not a view from 30,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Both of you are difficult to read right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM still likes to jackpot me to Kev and over to Ginxy. HRRR has heavy snow backing into eastern CT by midnight. 3" and plenty more to come. We snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The last thing anyone should be using is a regional radar.You want to focus on localized individual areas. Not a view from 30,000 feet. Unless you're tracking a thunderstorm, that is the most ridiculous comment I have ever heard you make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Both of you are difficult to read right now. I know--we're kind of sad aren't we? I'll try to be better--but I'm calling it like I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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