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Windspeed

Winter Storm Threat: Feb. 16th-18th, 2015

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While the NAM precip is obviously overdone (when I still lived in N.C. I remember a NAM QPF forecast being overdone by a factor of 3 for one storm), the most interesting thing to me is that it still has high pressure over N. England at 84 hours with north winds over N.C. If that's accurately depicted ....

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While the NAM precip is obviously overdone (when I still lived in N.C. I remember a NAM QPF forecast being overdone by a factor of 3 for one storm), the most interesting thing to me is that it still has high pressure over N. England at 84 hours with north winds over N.C. If that's accurately depicted ....

I would agree with overdone here too if Euro, and GFS weren't as close to what the NAM is projecting. 

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Here is the 6z and 12z NAM side by side for comparison.

6z on top/12z on bottom

95652b56a6f43ff1507ecce15961755d.jpg

Yeah almost identical with exception of GA, SC, and NC.  Our region its consistent, what I find interesting it looks like the NAM is slowly moving to the GFS in scenario of sorts.

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Guys, go check out the GEFS loop Wow posted in the SE forum. Great googly moogly.

You simply could not ask for a better look from a statewide Tennessee perspective. It could be years before we see anything like that again.

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Wonder if any of that is ice/sleet in Georgia/SC..Waiting game in my neck of the woods..Hopefully the trends stay the same but i need a little N/W shift..

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Years, or maybe next weekend. lol. J/K

Ha!  You know I cannot remember how far back I have to go to recall a time when we had snow on the ground, and more snow being added to it from another storm.

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Wonder if any of that is ice/sleet in Georgia/SC..Waiting game in my neck of the woods..Hopefully the trends stay the same but i need a little N/W shift..

I think you all will do ok especially if you are in higher terrain area of SE KY.

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Wonder if any of that is ice/sleet in Georgia/SC..Waiting game in my neck of the woods..Hopefully the trends stay the same but i need a little N/W shift..

I would say some of that is sleet/ice. WeatherBell maps includes all frozen precip types as snow. I'm sure other sites do about the same thing with a few tweaks to the algorithm here or there. I would rather be needing a NW shift instead of a SE one.

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Latest SREF plumes out to 0Z Wednesday:

 

Mem - Mean = 5" - Max 11"

BNA - Mean = 7" - Max 19"

CSV - Mean = 11" - Max 21"

CHA - Mean = 6" - Max 15"

TYS - Mean = 6.5" - Max 14"

TRI - Mean = 5.5" - Max 15"

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OHX Winter Storm Watch up:

 

 

 

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...


TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-150300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WC.Y.0002.150215T0900Z-150215T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...
LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
1003 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

* MAIN IMPACT...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS MAY LEAD TO FROSTBITE ON
UNPROTECTED SKIN. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

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12Z GFS much drier solution without extended backside low snows...

Yeah, it was pretty "meh" compared to what we have been looking at. Hoping the same tendency to lose the system in the 3-5 is at play here, but if be lying if I said it didn't give me pause this close to the event.

That said, till the GEFS, GGEM. EURO, and UKMET all come in with less I would pretty much toss it.

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Yeah, it was pretty "meh" compared to what we have been looking at. Hoping the same tendency to lose the system in the 3-5 is at play here, but if be lying if I said it didn't give me pause this close to the event.

That said, till the GEFS, GGEM. EURO, and UKMET all come in with less I would pretty much toss it.

Yep came in as just a slider...  Even with just a slider we all get nice snows across the entire region 3-6 totals seem reasonable for most everyone, not a bad storm even as a slider for a pretty terrible winter.  I guess beggers can't be choosers, but I do see MRX has a very difficult forecast.  If it turns the corner and cranks then totals go way up for the eastern 2/3 of the region.

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Yep, Robert is on board with a fairly major event, with the storm picking up the SW low really well. He has some info on his Facebook page. I'm ready for some winter!!

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Yep, Robert is on board with a fairly major event, with the storm picking up the SW low really well. He has some info on his Facebook page. I'm ready for some winter!!

Yes, I believe inlast night's post he mentioned "Tennesse" and " hammered" in the same sentence. :) North AL should do okay with 2-4 and maybe some ice (yuk).

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Yep, Robert is on board with a fairly major event, with the storm picking up the SW low really well. He has some info on his Facebook page. I'm ready for some winter!!

I would love to see it grab the baja low and crank out with rapid deepening up through the carolinas.  Thats what I think the NAM was just starting to grab on to at the end of its run.  There is talk that until we get nearly on top of the storm we won't know as sampling of the baja area is next to nothing.  

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